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EIA lowers US 2020 crude production estimate to 13.18 mbpd from 13.29 mbpd prior

EIA lowers 2020 supply outlook after OPEC

  • Sees supply for 2020 at 102.29 mbpd vs 102.58 mbpd prior
  • Demand seen at 102.14 mbpd vs 102.27 mbpd prior
  • EIA forecasts OPEC crude oil production will average 29.3 million b/d in 2020, down by 0.5 million b/d from 2019
  • Latest report
The swing producer in the world is now shale. In this report, the EIA said it expects total US crude oil and petroleum net exports to average 570,000 bpd in 2020 but that’s down from 750,000 bpd in last month’s estimate.
They continue to see a rise of 0.9 mbpd in US production this year, that’s slower than the 1.3 mbpd rise this year but still above private forecasts, which have fallen to 0.6 mbpd (and lower).

IEA cuts 2014 global oil demand forecast by 60k to 1.29mbpd

  • Cuts 2014 forecast for non OPEC oil supply growth by 250k to 1.5mbpd
  • Lower Russian projections drive estimates lower
  • OPEC crude supply fell in March by 890k to 29.62mbpd on Iraq, Libya & Saudi
  • Says market balances indicate OPEC will need to raise output in second half of year
  • OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 6.5m in Feb to 2.567tn barrels

Brent crude has been looking slightly cheaper on the cut in demand forecast and the 108.30/50 level is still the level that needs to be broken for a push up.