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Characteristics of Bear Market

  
  Education
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  • Sellers are in control
  • Oversold often stays oversold for a long time
  • Markets drop a lot faster than they go up
  • Bear markets burn and churn accounts with long only exposure
  • Volume and liquidity can dry up but price can still drop significantly
  • ‘Cheap’ can get a lot ‘cheaper’
  • Hope is slowly destroyed
  • Vicious bear market rallies try to suck in traders to trap them
  • Expect lots of gaps to the downside
  • It takes a long time until market participants throw in the towel

This is appropriate trading behaviour during bear markets:

  • Either in cash or short
  • Sell the rallies mentality
  • Do NOT buy the dips
  • Do not even think about going long if you are not an active and experienced trader

Learning From Mistakes

  
  Education
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Layout 1The ability to learn from mistakes is an important part of the skill development process. In addition, those who trade well tend to adopt a “perpetual student” mentality toward the markets which also helps keep their ego in check.

However, learning from mistakes you make is not as simple as it sounds. Equally important and challenging is figuring out which mistakes offer a lesson and which mistakes are just a routine part of trading. For example, sometimes I run into traders who think that in every losing trade there is a lesson to be learned and that’s simply not true unless you see a specific pattern repeated in other unsuccessful trades. As any experienced trader will tell you, a trader can make all of the right moves and their analysis may be 100% correct, but that doesn’t guarantee a successful and profitable trade. Perfection and trading well do not go hand in hand and not all unsuccessful trades offer a lesson to be learned. It is in the ready identification of patterns when making mistakes that you see within the more experienced and high performers.

Be Imperfect

  
  Education
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imperfectAs a trader – or an investor – you will not be right all of the time. If you can accept your imperfection, and work within it, you will be much more successful:

 

If you have a perfectionist mentality when trading, you are setting yourself up for failure, because it is a “given” that you will experience losses along the way. You must begin to think of trading as a game of probability. Your losses ( that you hope will return to breakeven) will kill you. If you cannot take a loss when it is small ( because of the need to be perfect), then you will watch that small loss grow into a larger loss and so on into a vicious cycle of more and more pain for the perfectionist. Trading on hope does not work. The markets can remain irrational for a lot longer than you can remain solvent.

The object should be excellence in trading, not perfection. Moreover, it is essential to strive for excellence over a sustained period, as opposed to judging that each trade must be excellent. This is a marathon…not a sprint.

The greatest traders know how to take cut losses and let winning positions run. Perfectionists often do exactly the opposite. They get in at the wrong time, stay in too long and then get out the wrong time. Perfectionists are always striving and never arriving. The market will find the flaw in a perfectionistic trader and exploit it day after day.

21 Ways Rich People Think Differently

  
  Education
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1. Average people think MONEY is the root of all evil. Rich people believe POVERTY is the root of all evil.

2. Average people think selfishness is a vice. Rich people think selfishness is a virtue.

3. Average people have a lottery mentality. Rich people have an action mentality.

4. Average people think the road to riches is paved with formal education. Rich people believe in acquiring specific knowledge.

 5. Average people long for the good old days. Rich people dream of the future.

6. Average people see money through the eyes of emotion. Rich people think about money logically.

7. Average people earn money doing things they don’t love. Rich people follow their passion.

8. Average people set low expectations so they’re never disappointed. Rich people are up for the challenge.

9. Average people believe you have to DO something to get rich. Rich people believe you have to BE something to get rich. (more…)

Not A One Way Train

  
  Education
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Words of wisdom from Dave Landry’s new book, The Layman’s Guide To Trading Stocks:

Wall Street Myth 1: The market always goes up longer term

It seems to be universally preached that the market “always goes up longer term.” And, all you have to do is buy a diversified mutual fund or index fund and wait. The problem is that markets do not always go up longer term. Well, I suppose it all depends on what you mean by longer term.

Suppose you bought stocks in 1929 at the market peak. Provided you could have held through a 90% loss, it would then have taken you a quarter of a century just to get back to breakeven.

Let’s say you bought stocks in the mid-1960’s. Your return would have been almost zero until the market finally broke out in 1983, which was 17 years later.

When I began this chapter, I was concerned that there might be a “that was then, this is now” mentality. After all, the benchmark S&P 500 wasn’t far below breakeven from the 2000 peak. I thought I was going to have to make a strong case for not buying and holding. Unfortunately for the buy and hold crowd, the market made my case for me. The bear market that began in late 2007 would turn out to be the worst since 1929. By March 2009, the S&P was at 13-year lows. From these lows, the market will have to rally over 200 percent just to get to breakeven.

At more than one cocktail party, I have had people laugh in my face when I tell them that the market can go 25 years or more without going up. This has made for some heated discussions and awkward social situations. I have since learned from Dale Carnegie and my wife Marcy to just nod my head and enjoy my drink. Do not take my word for it, just look at the charts and grab me a Black and Tan while you are at it!

Beliefs of Winning Traders

  
  Education
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winner1

Winners share certain behaviors and beliefs. Check to see if you possess the traits and beliefs of winning traders !!!

  1. If you have the belief that you will win, you increase your chances of trading to win. In order to have this level of conviction, you must have a thoroughly-tested plan. You also must have a clear vision of how you will proceed with your plan to reach your goal. The more detailed you can visualize your goals being achieved, the more you will strengthen your internal belief and confidence that you will reach your goals.
  2. I’m sure you’ve heard the saying “I didn’t plan to fail; I failed to plan.” Without a plan, your results will tend to be mixed and uninspiring. Commit to writing down your trading plan, and make sure you can answer the questions found in a recent TrendWatch on creating your trading plan. (more…)

Be Imperfect

  
  Education
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As a trader – or an investor – you will not be right all of the time. If you can accept your imperfection, and work within it, you will be much more successful:

If you have a perfectionist mentality when trading, you are setting yourself up for failure, because it is a “given” that you will experience losses along the way. You must begin to think of trading as a game of probability. Your losses ( that you hope will return to breakeven) will kill you. If you cannot take a loss when it is small ( because of the need to be perfect), then you will watch that small loss grow into a larger loss and so on into a vicious cycle of more and more pain for the perfectionist. Trading on hope does not work. The markets can remain irrational for a lot longer than you can remain solvent.

The object should be excellence in trading, not perfection. Moreover, it is essential to strive for excellence over a sustained period, as opposed to judging that each trade must be excellent. This is a marathon…not a sprint.

The greatest traders know how to take cut losses and let winning positions run. Perfectionists often do exactly the opposite. They get in at the wrong time, stay in too long and then get out the wrong time. Perfectionists are always striving and never arriving. The market will find the flaw in a perfectionistic trader and exploit it day after day.

What's the difference between winning traders and losing traders?

  
  Education
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winners-and-losers1Well, first, there are a few similarities. Both are completely consumed by the idea of trading. The winners as well as losers have committed to doing this, and have no intention of ‘going back’. This same black-and-white mentality was evident in their personal lives too. But what about the differences? Here’s what Williams observed:

The losing traders have unrealistic expectations about the kind of profits they can make, typically shooting too high. They also debate with themselves before taking a trade, and even dwell on a trade well after it’s closed out. But the one big thing Williams noticed about this group was that they paid little attention to money management (i.e. defense).And the winners? This group has an intense focus on money management, and will voluntarily exit a trade if it’s not moving – even if it’s not losing money at that time! There is also very little internal dialogue about trade selection and trade management; this group just takes action instead of suffering analysis paralysis. Finally, the winning traders focused their attention on a small niche in the market or a few techniques, rather than trying to be able to do everything. Hopefully the second description fits you a little better, but if the first one seems a little too familiar, you now at least know how to start getting past that barrier.

Confidence in Trading: The Approach

  
  Education
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CONFIDENCE01
Have you ever seen a gorgeous goddess?  A woman so magnificent you just are beeming energy inside to go talk to her?  But as you walk over you start to notice how you’re walking, what facial gestures you’re making, where your hands are, confidence fading… You’re becoming self-conscious and that wonderful feeling of excitement has now turned into fear.  Do you remember the last time you talked to a woman in this energy? In this self-conscious / fear mentality?  Didn’t go so well did it?  Why is a stock any different?

It’s all about the approach and mental confidence prior to the trade.  When you approach an event with fear that energy gets transferred into it.  I’ve talked about how The Energy of Fear is Consumption in this prior post.  So if you’re feeling nervous before a trade take note of this.  Where is this fear coming from? Is it related to money? Lack of confidence in yourself? Lack of self worth? It could be a million different things but you need to find and focus on the one that resonates with you.  I’m currently working on a meditation that will assist you through the process of finding this fear and making it your ally.

Remember the emotion will come during the “approach.” Keep track of how you feel, as this will set the course of how the rest of your interaction with the trade will go.  Keep in mind that magnificent woman: Do you approach her as nervous, not confident, and fearful of reject or strong, confident and full of love?

Uncertain Outcome, Consistent Result

  
  Education
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Every trader knows trading is a probability game. However, very few can internalize and live by the true meaning of what it means to be a probability game.

Mark Douglas, the author of “Trading in the Zone”, explains it well.     Someone who masters the probability game produces uncertain outcome but consistent result.   The best example to illustrate this concept is the casino business.     The casino holds on the average 4.5% probability advantage over the player. It does not know whether the next hand will be a winner or a loser against the player, but the casino is certain that they always win given enough bets.     Therefore casinos do not care if a player is going through a winning streak, as long as he is not cheating.

That’s exactly how traders need to think about his trades.    Market is random.    Anything can happen to the current trade.   A trader can increase his probability of winning either through fundamental or technical analysis but the best analysis can never produce a 100% certainty.  In reality, the highest win rate that the best analysis can produce is far from 100%.   However,  as long as the trader has a trading plan that can produce positive expected value,  he can expect consistent result over a reasonably large number of trades,  just like the casino. (more…)

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