Archives of “Li Li (badminton)” tag

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Major indices break winning streaks

  
Analysis, US Market
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S&P and NASDAQ break a today winning streak. Dow industrial average breaks its 4 day winning streak

The major indices have broken their recent winning streaks. Admittedly the NASDAQ and the S&P index is at only reason for 2 straight days, but the Dow industrial average had a 4 day winning streak snapped in trading today.

The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index -10.99 points or -0.34% at 3215.57
  • NASDAQ index -76.66 points or -0.73% at 10473.83
  • Dow industrial average -135.39 points or -0.50% at 26734.73
Below are the percentage changes and percentage high low ranges for the North American and European indices. Apart from the Italian FTSE MIB and the Portuguese PSI 20, the major indices all closed lower today.
S&P and NASDAQ break a today winning streak. Dow industrial average breaks its 4 day winning streak_After the close Netflix showed a greater than expected rise in new subscribers (10.1 million vs. 8.2M estimate),. But forecast Q3 subscribers much less than expectations at 2.5 million vs. 5.1 million estimate

European shares end the session with mixed results

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Italy and Portugal indices move higher

the major European indices are ending the session with mixed results. Germany, France, UK and Spain show declines while Italy and Portugal eked out gains. The closes are showing:

  • German DAX, -0.43%
  • France’s CAC, -0.42%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, -0.62%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.2%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.3%
  • Portugal’s PSI 20, +0.95%
Italy and Portugal indices move higher_
In the European debt market, benchmark 10 year yields fell across the board with UK yields down the most at -2.8 basis points.
European 10 year yieldsIn other markets as London/European traders look to exit:
  • spot gold $-4.25 or -0.23% $1806.05. The high for the day reached $1813.48. The low extended to $1802.97
  • WTI crude oil futures fell $0.19 or -0.46% to $41.01. It’s high price reached $41.18 while the low extended to $40.60. The September contract is currently down $0.21 or -0.51% of $41.19
In the forex market,
  • GBPUSD. The GBPUSD is trading at new session highs in the currently hourly bar. In the process, the price has moved back above its 200 and 100 hour moving average. That tilted the bias back to the upside in what has been an up and down market over the last 7 or so trading days. On the topside a trendline connecting highs from this we currently comes in at 1.2634. The high from yesterday reached 1.26487. The high for the week on Monday reached 1.26652.
  • EURUSD: The EURUSD moved higher in the London session after finding support buyers near the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the Friday low at 1.13759. The high price reached 1.1441. The high price from yesterday reached 1.14512. There is close support at 1.14223 area

ECB leaves rates unchanged, as expected

  
  Analysis
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ECB continues to reiterate stands ready to adjust all of its instruments

ECB continues to reiterate stands ready to adjust all of its instruments
  • Full statement
  • Prior statement
  • Interest rates to remain at present or lower until it has seen inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to but below 2% within its protection horizons (repeat)
  • No change to rate tiering multiplier
  • Will continue purchases under PEPP with a total envelope of 1,350B euros
  • Will continue to fully invest maturing securities at least through end-2022
  • PEPP will run at least through end of June 2021
  • The ECB cites ‘very high takeup’ of TLTRO-III
  • In its June forecast the ECB saw GDP down 8.7% in 2020 and up 5.2% in 2021
There are no changes here whatsoever. The euro chopped around 1.1400 on the release but has ticked up to 1.1410 since.

IMF’s Georgieva: Rising global debt levels are a serious concern

  
  Analysis
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Comments by IMF chief, Kristalina Georgieva

Kristalina Georgieva
  • But warns against premature withdrawal of fiscal support
  • Monetary policy should remain accommodative
  • Global economy is “not out of the woods yet”
  • Second major virus wave could case further disruptions
  • Job losses, bankruptcies, industry restructuring poses significant challenges

Some token remarks as a whole, but the headline comment is going to be an issue that is likely reverberate across politics and markets in the decade to come.

Regardless, these high debt levels aren’t going anywhere and when the next crisis comes along, we’ll be back here talking about the same thing with zero lessons learned.

China Industrial Production +4.8% y/y (expected 4.8%) Retail Sales -1.8% y/y (expected 0.5%)

  
  Analysis
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China activity data for June 2020

  • Industrial Production +4.8% y/y vs. expected 4.8%, prior was 4.4%
  • industrial production YTD -1.3% y/y vs. expected -1.5%, prior was -2.8%
  • Fixed Assets (excluding rural) YTD -3.1% y/y vs. expected -3.3%, prior was -6.3%
  • Retail Sales -1.8% y/y vs. expected 0.5%, prior was -2.8%
  • Retail Sales YTD -11.4% y/y vs. expected -11.2%, prior was -13.5%

more to come

A huge Twitter hack appears to be underway

  
  Analysis
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Elon Musk and crypto exchanges targeted

The Twitter accounts of many the largest cryptocurrency exchanges and influences appear to have been hacked, along with Elon Musk and others. They’re directing people to make bitcoin donations. Some on the list:
  • Cz
  • Binance
  • Gemini
  • Bitlord
  • Coindesk
  • Justin sun
  • Kucoin
  • Coinbase
  • Charlie lee(Satoshi lite)
  • Gate.io
  • Angelobtc
  • Tron
  • Bitcoin
It’s tough to imagine that the were hacked individually. Rather this looks like it’s something internally via twitter or some third party service involved with twitter. That looks bad for the company.
Elon Musk and crypto exchanges targeted
Let me tell you, if I wanted to make money and could hack Elon’s account, I would be buying TSLA puts/calls, rather than asking for Bitcoin donations.
Update: They got Bill Gates too.

S&P index leads the way. NASDAQ lags but closes higher for the 2nd straight day

  
Analysis, US Market
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S&P index closes just below breakeven level for 2020

The US stocks are ending the session with gains across the board. The gains are led by the S&P index which rose by 0.91%. The NASDAQ index lagged, but still gained 0.59%.

For the S&P index, it toyed with closing above the breakeven level for the year for the 1st time since February 25. However, that quest failed. The index is ending the day 0.13% from that breakeven level (2019 closes at 3230.78 while the close today is at 3226.56).

This week there has been a rotation out of the high flying tech stocks vs. the broader/industrial stocks. For the last 5 trading days the Dow industrial average is up 3.08% and the S&P index is up 1.79%, while the tech heavy NASDAQ index is up only 0.55%.
Nevertheless both the NASDAQ and the S&P index are up for 2 consecutive days. The Dow is riding a 4 day win streak.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index +29.03 points or 0.91% at 3226.55
  • NASDAQ index up 61.915 points or 0.59% at 10550.49
  • Dow up 227.51 points or 0.85% at 26870.10.
Will tomorrow be the day for the S&P index to close the black? Maybe, but going forward headline news from more earnings releases, coronavirus cases, vaccines and therapeutics will continue to exert their influences. Each of which could upset the apple cart in a bullish or bearish direction.

DOE crude oil inventories for July 10 week -7.493M vs -2.098 million estimate

  
  Analysis
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DOE crude oil inventories for the week of July 10, 2020

  • crude oil inventories -7.493 million vs. -2.1 million estimate
  • gasoline inventories -3.147 million vs. -1.3 million estimate
  • distillates inventories -0.453 million vs. 1.5 million estimate
  • Cushing OK crude inventories 0.949 million vs. 2 point to 0 6 million last week
  • US refinery utilization 0.6% vs. 0.5% estimate
  • crude oil implied demand 17637 vs. 17586 last week
  • gasoline implied demand 9248.4 vs. 9290.0 last week
  • distillates implied demand 5023.7 vs. 4380.1 last week
The private API data released near the close of yesterday’s trade showed a bigger than expected drawdown of -8.322. Today’s crude oil inventory data was below the API data by about 900 K. Below are the private data results:
DOE crude oil inventories for the week of July 10, 2020
Crude oil is trading at $40.50 just prior to the report. The current price is trading at $40.64

BOJ’s Kuroda: Economic activity has gradually resumed

  
Analysis, Economy
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BOJ governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, begins his press conference

Kuroda
  • But Japanese economy remains in an extremely severe siituation
  • Pace of recovery to only be moderate
  • Inflation is likely to be negative for the time being
  • Future economic developments remain extremely unclear
  • Risks are tilted to the downside for prices, economic growth
  • BOJ won’t hesitate to ease further if needed
  • Will continue to support corporate financing, markets
Kuroda is still maintaining a more subdued take on the economic situation but that is hardly a surprise. The recent economic data from Japan have been rather poor and a possible virus resurgence only adds to more risks surrounding the outlook.
But Kuroda stands firm in assuring that the BOJ policies since March are having an impact, though I’m sure they pretty much lucked out on this one with the Fed and ECB doing most of the heavy lifting to appease financial risks in the market for the most part.

Way to Time an Entry for a Position Trade

  
Analysis, Education
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Green Vinyl Entry Signage, Thickness: 3 To 10 Mm ,Shape: Square ...For position trades, you may not want to be too involved in the intraday timing for your entry. Nonetheless, rather than just buying at a random time, e.g. at the open or at the close, your entry price can be improved by taking note of the intraday trend using some quick-and-dirty methods.

A quick-and-dirty way to determine the trend is to say that if price is above the 50-period SMA, and the 50-period SMA is sloping upwards, then it is an uptrend. Reverse those conditions for a downtrend.

Now say you want to take a long position

  • If the intraday chart shows an uptrend based on the method above, then immediately enter your position.
  • If the intraday chart shows a downtrend, wait for the trend to change to up, then enter immediately.

If you want to take a short position, reverse the instructions above. If you want to add some complexity to trend determination, you can also add in an additional condition for higher highs and higher lows for uptrend, and lower highs and lower lows for downtrend.

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