Archives of “investors” tag

rss

Successful Traders Must Have Discipline

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Discipline is paramount for success over the LONG term. Every trader has a limited amount of capital (money) available to trade. The trader without discipline will make trades, be quick take the profit when he is right, and call his trade an investment when he is wrong. 

This action of cutting winners and letting losers run will almost certainly eventually lead to trading capital being wiped out. The natural tendency in humans is to take profits.  Learning to cut losing positions and let winners run is a skill that must be developed. 

 Have you ever caught yourself saying any of the following statements to justify inaction on cutting a losing position?

  •  I am holding on to this trade and hoping it recovers 
  • If I didn’t own it already I would be buying it here
  • I just want to get back to break even and then I will get out
  • The market is wrong

Everyone has said these things at some point in their trading lives, but let me tell you, any time your position requires HOPE it is likely HOPELESS!

If you say I would buy it here and you don’t want to buy more – you may be better off selling what you have!

The market doesn’t know or care what price you bought a position. The market price of a stock is the value of that stock right here, right now!  Even though the market presents opportunities, market pricing is not WRONG. 

While I am not giving buy sell or hold advice, I would strongly recommend that when you find yourself staring at a losing position consider selling it! If you  close it out completely,  you can really make an honest determination when you ask yourself, “Do I REALLY want to own it here?” 

Too often I see traders let their existing positions do the talking for them. Don’t fall into that trap!

Book Review: No One Would Listen

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

This is a book about Harry Markopolos, who is the author of this book.  He talks about how he attempted  for years to expose the fraud that was Bernie Madoff.

The book takes the following form (from my view of how the author sees it):

  • How he came to a quick conclusion that Bernie Madoff was a fraud.
  • How he tried to convince others of that view, especially those that were feeding more money to Madoff.
  • Two journalists took his side and wrote about Madoff in 2001 or so, but to no avail.
  • Trying to come up with a similar strategy that would work, though it would return much less than Madoff’s supposed returns, and finding few would invest in it.
  • Fruitless wranglings with the clueless SEC.
  • Finally, in 2009, Madoff blows up.
  • Vindicated, he talks to the media, Congress, and anyone who will listen.
  • He excoriates the toothless SEC, and proposes better ways to root out financial fraud.

That’s the book in a nutshell.  But stylistically, the book harps on how no one would listen.  Well, duh.  No one did listen, or the book would have been over sooner.

People are not Vulcans.  They aren’t logical.  Most don’t think; instead, they mimic.  “If it works for him, it will work for me also.”

That was the case with Madoff.  He maneuvered many sheep into position to be fleeced, and worse, they begged for the privilege to be his clients.

There were many red flags flying:

  • No independent custodian
  • No independent Trustee
  • Small Auditor, incapable of auditing such an enterprise.
  • Returns were too smooth for being so high.
  • The asset size was to large for the markets supposedly employed.
  • Even front-running profits would not be enough, were Madoff to do that.
  • No profit motive.  Other managers with lesser track records charged more.
  • Marketing was by invitation.
  • Investors were sworn to secrecy.
  • And more, read the book. (more…)

What does Money Management do for a Trader?

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Money management keeps them in the game of trading. It is a game and there are winners and losers. The vast majority are losers. More than 90%! Once traders realize they need an exact plan…traders retool their approach, once they analyzed their trading system with money management concepts. Money management keeps traders …trading…

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts, commodity options or forex can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results. You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.

Creative Responsibility

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

“What good can come from comfort? It’s not going to be art. I think there’s a false ideal out there, to some people — maybe younger people — they might think “I could be an artist and I don’t have to work.”

“But I think calling yourself an artist, you have to work three times as hard as someone with a punch-clock job. Because if you punch in, you have a responsibility at your job, but you can also do what you’re told, and work the machine, whatever you’re doing, do whatever is already there for you… do what’s expected of you of that job.

“But if you are an artist and you have to create something from nothing — there is nothing on this canvas, nothing on this tape, we have to create something that didn’t exist before — that’s ultra-responsibility, super-responsibility isn’t it.”

– Jack White (via Conan O’ Brien)

Traders and investors bear a “creative responsibility” in respect to creating something from nothing… starting with a blank canvas (portfolio) and producing profitable and worthwhile results over time.

This notion reflects the craftsmanship embedded in the investment process… trade selection… methodology and process design…

As an active market participant, do you see yourself as an artist too? How do you embrace the creative responsibility that comes with such?

Trading Wisdom

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Markets are highly random and are very, very close to being efficient.

If you are a new trader, trading is probably harder than you think it can be. If you’ve been trading a while, you know this. Financial markets are one of the most competitive environments in the modern world. New information is quickly processed and incorporated into prices. This means that you cannot outsmart the market consistently. You cannot invest based on what you think makes sense or should happen because you are up against investors with superior access to information, knowledge, experience, capital and other resources. Most of the time, markets move in a more or less random fashion; you can’t make money if market movements are random. (“Efficient”, in this context, is an academic term that basically means that all available information is reflected in prices.)

It is impossible to make money trading without an edge.

There are many ways to create an edge in the markets, but one this is true—it is very, very hard to do so. Most things that people say work in the market do not actually work. Treat claims of success and performance with healthy skepticism. I can tell you, based on my experience of nearly twenty years as a trader, most people who say they are making substantial profits are not. This is a very hard business.

Every edge we have is driven by an imbalance of buying and selling pressure.

The world divides into two large groups of traders and investors: fundamental traders who base decisions off of financial analysis, understanding of the industry and a company’s competitive position, growth rates, assessment of management, etc. Technical traders base decisions off of patterns in prices, volume or related data. From a technical perspective, every edge we have is generated by a disagreement between buyers and sellers. When they are in balance (equilibrium), market movements are random.

Jim Rogers: Here's The Most Important Thing On What Investors Should Do

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #
I would say one lesson we all need to learn is that after you’ve had a great success, you really should be very worried. Let’s say you sell and say you’ve made 10 times on your money. You should be extremely worried. You should close the curtains, not read, look at the TV, or anything because that’s when you’re full of hubris, arrogance, confidence. You think, “God, this is something easy,” and you’re desperate to jump around to something new. You should do your very best to avoid making another play until you’ve calmed down a lot. Just wait. It’s a very dangerous time for any investor.

Likewise, if you take a huge loss and there’s a big panic and things are dumped on your head because you’re overextended or wrong for whatever reason, calm down, don’t say, “I’m never gonna invest in stocks again or commodities or whatever.” That’s the time you really should be willing to invest again if you can gather together some capital money. The investments can be terribly emotional. You have to figure out a way to control your emotions and deal with your emotions if you’re going to survive in these markets.

My advice is that, most of the time, most investors should do nothing. They should look out the window or go to the beach. You should wait until you see money lying in the corner and all you have to do is go over and pick it up. That’s how most investors should invest. The problem is we all think we need to jump around all the time and be jumping in and out and that’s not good. (more…)

Two Mistakes frequently made by Stock Traders

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

The first big mistake is the flawed logic of extrapolation. Many traders and investors assume that a trend will remain in force until an “event” comes along to change it. But market trends are not like billiard balls on a pool table. This false assumption will put you on the wrong side of the market more times than not, especially at major turning points.

The second big mistake is to suppose that news events drive market trends. In fact, the opposite is true: economic, political and social events lag market trends.

Forint Slide Accelerates As Hungarian Default Risk Now 14 Wider To 277bps

  
Economy, Education, Forex
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Poor, poor Europe. Every room one shines a light in, the cockroaches don’t even bother to scurry to safety any more. Yet what is glaringly obvious takes a media-reported soundbite to awake people. So is the case with Hungary today. After opening 7 tighter, Hungarian CDS are now 14 bps wider to 277bps. As the attached chart shows, the Hungarian Forint is now in freefall. Yet if investors are concerned about Hungary, they should take a look at some of its less lucky Eastern European neighbors which, just like Hungary, have been considered to be strong for so long.

Greece – About to Hit the Panic Button?

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Well it would appear that all the talk of the European Union and the IMF standing at the ready did not calm the markets when it was being discussed over the past month. It was hoped that the markets would be calmed if they knew that Greece had support from its neighbors.

That was Plan A, now it is time for Plan B, or C, D, E…

The Greek government’s cost of borrowing has hit a new high as talks on a joint eurozone and International Monetary Fund (IMF) rescue plan begin.

The interest rate on 10-year government bonds hit 8.3% – the highest since the euro was introduced.

Rates rose as it became clear that talks over the aid package may not be finished until days before a multi-billion-euro loan is due for repayment.

Investors are becoming more convinced that Greece will need to be rescued.

Greece’s finance ministry said the talks with the European Commission and the IMF would take about two weeks, with a joint text issued on about 15 May. […] (BBC)

It would appear that Greece is about to hit the button

Wednesday, April 21, 2010 1:27:13 PM
Greece Fin Min: Will make decision on whether or not to trigger the aid mechanism soon – Notes that the IMF will have discussions over the competitiveness of the country. No further austerity measures this year are likely.

Warren Buffett's Worst Trade & Biggest Mistake

  
Analysis, Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Investors always remember their worst trade or biggest mistake. Warren Buffett is no different. However, Buffett’s biggest mistake might surprise you. In an interview with CNBC, the Oracle of Omaha admitted that the worst trade of his career was buying Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A). Imagine that. But if you dig deeper into his account of the story, you’ll see that while his worst trade might have been buying Berkshire Hathaway, his biggest mistake was letting emotion get the better of him.

Embedded below is the video where Buffett talks about his worst trade in Berkshire Hathaway

Go to top