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European major indices end their nightmare of a day

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Major indices down over 7%

The European stock markets are now close for the day and the nightmare is over.  The major indices all closed over 7% lower.   For the year the declines are near the -20% level. Ouch.
The provisional closes for the major indices are showing:
  • German DAX, -7.4%
  • France’s CAC, -7.9%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, -7.3%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -8.1%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -11.1%
For the trading year, the provisional changes are showing
  • German DAX, -19.8%
  • France’s CAC, -20.67%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, -20.3%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -18.9%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -20.3%
In other markets as London/European traders look to exit:
  • spot gold is down $6.20 or -0.37% at $1667
  • WTI crude oil futures are down $8 or -19.43% at $33.26
In the US stock market:
  • S&P index is down -169 points or -5.7% the 2802
  • NASDAQ index is down -425 points or 4.98% at 8148
  • Dow is down -1600 points or -6.2% at 24263
In the US debt market yields remain sharply lower.
Major indices down over 7%_

US stock futures fall to session lows as New York rolls in

  
Analysis, US Market
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It’s going to be an interesting one

It's going to be an interesting one
S&P 500 futures are down 94 points following a 106 point decline yesterday. That more-than wipes out there 2% gain so far this week.
It’s a bloodbath in Europe as well with all the main indexes down around 3.5%.
What’s frightening is the drop in bond yields. US 10-year yields are down a whopping 17 basis points to 0.75% after falling to as low as 0.69%. Those numbers are below the T-bill yield of 0.755% and Fed funds. That’s a fresh inversion despite a 50 basis point cut on Tuesday.
With those declines, the dollar’s yield advantage is getting wiped out and as a result it’s falling sharply against the low yielders — JPY, CHF and EUR. I expect to see some additional dollar weakness but we’re fast-approaching the lower bound and the Fed has been steadfast that it won’t go negative. Once we get there, I think the dollar will start to appreciate again on safe haven flows.

Another sharp day down in the major US indices

  
Analysis, PODCAST, US Market
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Yields fall to new lows

The risk off flows continued in the US stock market and debt market.
The Dow industrial average was down over 1000 points at 1 point during the day. The S&P index fell below the 3000 level briefly before rebounding in the last hour of trading.
In the US debt market yields resumed their downward bias after yesterdays modest rebound.
The final numbers for the major indices are showing:
  • S&P index -106.18 points or -3.39% at 3023.94. The low price extended to 2999.83. The high was up at 3083.04
  • NASDAQ index fell -279.49 points or -3.10% at 8738.59. The low price reached 8677.387. The high price extended to 8921.078
  • Dow industrial average fell minus this 969.58 points or -3.58% at 26121.28. The low price extended to 25943.33. The high price reached 26671.92
In the US debt market the 10 year yield fell to a new record low level of 0.898%. It is currently trading at 0.91%. That is still down -14.2 basis points on the day. The yield curve flattening a bit to 32.49 basis points from close to 36 basis points the close yesterday, but all maturity levels fell by over -10 basis points.

US yields tumbled lower

European shares end the session with sharp declines

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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German DAX -1.8%

The major European shares are ending the session with sharp declines. For the year, the major European indices are also in the red.  A look at the provisional closes are showing:

  • German DAX, -1.8%
  • France’s CAC, -2.0%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, -1.9%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -2.4%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -1.4%
For the year, changes are all in the red led by a 7% decline in the UK FTSE 100.
  • German DAX, -3.4%
  • France’s CAC, -5%
  • UK’s FTSE, -7%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -3.1%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -1.6%
In other markets as the European/London traders look to exit are showing:
  • Gold is still negative. It is trading down $10.80 or -0.65% at $1648.10. The spot price tried rebound and move higher on the fall in stocks, but seems to have sellers above. Recall that in yesterday’s trade, there was a large seller reported in the futures market which helped push the price lower in the New York afternoon session
  • WTI crude oil futures are following the risk off sentiment with the contract trading down -$0.89 or -1.7% at $50.54. The price is not far off the low at $50.37. The high reached $52.02
In the US stock market, the NASDAQ is leading the charge to the downside. It is currently down -100 points or -1.11% and 9116.
  • Dow -308 points or -1.11% at 27653
  • S&P index -34.5 points or -1.07% at 3191
  • Nasdaq down -100 points or -1.11% at 9116

CFTC commitments of traders: EUR shorts increase.

  
Analysis, Forex
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Weekly FX futures positioning data from the CFTC

  • EUR short 59K vs 47K short last week. Shorts increased by 12K
  • GBP long 18K vs 25K long last week. Longs decreased by 7K
  • JPY short 36K vs 45K short last week. Shorts increased by 9k
  • CHF loan 3.5K vs 1.5 long last week. Longs increased by 2K
  • AUD short 27k vs 19K short last week. Shorts increased by 8K
  • NZD long 2K vs 1.8K longlast week. Longs increased by 0.2K
  • CAD long 35k vs 38K long last week. Longs decreased by 3K

Highlights:

  • EUR shorts had the biggest change in week (increase of 12K to the short side).
  • The EUR short 59K is the largest speculative position
  • JPY shorts trimmed. I have to think that there might be more liquidation over the last few days on the back of the coronavirus.
Below is the history of the EUR. It has been negative since the 1st week of October 2018.
Weekly FX futures positioning data from the CFTC_

European shares rebound to end the week

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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German Dax up 1.3%.  France’s CAC, up 0.8%.  UK’s FTSE 100, +1.1%

The major European indices are ending the day higher.  For the week all but the German Dax fell.
A look at the provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, +1.3%
  • France’s CAC, +0.8%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +1.1%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +0.4%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.0%

For the week, all but the German Dax are ending lower.  Provisional changes are showing

  • German DAX +0.32%
  • France’s CAC -1.34%
  • UK’s FTSE 100 -1.1%
  • Spain’s Ibex -1.3%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.82%
In other markets as the European/London traders look to exit:
  • Spot gold is trading up $9.80 or 0.64% at $1572.90
  • WTI crude oil futures are trading down $1.43 or -2.57% at $54.16
US stocks have tilted back to the downside as a US Sen. tells of the 3rd case of the coronavirus in the US.  Weekend fear is being elevated:
  • S&P index -15.78 points or -0.46% at 3309.78
  • NASDAQ index -24.97 points or -0.26% at 9377.62
  • Dow -87 points or -0.29% at 29073.83

European shares end the day lower

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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German DAX, -0.66%. UK’s FTSE, -0.68%

the major European stock indices are ending the day with declines. The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, -0.66%
  • France’s CAC, -0.79%
  • UK’s FTSE, -0.68%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.74%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -1.06%
  • Portugal’s PSI 20, -0.62%
In the European debt market, yields moved sharply higher with the UK 10 year benchmark note leading the way with a rise of 11 basis points.
German DAX, -0.66%. UK's FTSE, -0.68%_In other markets as European traders exit:
  • Spot gold is higher by $5.60 or 0.37% at $1516.18. It is trading at the highs for the day with the low down at $1510.86
  • WTI crude oil futures are down $0.17 at $61.54, after failing to hold above the $62 level. The high price for the day reach $62.34
The US stocks are trading lower on the day led by declines in the NASDAQ index
  • S&P index -14 points or -0.44% at 3226
  • NASDAQ -51.18 points or -0.57% at 8955.82
  • Dow -129 points or -0.45% at 28514

US yields are also higher with the yield curve steepening. The 2 – 10 year spread has widened out to 34.28 basis points from 29.4 basis points on Friday.

US yields are higher

CFTC Commitments of Traders report: GBP shorts trimmed but not as much as you might think

  
Analysis, Forex
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Forex futures positioning data for the week ended Tuesday, December 10:

Forex futures positioning data for the week ended Tuesday, December 10:

  • EUR short 68K vs 69K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • GBP short 23K vs 30K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 7K
  • JPY short 44K vs 48K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4k
  • CHF short 21K vs 22K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • AUD short 37k vs 36K short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
  • NZD short 25K vs 27K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 2K
  • CAD long 21k vs 21K long last week.  No change
The big shifts recently have been paring GBP and NZD shorts. Those trends both continued this week but at a slower pace than you might have expected given the rallies in both. Next week’s data will capture the UK election and that should be instructive.

CFTC Commitments of Traders: Pound shorts haven’t been squeezed…yet

  
Analysis, Forex
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Forex futures positioning data from the CFTC for the week ending October 15, 2019:

Forex futures positioning data from the CFTC for the week ending October 15, 2019:
  • EUR short 75K vs 75K short last week. Unchanged
  • GBP short 73K vs 73K short last week. Unchanged
  • JPY short 7K vs 11K long last week. Longs switch to shorts in an 18K drop
  • CHF short 13k vs 11k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • AUD short 48k vs 46k short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
  • NZD short 40K vs 38K short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
  • CAD long 13K vs 5K long last week.  Longs trimmed by 1K
  • Prior week

The big moves in sterling came last week and I’m surprised there wasn’t any covering through Tuesday. That’s good news if you’re long GBP because it leaves lots of juice to squeeze.

CFTC commitments of traders: The largest position remains GBP shorts

  
Analysis, Forex
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Forex futures positioning data for the week ending September 24, 2019 from the CFTC  should

  • EUR short 66K vs 61K short last week. Shorts increased by 5K
  • GBP short 77K vs 81K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K
  • JPY long 14K vs 13K long last week. Longs trimmed by 1kK
  • CHF short 12k vs 11k short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
  • AUD short 52k vs 47k short last week. Shorts increased by 5K
  • NZD short 42K vs 45K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 3K
  • CAD long 6K vs 5K long last week.  Longs increased by 1K
  • prior week

Modest changes in the major currencies for the current week. Although speculators trimmed short positions in the pound, it remains the largest specular position. The EUR shorts increased by 5K. It is the 2nd largest short position.

The specular position in the JPY remains on the long side. The CAD is also a long position for traders.
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