Archives of “futures contract” tag

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Trading Rules & A Trading Plan

  
  Education
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There is a saying if you do not know where you are going…how will you get anywhere. There is some what of an analogy with trading and having rules and a trading plan. When you follow trading rules which match your personality along with your trading plan, you are on a path to just let the probabilities occur. Every facet of your trading needs to be thought out. It is not easy developing a trading plan with rules…however once you have it in place & accept the fact that any trade is 50/50 & does not have to work…your edge over time could possibly provide you a rising equity curve.

When you have trading rules & you follow it……you reduce the anxiety and stress levels. You know you need to follow your plan because the only certainty when trading is complete uncertainty. If you think you know where any market is going and do not put on a protective stop…Good luck and would bet you will encounter a huge shock one day.

Part of your trading rules are what to buy or sell

How much to buy or sell

When to get out with a profit or loss… (more…)

Traders Should Have These 5 Qualities

  
  Education
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1) Capacity for Prudent Risk-Taking – Successful young traders are neither impulsive nor risk-averse. They are not afraid to go after markets aggressively when they perceive opportunity;
2) Capacity for Rule Governance – Successful young traders have the self-control needed to follow rules in the heat of battle, including rules of position sizing and risk management;
3) Capacity for Sustained Effort – Successful young traders can be identified by the productive time they spend on trading–research, preparation, work on themselves–outside of market hours;
4) Capacity for Emotional Resilience – All young traders will lose money early in their development and experience multiple frustrations. The successful ones will not be quick to lose self-confidence and motivation in the face of loss and frustration;
5) Capacity for Sound Reasoning – Successful young traders exhibit an ability to make sense of markets by synthesizing data and generating market and trading views. They display patience in collecting information and do not jump to conclusions based on superficial reasoning or limited data.

Trading Plan :10 Points

  
  Education
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The Trading Plan comes first and should account for the following parameters:

1.  Entering a trade. Quantified approved entries.

2.  Exiting a trade. Predetermined Exit point BEFORE you enter a trade.

3.  Stop Placement. How will you know you were wrong about a trade? A stop loss, trailing stop, chart signal, volatility stop, time stop, or target price.

4.  Money Management. How much capital will you risk on any one trade? This is the key to position sizing.

5. Position Sizing. How much capital will you put on any one trade? Do you have rules that tell you to trade bigger or smaller based on the odds?

6.  What to Trade. What qualifies stocks to be on your watch list?

7.  Trading Time Frames. Are you going to day trade or position trade and hold for a week or more? or will you be a short term or long term trend follower?

8.  Back Testing. You need back testing either with a computer, by reviewing charts, or others research to show that your system is a winner.

9.  Performance Review. You must keep a detailed log of your trades and watch your performance to understand the wins and losses and their causes.

10.  Risk vs. Reward. Each trade must begin with the potential of winning more money than you are risking.

This is a very basic outline, I suggest expanding this to include 30 rules minimum; 10 each covering the areas of risk management, psychology, and method. If you can write this, believe it, and follow it, you will win in trading the only question that remains is when?

6 Universal principles of successful traders

  
  Education
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1). Preparation

Author Brent Penfold is in the minority believing risk management is the #1 priority in trading. Brent believes that once you get your trading system and position size in place you must use the amount you will risk on each trade to determine your risk of ruin. The book shows exactly how to figure this out using Excel. His point is that if your risk of ruin is not zero then you will eventually blow out your account. Risking 1% to 2% of your capital in any one trade usually gives you a zero percent risk of ruin but it also depends on your systems win/loss ratio. But the point is to test any system with 30 trades first then determine your risk of ruin.

2). Enlightenment

Your most important goal is to lower your risk ruin to zero. In trading, the trader with the best ability to cut losses short wins. Simple trading strategies work the best based on traditional support and resistance while trading with the trend on either retracements of break outs. The 10% of winners in the market win by treading where others fear, buying on break outs when they first occur and going short when a new low is made, or buying into the abyss when a security finds support or resistance and reverses at the end of a monster trend.

3). Developing a trading style (more…)

The Three pillars of trading

  
  Education
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Money Management: You must make your trades as fixed as possible. Trade with the same risk, capital, units, percentage, and in the same type markets to manage risk most effectively.

Methodology: Choose a method that works for you and your personality. (Dow Theory, technical indicators, patterns, price and volume, etc) Once you have a methodology to your trading, test it in the real world, in real time, either with micro trades or paper trade. You need a sample size to judge its efficacy.

Trader Psychology: Manage your hope, greed, fear, and pain to stay in the game.

5 Principles of Trading Psychology

  
  Education
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Trading is a performance activity
Like the playing of a concert instrument or the playing of a sport, trading entails the application of knowledge and skills to real time performances and this is the core idea behind my most recent book.  Success at trading, as with other performances, depends upon a developmental process in which intensive, structured practice and experience over an extended time yield competence and expertise. Many trading problems are attributable to attempts to succeed at trading prior to undergoing this learning process. My research suggests that professional traders account for well over three-quarters of all share and futures contract volume. It is impossible to sustain success against these professionals without honing one’s performance–and by making sure that you don’t lose your capital in the learning process. Confidence in one’s trading comes from the mastery conferred by one’s learning and development, not from psychological exercises or insights.

2: Success in trading is a function of talents and skills
Trading, in this sense, is no different from chess, Olympic events, or acting. Inborn abilities (talents) and developed competencies (skills) determine one’s level of success. From rock bands to ballet dancers and golfers, only a small percentage of participants in any performance activity are good enough to sustain a living from their performances. The key to success is finding a seamless fit between one’s talents/skills and the specific opportunities available in a performance field. For traders, this means finding a superior fit between your abilities and the specific markets and strategies you will be trading. Many performance problems are the result of a suboptimal fit between what the trader is good at and how the trader is trading. (more…)

5 Ways -Traders are Right ,But …. Still Lose Money.

  
  Education
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  1. You enter your trade correctly and it goes in your favor, BUT… you do not have the right exit strategy to capture your profits and they evaporate due to not having a trailing stop or waiting to long to exit to bank those profits. Sometimes winners even turn into big losers win not managed correctly. You have to have a plan to take profits while they are there.
  2. You enter the right trade BUT… at the wrong time, you either exit not allowing your trade enough time to work or you are stopped out but do not have a plan to get yourself back in the trade with the right set up. The right trade with the wrong timing pays nothing.
  3. You have the right entry and it goes in your favor BUT.. you pick the wrong stock option to express your trade. If you pick an option with a high implied volatility your trade has to overcome that vega priced into the option, after an expected earnings event that vega value will be priced out and you need the move in intrinsic value to make up that difference. With a far out in time stock option you need the price to move enough in the underlying in the time period of the option to make up the theta cost of time embedded in the option. It is crucial to understand the option pricing model to make the right option trades to express your time period and expected move. Sometimes options also do not have the liquidity in some stocks,or far out time frames, or far out of the money strikes. Getting in and out of an illiquid  option trade can be very expensive.
  4. You enter correctly BUT… get stopped out too soon because your position size is just too big and either you stop out from a monetary loss above your risk threshold or your fear of big losses stops you out. Trade the right size for your risk tolerance and give yourself some wiggle room.
  5. Your trade can be perfectly timed and executed and it can immediately go in your favor BUT… an unexpected news headline about your company, interest rates, commodity, or macro can still cause you to lose. Nothing you can do about this one but move on the next trade. The other four can be great lessons in how to be a winner the next time around.

Every mistake a trader can make

  
  Education
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MISTAKES-TRADERSSymptoms:

  1. Trading with “scared” money

  2. Trading from a state of desperation and fear
  3. Ruled by emotions and unable to take a loss
  4. Changing her trading plan often
  5. Trying to be perfect
  6. Looking for medication to deal with emotional issues over trading
  7. Adopting a trading technique (scalping one futures contract) that is beyond her level of trading competence
  8. Attached to the outcome of each trade
  9. Not committed to the process of learning to trade—using trading as a temporary “stop-gap” source of income until something else becomes available.

  10. Acting out personal dramas in the financial markets

25 Points -Before the Trade

  
  Education
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1. Do you know the name and numbers of all your counterparts, especially if your equipment breaks down?

2. When does your market close, especially on holidays?

3. Do you have all the equipment you’ll need to make the trade, including pens, computers, notebooks, order slips, in the normal course and in the event of a breakdown?

4. Did you write down your trade and check it to see for example that you didn’t enter 400 contracts instead of the four that you meant to trade?

5. Why did you get into the trade?

6. Did you do a workout?

7. Was it statistically significant taking into account multiple comparisons and lookbacks?

8. Is there a prospective relation between statistical significance and predictivity?

9. Did you consider everchanging cycles?

10. And if you deigned to do a workout the way all turf handicappers do, did you take into account the within-day variability of prices, especially how this might affect your margin and being stopped out by your broker? (more…)

7 Warning Signs For Trader

  
  Education
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There are warning signs that a trader is going down the road road in a trade or in their trading in general. Traders have to go with the flow of the market, manage risk, and keep their mind open to actual price action. Departing from these principles are dangerous and could result in huge draw downs in capital and even blowing up their accounts. Trading through the filters of fear, greed, or ego are very dangerous.

  1. You stop trading your plan and start “shooting from the hip” you are losing or winning so you believe that you are above your own rules, you start trading your opinions instead of your plan.
  2. You are about to take a trade you are 100% sure of, you have no doubt that it will work out. Trades that feel good to do and feel like can’t lose trades rarely win because everyone is already positioned in those trades.
  3. When you ignore your first stop and start deciding that you should give your trade “more room”, when you allow a loss to grow and rationalize why you should hold it instead of following your plan and stopping out you are in trouble.
  4. Averaging down in a position that is going against you is never a good idea, fighting trends are very dangerous amplifying your losses by increasing your position size can be fatal to your account.
  5. Fighting against the prevailing market trend over an over again can chop your account to pieces. (more…)
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