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CFTC Commitments of Traders: Big swings in AUD and EUR

  
Analysis, Forex
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Forex futures positioning data for the week ending June 16, 2020:

  • EUR long 117K vs 96K long last week. Longs increased by 21K.
  • GBP short 16K vs 24K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 8K.
  • JPY long 22K vs 17K long last week. Longs increased by 5K.
  • CHF long 2K vs 2K long last week. No change
  • AUD short 7k vs 37K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 30K
  • NZD short 9K vs 11K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 2K
  • CAD short 25k vs 26K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • Prior week
Aussie shorts really threw in the towel but EUR longs continue to pile in. That’s a fresh two-year high and a massive one-week move.
Forex futures positioning data for the week ending June 16, 2020:

CFTC commitments of traders: EUR longs trimmed for the 2nd week in a row.

  
Analysis, Forex
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Forex futures positioning data for the week ending May 5, 2020.

  • EUR long 76K vs 80K long last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K
  • GBP short 12K vs 7K short last week. Shorts increased by 5K
  • JPY long 27K vs 32K long last week. Longs trimmed by 5K
  • CHF long 8K vs 6K long last week. Longs increased by 2K
  • AUD short 33k vs 38K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 5K
  • NZD short 15K  vs 14K short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
  • CAD short 32k vs 29K short last week. Shorts increased by 3K

Highlights:

  • the largest position change was 5K in the GBP, JPY and AUD. The GBP positions were increased by 5K, while the JPY and AUD positions were trimmed by 5K
  • The EUR long remains the largest position, but is lower for the 2nd week in a row. The net long over the last 2 weeks has seen the 87K to 76K this week
  • The AUD and CAD are the next largest positions at 33K and 32K respectively. However, traders are short AUD,and long CAD.
Below is a chart of the deposition in the EUR.  Although lower from the recent peak, it is still near high levels for the year, and high levels going back to June 2018.
Forex futures positioning data for the week ending May 5, 2020.

CFTC commitments of traders: EURUSD shorts are trimmed but still against the price trend this week

  
Analysis, Forex
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Forex futures positioning data for the week ending March 3, 2020

  • EUR short 87K vs 114K short last week. Shorts decreased by 27K
  • GBP long 35K vs 30K long last week. Longs increased by 5K
  • JPY short 42K vs 56K short last week. Shorts decreased by 14k
  • CHF short 3K vs 1K long last week. Shorts increased by 4K
  • AUD short 52k vs 44K short last week. Shorts increased by 8K
  • NZD short 17K vs 15K short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
  • CAD long 11k vs 15K long last week. Longs increased by 4K

Highlights:

  • The EUR remains the largest speculative position and it is still short, but there was a relatively large liquidation of 27K.  The EURUSD bottomed on February 20. The price has been up 9 of the last 11 trading days.  The squeeze higher seems to have led to some liquidation of the short positions. Traders are still offsides given the recent sharp move back higher.
  • The JPY has been getting stronger as stocks and rates tumbled.  The USDJPY is trading at the lowest level since August 27 (higher JPY).  Speculative positions remain short JPY (long USD), and losing money.  Like the EUR, the position has been trimmed but traders remain short the JPY (long the USD) and against the price trend this week.
  • The AUD has moved higher off the low from last Friday. Speculative positions in the AUD saw an increase of 8K in the net short position. The short is losing against the rising value of the AUD this week.
  • The speculative position in the GBP (Long 35K) is benefiting this week as the GBPUSD has marched higher last Friday’s low.

Forex futures positioning data for the week ending March 3, 2020

CFTC Commitments of Traders report: GBP shorts trimmed but not as much as you might think

  
Analysis, Forex
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Forex futures positioning data for the week ended Tuesday, December 10:

Forex futures positioning data for the week ended Tuesday, December 10:

  • EUR short 68K vs 69K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • GBP short 23K vs 30K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 7K
  • JPY short 44K vs 48K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4k
  • CHF short 21K vs 22K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • AUD short 37k vs 36K short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
  • NZD short 25K vs 27K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 2K
  • CAD long 21k vs 21K long last week.  No change
The big shifts recently have been paring GBP and NZD shorts. Those trends both continued this week but at a slower pace than you might have expected given the rallies in both. Next week’s data will capture the UK election and that should be instructive.

CFTC Commitments of Traders: Pound shorts haven’t been squeezed…yet

  
Analysis, Forex
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Forex futures positioning data from the CFTC for the week ending October 15, 2019:

Forex futures positioning data from the CFTC for the week ending October 15, 2019:
  • EUR short 75K vs 75K short last week. Unchanged
  • GBP short 73K vs 73K short last week. Unchanged
  • JPY short 7K vs 11K long last week. Longs switch to shorts in an 18K drop
  • CHF short 13k vs 11k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • AUD short 48k vs 46k short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
  • NZD short 40K vs 38K short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
  • CAD long 13K vs 5K long last week.  Longs trimmed by 1K
  • Prior week

The big moves in sterling came last week and I’m surprised there wasn’t any covering through Tuesday. That’s good news if you’re long GBP because it leaves lots of juice to squeeze.

CFTC commitments of traders: The largest position remains GBP shorts

  
Analysis, Forex
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Forex futures positioning data for the week ending September 24, 2019 from the CFTC  should

  • EUR short 66K vs 61K short last week. Shorts increased by 5K
  • GBP short 77K vs 81K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K
  • JPY long 14K vs 13K long last week. Longs trimmed by 1kK
  • CHF short 12k vs 11k short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
  • AUD short 52k vs 47k short last week. Shorts increased by 5K
  • NZD short 42K vs 45K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 3K
  • CAD long 6K vs 5K long last week.  Longs increased by 1K
  • prior week

Modest changes in the major currencies for the current week. Although speculators trimmed short positions in the pound, it remains the largest specular position. The EUR shorts increased by 5K. It is the 2nd largest short position.

The specular position in the JPY remains on the long side. The CAD is also a long position for traders.

CFTC Commitments of Traders: Canadian dollar buyers bail

  
Analysis, Forex
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Forex futures positioning data for the week ending September 24, 2019 from the CFTC:

Forex futures positioning data for the week ending September 24, 2019 from the CFTC:
  • EUR short 61K vs 69K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 8K
  • GBP short 81K vs 86K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 5K
  • JPY long 13K vs 24K long last week. Longs trimmed by 11K
  • CHF short 11k vs 5k short last week. Shorts increased by 6K
  • AUD short 47k vs 54k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 7K
  • NZD short 36K vs 30K short last week. Shorts increased by 6K
  • CAD long 5K vs 20K long last week.  Longs trimmed by 15K

There were some substantial moves across the board in this week’s data. There was no overarching theme in the US dollar. The loonie has stubbornly held onto longs but I suspect the jump in oil prices and lack of a corresponding climb in the loonie may have sent some specs to the sidelines — that data certainty hasn’t eroded.

CFTC Commitment of Traders: Positions are marginally changed

  
Analysis, Forex
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Forex futures positioning data among noncommercial traders for the week ending July 23, 2019

  • EUR short 39K vs 31K short last week. Shorts increased by 8K
  • GBP short 79K vs 76K short last week. Shorts increased by 3K
  • JPY short 9K vs 11K short last week. Short trimmed by 2K
  • CHF short 13k vs 12k short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
  • AUD short 48 k vs 53k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 5K
  • NZD short 12K vs 17K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 5K
  • CAD long 31K vs 21K long last week.  Longs increased by 10K
  • Prior week

Highlights:

  • GBP shorts remain as the largest position. The GBPUSD moved to new 27 month lows today rewarding those traders.
  • AUD shorts are the 2nd largest position and the AUD moved to new month lows today retracing the run higher from the June 10 low
  • The EUR shorts increased by 8K. The EURUSD moved modestly lower this week. The EUR short has been cut from over -100K short to 31K (the fall in short positions seems to have slowed over the last month.
  • Speculators remain long the CAD. It is the only major foreign-currency long position versus the US dollar

Forex futures positioning data among noncommercial traders for the week ending July 23, 2019

CFTC Commitments of Traders: Loonie shorts rush to the exits

  
Analysis, Forex
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Forex futures positioning data among non-commercial traders for the week ending June 25, 2019:

  • EUR short 56K vs 52K short last week. Shorts increased by 4K
  • GBP short 59K vs 53K short last week. Shorts increased by 6K
  • JPY short 10K vs 17K short last week. Short trimmed by 7K
  • CHF short 16k vs 15k short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
  • AUD short 66k vs 65k short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
  • NZD short 24K vs 24K short last week. Shorts unchanged
  • CAD short 15K vs 38K short last week.  Shorts decreased by 23K
That’s the second week in a row of GBP selling as the market sours on whatever might come from the Conservative change in leadership.
There was a big flight out of euro shorts a week ago but some waded back in this week. In the yen, however, they continued to get out of shorts, even with USD/JPY rebounding (although that came later in the week).
The big move was in the Canadian dollar where all the good news on Canadian data finally sank in and the shorts got out. That shift put the net at the narrowest since late December. I expect we will see more of the same when next week’s numbers are released.

Forex futures positioning data among non-commercial traders for the week ending June 25, 2019:

5 Characteristics of less Successful Traders

  
  Education
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1) The less successful traders are anticipating market movement and trading accordingly. The highly successful traders are identifying asset class mispricings and trading off those.

2) The less successful traders are trading particular instruments and pretty much stick to those. The highly successful traders recognize that any combination of trading instruments can be considered an asset class and appropriately priced (and gauged for mispricing).

3) The less successful traders think of their market as *the* market. The highly successful traders focus on interrelationships among markets that cut across nationalities and asset classes.
4) The highly successful traders place just as much emphasis on understanding markets as predicting them. The less successful traders don’t ask “why” questions.

5) The less successful traders are convinced they have proprietary information of value that they must not disclose to anyone. The highly successful traders use their proprietary information to selectively share with other highly successful participants, thereby gaining a large informational edge.

If I had to use one phrase to capture the essence of the highly successful traders, it would be analytical creativity. These traders are creative in their thinking about markets and rigorous in their pursuit of this creativity.

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