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European shares extend higher on global growth hopes

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Euro Stoxx 600 it’s 4 year high. 5th straight day of gains

The European major stock indices are closed and extending higher on global growth hopes.
The Euro Stoxx 600 index is trading at 4-year highs and is up for the 5th straight day of gains.
The provisional closes for other indices are showing:
  • German DAX, +0.8%. The close is the highest level since February 2018
  • France’s CAC, +0.3%
  • UKs FTSE is ending the session flat
  • Spain’s Ibex, +0.4%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.6%

Yields are also higher as traders in global debt markets are also hoping global economies will get a boost on more cooperative US China relations.

Euro Stoxx 600 it's 4 year high. 5th straight day of gains_

No records today. Major indices close lower

  
Analysis, US Market
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Nasdaq leads the month charge forward

The major US stock indices are ending the day with declines but it could have been worse.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P fell -9.21 points oro -0.30% at 3037.56. Yesterday was a record close. So the decline today is makes it easy. No record today.  The high price reached 3046.90 . The low was down at 3023.19.
  • The Nasdaq fell -11.617 points or -0.14% at 8292.35. The high reached 8321.80. The low extended to 8248.80
  • The Dow is closing down -140.46 points or -0.52% at 27046.23. The high reached 27188.37. The low extended down to 26918.29
The % changes of the major stock indices today
Today is also month end (Happy Halloween). The major indices are ending the month higher.
  • Dow, up 0.48%
  • S&P up 2.04%
  • Nasdaq up 3.66%.

For the year, the major indices are still showing strong gains after the down year in 2018.

  • Dow, +15.94%
  • S&P, +21.17%
  • Nasdaq, +24.97%.

US stocks close the session higher. Record close for the S&P

  
Analysis, US Market
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New record close for the S&P

The US stocks are closing the session higher after the FOMC cut rates by 25 basis points and Fed chair Powell said that rates would not go higher unless inflation goes higher.
  • The S&P index rose 9.88 points or 0.33% at 3046.77
  • The Nasdaq rose 27.125 points or 0.33% at 8303.97
  • The Dow rose 115.27 points or 0.43% at 27186.69.
In after hours, Facebook beat on the revenues and earnings-per-share
  • EPS $2.12 versus $1.91 expected
  • Revenues $17.65 billion versus an estimate $17.35 billion

Facebook shares are up 2.3% in volatile trading after the close.

Here is what’s on the economic calendar in Asia today – almost bare

  
  Analysis
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2350GMT will bring data on weekly flows of securities (stocks/bonds bought/sold) from Japan.

Upon release these tend to have a negligible impact on forex (unless there is some reason for the market to be focused on them at the time).
Apart from some info due from South Korea and Singapore that’s about it.

US stocks end the session lower and near session lows

  
Analysis, US Market
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S&P index back below the 3000 level. NASDAQ loses -0.72%

The major stock indices slid in the afternoon trading after being higher earlier in the day. The major indices are ending the session in the red, led by the NASDAQ composite index which fell -0.72%
The closes are showing:
  • the S&P index -10.65 points or -0.35% at 2996.07. The high reached 3014.57, while the low extended to 2995.04
  • the NASDAQ composite index fell 58.69 points or -0.72% at 8104.29. The high extended up 28194.62 while the low reached 8101.98
  • The Dow industrial average is closing down -39.27 points or -0.15% at 26788.32.  The high reached 26946.64.  The low extended to 26782.61

After today’s close Chipotle, snap, Texas Instruments, and Whirlpool will be releasing their earnings.

Tomorrow will be 1 of the bigger earnings day’s so far with Microsoft, Boeing, Caterpillar and others expected to release:

Wednesday, October 23

  • Boeing, BA
  • Blackstone Group, BX
  • General Dynamics, GD
  • Owens Corning, OC
  • Ford, F
  • Caterpillar, CAT
  • Celgene, CELG
  • Microsoft, MSFT
  • eBay, EBAY
  • PayPal holdings, PYPL
  • Tesla, TSLA

CFTC Commitments of Traders: Pound shorts haven’t been squeezed…yet

  
Analysis, Forex
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Forex futures positioning data from the CFTC for the week ending October 15, 2019:

Forex futures positioning data from the CFTC for the week ending October 15, 2019:
  • EUR short 75K vs 75K short last week. Unchanged
  • GBP short 73K vs 73K short last week. Unchanged
  • JPY short 7K vs 11K long last week. Longs switch to shorts in an 18K drop
  • CHF short 13k vs 11k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • AUD short 48k vs 46k short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
  • NZD short 40K vs 38K short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
  • CAD long 13K vs 5K long last week.  Longs trimmed by 1K
  • Prior week

The big moves in sterling came last week and I’m surprised there wasn’t any covering through Tuesday. That’s good news if you’re long GBP because it leaves lots of juice to squeeze.

US SEC charges 18 traders in a manipulation scheme … profits over $31 million

  
  Analysis
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The US Securities and Exchange Commission has obtained an asset freeze against the 18 traders

  • scheme to manipulate more than 3,000 U.S.-listed securities
  • for over $31 million in illegal profits
The SEC alleges that the traders, who are primarily based in China, manipulated the prices of thousands of thinly traded securities by creating the false appearance of trading interest and activity in those stocks, thereby enabling them to reap illicit profits by artificially boosting or depressing stock prices. 
For example, according to the SEC’s complaint, the traders used multiple accounts to place several small sell orders to drive down a stock’s price before using a different set of accounts to buy larger amounts of the stock at the artificially low prices. After accumulating their position, the traders then flipped the script and placed several small buy orders to push up prices so they could then sell their stock at artificially high prices.

How Isaac Newton went flat broke chasing a stock bubble

  
Analysis, Education
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For practitioners of Schadenfreude, seeing high-profile investors losing their shirts is always amusing.

But for the true connoisseur, the finest expression of the art comes when a high-profile investor identifies a bubble, perhaps even makes money out of it, exits in time – and then gets sucked back in only to lose everything in the resultant bust.

An early example is the case of Sir Isaac Newton and the South Sea Company, which was established in the early 18th Century and granted a monopoly on trade in the South Seas in exchange for assuming England’s war debt.

Investors warmed to the appeal of this monopoly and the company’s shares began their rise.

Britain’s most celebrated scientist was not immune to the monetary charms of the South Sea Company, and in early 1720 he profited handsomely from his stake. Having cashed in his chips, he then watched with some perturbation as stock in the company continued to rise.

In the words of Lord Overstone, no warning on earth can save people determined to grow suddenly rich.

Newton went on to repurchase a good deal more South Sea Company shares at more than three times the price of his original stake, and then proceeded to lose £20,000 (which, in 1720, amounted to almost all his life savings).

This prompted him to add, allegedly, that “I can calculate the movement of stars, but not the madness of men.”

South Sea Company (more…)

Order flow levels across major pairs.

  
Analysis, Forex
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Orders in the market seen across major pairs

  • Sell orders on NZDUSD on 0.6480/90 and 0.6360/70
  • Sell orders on AUDUSD at 0.6800/10 and 0.6910/20
  • Sell orders on EURJPY at 120.40/50, 118.70/80

and buy orders at 116.20/10

  • Sell orders on USDJPY at 108.70/80, 108.30/40

and buy orders at  106.00/90 and 105.00/90

Sell orders on GBPUSD at 1.2680/90 and 1.2530/40

and buy orders at 1.2000/90

  • Sell orders  on EURUSD at 1.1010/20

US stocks end near the lows but give up gains

  
Analysis, US Market
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Early declines still holding the lows

The US stocks are ending the day near, but above) the day’s lows (from earlier in the day) but they gave up gains in the processs in what was an up and down day.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P index fell -13.22 points or -0.45% at 2938.79. The high reached 2959.75. The low extended to 2935.68
  • The NASDAQ index fell -26.181 points or -0.33% at 7956.29. The high reached 8013.316. The low extended to 7942.08
  • The down industrial average fell -95.70 points or -0.36% at 26478. The high reached 26655.84. The low extended to 26424.54

The NASDAQ index closed below its 100 day moving average at 7967.39. The index close back above that MA on Friday. Failure to keep the momentum to the upside going is a disappointment for the bulls.

The S&P index remains above its 100 day moving average at 2928.07, but is closing below its 50 day moving average at 2940.64
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