Archives of “financial markets” tag

rss

Eurozone December final manufacturing PMI 46.3 vs 45.9 prelim

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #

Latest data released by Markit – 2 January 2020

The preliminary release can be found here. The mildly higher revision was predicated by the French and German readings earlier but it is still weaker than the November print.

All this does is just reaffirm more sluggish factory conditions in the euro area economy towards the end of last year and that any signs of a recovery still needs more consistency despite a better outlook to US-China trade and Brexit developments.

Markit notes that:

“Eurozone manufacturers reported a dire end to 2019, with output falling at a rate not exceeded since 2012. The survey is indicative of production falling by 1.5% in the fourth quarter, acting as a severe drag on the wider economy.

Although firms grew somewhat more optimistic about the year ahead, a return to growth remains a long way off given that new order inflows continued to fall at one of the fastest rates seen over the past seven years. Firms sought to reduce inventory levels and cut headcounts as a result, focusing on slashing capacity and lowering costs. Such cost cutting was again also evident in further steep falls in demand for machinery, equipment and production-line inputs.”

It’s PMI day in Europe to kick start the new year

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #

But markets are still plagued by poor liquidity conditions for the most part

2020

Happy New Year, everyone! Hope that all of you had a great celebration or time off and that you’re refreshed for another new trading year ahead.
Markets are still largely affected by thin conditions with liquidity still rather lacking and I would expect things to stay that way until tomorrow or next week at least.
In the major currencies space, things are a little mixed with the pound finding itself on the back foot while the aussie and franc are also mildly weaker on the day so far.
Looking ahead, we’ll have manufacturing PMI releases in the European morning but these will be final readings for December, so they won’t really matter all too much.
0815 GMT – Spain December manufacturing PMI
0845 GMT – Italy December manufacturing PMI
0850 GMT – France December final manufacturing PMI
0855 GMT – Germany December final manufacturing PMI
0900 GMT – Eurozone December final manufacturing PMI

(more…)

S&P, Nasdaq have best year since 2013

  
Analysis, Global Indices, US Market
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Nasdaq up over 35% on year

The US stock market is closed for the year, and oh what a year it was.
The S&P index and the NASDAQ index both had their best years since 2013. The NASDAQ index led the way for the year with a gain of 35.23%. The S&P index rose by 28.87%. The Dow industrial average was limited with a 22.33% gain. Boeing weighed on that index in 2019.
For the day, the major indices are closing near highs:
  • S&P index rose 9.41 points or 0.29% to 3230.70
  • NASDAQ index rose 26.611 points or 0.30% to 8972.60
  • Dow rose 76.1 points or 0.27% to 28538.24
Globally for the year, the Nasdaq index was the largest gainer (+35.23%) followed by the S&P index (+28.88%) and Italy’s FTSE MIB (up 28.28%).  The Shanghai composite index had a impressive 22.1% return.  France’s Cac and Germany’s DAX rose 26.37% and 25.48% respectively.
The worst performing index was the Portuguese PSI20 at 10.20% and Spain’s Ibex at 11.82%.  The UK FTSE, with all the upheaval and uncertainty from Brexit and the political upheaval, had a limited (relatively) gain of 12.10%.
The YTD returns were impressive in 2019

European shares end the day lower

  
Analysis, Global Indices
#  #  #  #  #  #  #

German DAX, -0.66%. UK’s FTSE, -0.68%

the major European stock indices are ending the day with declines. The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, -0.66%
  • France’s CAC, -0.79%
  • UK’s FTSE, -0.68%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.74%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -1.06%
  • Portugal’s PSI 20, -0.62%
In the European debt market, yields moved sharply higher with the UK 10 year benchmark note leading the way with a rise of 11 basis points.
German DAX, -0.66%. UK's FTSE, -0.68%_In other markets as European traders exit:
  • Spot gold is higher by $5.60 or 0.37% at $1516.18. It is trading at the highs for the day with the low down at $1510.86
  • WTI crude oil futures are down $0.17 at $61.54, after failing to hold above the $62 level. The high price for the day reach $62.34
The US stocks are trading lower on the day led by declines in the NASDAQ index
  • S&P index -14 points or -0.44% at 3226
  • NASDAQ -51.18 points or -0.57% at 8955.82
  • Dow -129 points or -0.45% at 28514

US yields are also higher with the yield curve steepening. The 2 – 10 year spread has widened out to 34.28 basis points from 29.4 basis points on Friday.

US yields are higher

Asian markets return today, but holiday mode will persist – here is what’s on the calendar

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #

Coming up today on what will be a lower than usual liquidity session:

2330 GMT Tokyo inflation data for December – Tokyo area CPI (national level CPI for the month follows in three weeks). The y/y rate has received a wee boost from the October 1 sales tax hike. But not much.

  • Tokyo CPI y/y, expected 0.9%, prior was 0.8%
  • Tokyo CPI y/y excluding Fresh Food, expected 0.6%, prior was 0.6%
  • Tokyo CPI excluding Food, Energy y/y, expected 0.7%, prior was 0.7%

Also at 2330 GMT Japan Jobless (Unemployment) rate for November

  • expected 2.4 %, prior 2.4%

and Job to applicant ratio for November

  • expected 1.57, prior 1.57

2350 GMT Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting ‘Summary of Opinions’ of the December meeting

  • this precedes the minutes of that meeting by many, many weeks.

2350 GMT Japan Retail sales for November

expected 5.0% m/m, prior -14.2% (the huge drop was helped along by that sales tax hike I mentioned above)

  • expected -1.7% y/y, prior -7.0%

2350 GMT Japan Industrial Production for November (preliminary)

  • expected -1.0% m/m, prior -4.5%
  • expected -8.1% y/y, prior -7.7% (trade wars have weighed on exports which in turn have impacted IP)

0130 GMT China Industrial Profits for November % y/y

  • prior -9.9% (trade war and negative PPI big factors in this)

CFTC Commitments of Traders report: GBP shorts trimmed but not as much as you might think

  
Analysis, Forex
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Forex futures positioning data for the week ended Tuesday, December 10:

Forex futures positioning data for the week ended Tuesday, December 10:

  • EUR short 68K vs 69K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • GBP short 23K vs 30K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 7K
  • JPY short 44K vs 48K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4k
  • CHF short 21K vs 22K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • AUD short 37k vs 36K short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
  • NZD short 25K vs 27K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 2K
  • CAD long 21k vs 21K long last week.  No change
The big shifts recently have been paring GBP and NZD shorts. Those trends both continued this week but at a slower pace than you might have expected given the rallies in both. Next week’s data will capture the UK election and that should be instructive.

S&P and Nasdaq close at record levels.

  
Analysis, US Market
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

New all time highs in the S&P and Nasdaq too

The S&P and NASDAQ indices are closing at record levels. They also moved to all time record highs intraday.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index, +26.91 points or 0.86% to 3168.55. The new all time intraday high price reached 3176.28
  • NASDAQ index up 63.265 points or 0.73% to 8717.314. The new intraday all-time high price reached 8745.82
  • Dow up 220.62 points or 0.79% to 28131.92

Some winners on the day include:

  • AMD, +7.98%
  • Deutsche Bank, +4.26%
  • FedEx , +3.7%
  • Micron, +3.47%
  • Nvidia, +3.13%
  • Bank of America, +3.09%
  • Cisco, +3.07%
  • Charles Schwab, +2.98%
  • J.P. Morgan, +2.85%
  • PNC financial, +2.54%
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb, +2.48%
Some losers include:
  • Box, -2.82%
  • Facebook, -2.73%. There was an article in the Wall Street Journal saying that the FTC is looking for an injunction on how Facebook apps interact
  • Boeing, -3.66%
  • LYFT, -1.73%
  • Chipotle, -1.4%
  • Philip Morris, -1.13%
  • Twitter, -0.85%
  • Papa John’s, -0.62%
  • Lockheed Martin, -0.5%
  • Gilead, -0.21%

WTI crude oil futures settle at $58.43

  
Analysis, Crude
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Plus $2.33 or 4.1%

The price of WTI crude oil futures are settling at $58.43. That is a gain of $2.33 or 4.1%. The move higher today was helped by a bigger than expected drawdown of inventories of -4856K versus -1500K estimate.  News that Saudi Arabia is is threatening to keep production higher to punish producers who don’t keep to their quotas had little impact.
Plus $2.33 or 4.1%
Looking at the 60 minute chart above, the contract spiked above its 100 hour and 200 hour moving averages (blue and green lines) and extended up to the recent highs over the last 9 or so trading days between $58.67 and $58.74. The high price today reached $58.66. The low for the day was down at $56.28.
A move above this ceiling would be more bullish for the contract. Staying below, and we could see a rotation back down toward the 200 hour moving average of $57.46.

Morgan Stanley fires four FX traders after concealing $100-$140m loss

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Traders may have mismarked emerging markets trades

Morgan Stanley has fired or placed on leave four FX traders suspected of mismarking trades linked to emerging market currencies, Bloomberg reports.
The New York and London-based traders are part of a probe into mismarked trades that concealed a loss of $100-$140 million and is related to options trades.

The S&P and Dow off highs but still close at record highs

  
Analysis, US Market
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

All major indices close higher

The major stock indices closed off their high levels for the day as US/China trade deal details go back and forth.  However, they S&P and Dow still closed at record levels. The NASDAQ was higher but still off its record close level.
The final numbers are showing
  • S&P index, 8.42 points or 0.27% at 3085.20. The high reached 3097.77. The low extended to 3080.23
  • NASDAQ index +23.88 points or 0.28% at 8434.51. The high reached 8483.156. The low extended to 8415.87
  • Dow is up 182.24 points or 0.66% at 27674.80. The high for the day reached 27774.67 The low reached 27590.16
After the close, Disney EPS came in higher than expectations at $1.07 versus $0.95 estimate. The revenues came in at $19.10 billion versus $19.04 billion estimate.  Is the stock is trading at $136.00 after closing at $133.12.
Go to top