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US stocks close near session highs for the day

  
Analysis, US Market
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Nasdaq up 1.30%.  S&P up 1.08%

The US stocks are closing not far off the highs for the day, with the Nasdaq leading the way higher. Ever sector in the S&P was higher.  Dow closes higher for the 4th time in 5 sesssions.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P index closed up 31.51 points or 1.08% at 2937.78
  • The Nasdaq index closed up 102.72 points or 1.30% at 7976.87
  • The Dow index closed up 237.45 points or 0.91% at 26355.42
The % changes and ranges are outlined below. Yesterday, the indexes in US and Europe traded below the 0% line for all of the day. Today, the major indices all traded above the 0.0% line alll day.   All indices opened higher and traded higher.

Solid up day for the European stock indices today

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Major indices are all in the black

The major European stock indices are ending the day with solid gains, helped by decreased attention in Hong Kong, increasing hope for US/China relations, less no-deal risk for the UK, and more dovish Fed officials (the ECB is set to act in September too).
The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, +0.94%
  • France’s CAC, +1.21%
  • UK’s FTSE, +0.60%
  • Spains Ibex, +0.61%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +1.58%
In the benchmark 10 year note sector in Europe, yields are higher as well (with the exception of Italy).
Major indices are all in the blackIn other markets as London/European traders look to exit:
  • spot gold is near unchanged at $1547. The high price reached $1550.23. The low extended to $1533.93
  • WTI crude oil futures are up $2.25 or 4.17% at $56.17. That is near the high price for the day at $56.22. The US impose tighter sanctions on Iran today.
In the US stock market major indices are enjoying solid gains as well.  A snapshot of the market currently shows:
  • S&P index 27 points or 0.93% at 2933.22
  • NASDAQ composite index is up 84 points or 1.07% at 7958.13
  • Dow Jones industrial average is up 212 points or 0.81% at 26329.70
US yields have come off high levels and trade mixed with the longer and up marginally and the shorter end unchanged or down marginally:
US yields are trading mixedA snapshot of the forex market shows that the GBP is still the strongest of the majors (but off earlier higher levels). The JPY and USD remain the weakest.  The CAD  has gotten stronger on stronger oil and a was dovish Bank of Canada statement.

US stocks opened lower and closed lower

  
Analysis, US Market
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…but off lows for the day

The US major stock indices opened lower and closed lower. The low for the Dow reached -1.61%. For the Nasdaq it reached -1.45%. For the S&P it fell by as much as -1.18%.  However, the indices did recover some of those declines by the close.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P fell -20.02 points or -0.69% at 2906.27
  • The Nasdaq fell -88.72 points or -1.11% at 7874.16
  • The Dow fell -285.26 points or -1.08% at 26118
Below are the % ranges for the North American and European markets for the day.  All major indices are ending lower.

An ugly day for US equities. Major indices down for the week.

  
Analysis, US Market
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Dow falls over 600 points.  Nasdaq down -3.0%

It was an ugly day for the US equities. The Dow fell over 600 points. The Nasdaq is closing down -3%.  UGLY.
The escalation of the trade ward is to blame. Pres. Trump has threatened retaliation for the new China tariffs.  He also continued the criticism of the Fed’s Powell.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P fell -75.84 points or -2.59% at 2847.11
  • The Nasdaq fell -239.62 points or -3.00% at 7751.77
  • The Dow fell -623.34 points or -2.37% at 25628.90
Looking at the % ranges for the major indices below, the major indices in US and Europe all closed at or near the session lows today.
Dow falls over 600 points.  Nasdaq down -3.0%

Looking at the point changes, the Dow was down -745 points at the lows.

The point changes of the major indices
For the week, the major indices are ending the week in the red as well:
  • The S&P fell -1.43%
  • The Nasdaq fell -1.83%
  • The Dow fell -0.99%.
Big losers today:
  • AMD, -7.4%
  • Broadcom, -5.39%
  • NVIDIA, -5.16%
  • Tesla, -4.84%
  • Qualcomm, -4.71%
  • Apple, -4.62%
  • Alibaba, -4.29%
  • Micron, -4.06%
  • Intel, -3.89%
  • American Express, -3.65%

US stocks mixed as attention turns to Fed

  
  Analysis
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US stocks were mixed as Federal Reserve officials cast doubts on further rate cuts and a reading on domestic manufacturing stoked concerns over the health of the economy. The S&P 500 ticked 0.1 per cent lower after drifting between gains and losses, with investors turning their attention to the central bank’s annual summit where chairman Jay Powell will speak on Friday. The Nasdaq Composite was down 0.4 per cent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2 per cent on a rally in shares of Boeing. Central bankers from around the world have descended on Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for a policy symposium that is closely watched by investors seeking clues on monetary policy.

Market participants are looking for the Fed to follow its July rate cut with another one in September, but at the start of the Jackson Hole gathering on Thursday, Philadelphia Fed president Patrick Harker and Kansas City Fed president Esther George indicated in television interviews that they would not back further cuts. “My sense was we’ve added accommodation, and it wasn’t required in my view,” Ms George, one of two dissenters in the July decision, told CNBC. Mr Harker, who is not a voting member of the Fed’s policy setting committee, said he believes the federal funds rate is around its neutral level, adding: “I think we should stay here for a while and see how things play out.” The US 10- and two-year yield curve inverted for the second time this week following the remarks. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury rose 3.3 basis points to 1.6097 per cent, while the policy-sensitive two-year yield was up 4.5bp at 1.6141 per cent. An inverted yield curve is considered a sign that investors expect a recession.

US stock closes higher, but off the higher extreme

  
Analysis, US Market
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Nasdaq leads the indices on the day. Dow lags

The major US stock indices are ending the session with solid gains but off the session highs. The indices opened higher and remained higher on the back of the Trump administration talking up the economy and more Fed criticism (and calls for sharply lower rates ….i.e. Pres. Trump wants 100 bps lower).  The Trump Administration also extended its reprieve on penalties for doing business with Huawei which gave a boost to stocks.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P index up 34.97 points or 1.21% at 2923.65. The high reached 2931.00. The low extended to 2913.48.
  • The Nasdaq index is closing up 106.81 points or 1.35% at 8002. 81. The high reached 8026.75. The low reached 7974.25
  • The Dow is closing up 249.78 points or 0.96% at 26135.79. The high reached 26222.32. The low reached 26020.06.

CFTC commitment of traders: GBP shorts trimmed modestly. JPY longs increased.

  
Analysis, Forex
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Forex futures positioning data among noncommercial traders for the week ending August 13, 2019

  • EUR short 47K vs 44K short last week. Shorts increased by 3K
  • GBP short 96K vs 102K short last week. Shorts decreased by 6K
  • JPY long 25K vs 11K short last week. Longs increased by 14K
  • CHF short 13k vs 16k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 3K
  • AUD short 63k vs 55k short last week. Shorts increased by 8K
  • NZD short 13K vs 12K short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
  • CAD long 14K vs 24K long last week.  Longs trimmed by 10K

Highlights:

  • JPY and CAD remain long, while the other major currencies maintain short position
  • The JPY longs increased by 14K. That is the largest long position since November 2016 (see chart below).
  • CAD longs were trimmed by 10K.
  • GBP shorts were trimmed modestly in the current week to 96K but the position remains the largest speculative position. The GBP moved modestly higher in the week.

JPY longs are the largest since November 2016

The Dog Days of August are Upon Us

  
  Analysis
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The die is cast. To defend the uneven expansion and ward off disinflationary forces, monetary authorities will provide more accommodation.  The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut in more than a decade and stopped unwinding its balance sheet two months earlier than it previously indicated (worth $100 bln of additional buying of Treasuries and Agencies).  Following the end of the tariff truce, and after the July jobs report,  the market was certain the Fed would cut rates again in September, according to Bloomberg and CME calculations).
The ECB has signaled its intention to ease policy in September.  It is also thought to be considering several different tools, including a deeper negative deposit rate, renewed asset purchases, and perhaps, easier terms for the TLTRO that will be forthcoming at the start of Q4.
The BOJ has downgraded its growth forecasts and acknowledges that it will not meet its inflation target for at least the next two years.   It is unlikely to move until the after October when the impact of the sales tax increase can be assessed.
The US has lifted the debt ceiling and suspending spending caps.  US fiscal policy is less restrictive, and there is talk that the Trump Administration will support efforts to index capital gains.  UK government spending to prepare for a no-deal exit will increase, but it may prove insufficient to offset the private sector investment paralysis.  Germany, it would seem from the outside, has the need and resources to expand fiscal policy (and funding at negative yields), but it lacks the will.   On the other hand, Italy has the will but lacks the means.  Japan can provide a supplemental budget if the sales tax increase makes it necessary.

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CFTC Commitment of Traders: Positions are marginally changed

  
Analysis, Forex
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Forex futures positioning data among noncommercial traders for the week ending July 23, 2019

  • EUR short 39K vs 31K short last week. Shorts increased by 8K
  • GBP short 79K vs 76K short last week. Shorts increased by 3K
  • JPY short 9K vs 11K short last week. Short trimmed by 2K
  • CHF short 13k vs 12k short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
  • AUD short 48 k vs 53k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 5K
  • NZD short 12K vs 17K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 5K
  • CAD long 31K vs 21K long last week.  Longs increased by 10K
  • Prior week

Highlights:

  • GBP shorts remain as the largest position. The GBPUSD moved to new 27 month lows today rewarding those traders.
  • AUD shorts are the 2nd largest position and the AUD moved to new month lows today retracing the run higher from the June 10 low
  • The EUR shorts increased by 8K. The EURUSD moved modestly lower this week. The EUR short has been cut from over -100K short to 31K (the fall in short positions seems to have slowed over the last month.
  • Speculators remain long the CAD. It is the only major foreign-currency long position versus the US dollar

Forex futures positioning data among noncommercial traders for the week ending July 23, 2019

US Major indices all close at record highs (and close at the highs for the day)

  
Analysis, US Market
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S&P index closes above the 3000 level for the 1st time ever

Its the Triple Crown. All three of the major US stock indices closed at session highs. For the S&P index, it is closing above the 3K level for the very first time after toying with moves above on Wednesday and Thursday only to fail.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P index of 13.84 points or 0.46% at 3013.75
  • THE NASDAQ index of 48 points 102 points or 0.59% at 8244.14
  • The Dow is up 243.95 points or 0.90% at 27332.02
Below is a graphical look at the %low, %high and %close. The highs and the close % are basically the same thing today.
For the week, the major indices are ending higher with the Dow leading the way:

  • Dow, up 1.52%
  • Nasdaq, up 1.01%
  • S&P, up 0.78%
For the month of July, the major indices have tacked on decent gains (after a stellar 1H)
  • Dow up 2.75%
  • S&P, up 2.45%
  • Nasdaq up 2.97%.
Next week will begin earning announcements for the 2Q. Below are a snapshot of some of the major releases over the next two weeks, starting with Citigroup on Monday and JP Morgan on Tuesday. The market is going into earnings at all time record highs (I don’t know if that is good or bad).  The market seems extended but it is “hard to fight City Hall”
the earnings calendar for the next few weeks
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