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Bloodbath : Major indices get hammered. All 3 major indices down -4.4% on the day

  
Analysis, US Market
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Major indices lose 1% additional in the last 15 minutes of trading on major liquidation

the major indices in the US get hammered once again with the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq indices all lower by -4.4%

The S&P and Dow had there worst point drop in history (not % though).  Major indices all closed in correction (down over 10% from the highs).
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index, -137.89 points or -4.42% at 2978.51.
  • The NASDAQ index -414.29 points or 4.61% at 8566.48.
  • Dow industrial average 1192.27 points or -4.42% at 29765.33
Year to date, the
  • Dow is down -9.71%
  • S&P is down -7.8%
  • Nasdaq is down -4.53%
From the high last week, the major indices are showing:
  • NASDAQ index -13%
  • S&P is down -12.30%
  • Dow is down about 12.9%
The Vix, often called the fear index has moved up to 38.5. That surpasses the 36.2 high from December 2018.  That’s the highest level since February 2018. The highest volatility index going back to 2015 moved up to 50.3 and 2018 and 53.29 and 2015.

The good news is that the European stock markets are closed

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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German DAX, -3.1%. France’s CAC down -3.8%

The good news for the European stock markets is that they are close for the day.  Each of the major indices had sharp declines. Sometimes closing feels good. The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, -3.1%
  • France’s CAC, -3.2%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, -3.5%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -3.8%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -2.6%
To give an idea of the year to date performance of the major indices :
  • Germany, -6.65%
  • France, -7.6%
  • UK FTSE 100, -9.7%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -5.6%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -2.8%
Comparing to the US market year-to-date:
  • Dow industrial average, -7.6%
  • S&P index, -5.63%
  • NASDAQ index -2.42%
In Asia the year-to-date’s are showing:
  • Japan’s Nikkei, -7.22%
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, -5.01%
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 -0.39%
  • China’s Shanghai index -1.93%

In other markets as London/European traders look to exit:

  • gold is trading up $12.80 or 0.78% at $1653.72
  • WTI crude oil futures are trading down $-2.08 or -4.25% of $46.66
In the US stock market the snapshot of the major indices currently shows:
  • S&P index -69.3 points or -2.22% of 3047.44
  • NASDAQ index -221.2 points or -2.46% at 8759.96
  • Dow -578 points or at -2.17% at 26371
In the US debt market yields are sharply lower with the 2 year down -8.9 basis points. The 10 year is down -5.8 basis points.. The 2 – 10 yield spread has widened to 20.42 basis points from 17.24 basis points yesterday on increasing expectations that the FOMC will be forced to lower rates
US yields are lower across the board with a letter yield curve
In the European debt market, yields are mixed with German, France, and UK yields lower while Spain, Italy, Portugal yields are higher (flight to safety and out of the riskier countries):
European yields are mixed
In the forex market, the EUR is the strongest (and got stronger in the session).  Germany did say earlier today that they would contemplate more fiscal stimulus and technicals improved. The EURUSD did run into resistance against the 1.100 level however.
The weakest currency is the CAD as oil continues to get hammered. The GBP and USD are also weaker on the day:

SEC disapproves plan to list bitcoin ETF

  
Analysis, BITCOIN
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ETF rejected

It was already a tough day for bitcoin but news that the SEC has disapproved a plan to list a bitcoin ETF on NYSE ARCA is now breaking. Regulators cited concerns over Bitcoin manipulation.
There are a few people trying to get an ETF approved, I’m not sure exactly which one this is but it doesn’t bode well for anyone who is trying to convince the SEC.

The front end is pining for Fed cuts

  
  Analysis
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The bottom continues to fall out

The bottom continues to fall out
US 2-year yields are now trading more than 40 basis points below Fed funds. The odds of a March 18 cut in the OIS market have risen to 35% from 6% last Thursday.
Many market participants are deciding that they would rather get 1.14% for the next two years than hold stocks. If you believe this is going to be a pandemic, that’s entirely reasonable because the Fed will cut to zero and the dollar is always does well in times of trouble.
It’s incredible how the thinking in markets can go from ‘return on capital’ to ‘return of capital’ in a few days.

European shares end the session with sharp declines

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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German DAX -1.8%

The major European shares are ending the session with sharp declines. For the year, the major European indices are also in the red.  A look at the provisional closes are showing:

  • German DAX, -1.8%
  • France’s CAC, -2.0%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, -1.9%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -2.4%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -1.4%
For the year, changes are all in the red led by a 7% decline in the UK FTSE 100.
  • German DAX, -3.4%
  • France’s CAC, -5%
  • UK’s FTSE, -7%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -3.1%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -1.6%
In other markets as the European/London traders look to exit are showing:
  • Gold is still negative. It is trading down $10.80 or -0.65% at $1648.10. The spot price tried rebound and move higher on the fall in stocks, but seems to have sellers above. Recall that in yesterday’s trade, there was a large seller reported in the futures market which helped push the price lower in the New York afternoon session
  • WTI crude oil futures are following the risk off sentiment with the contract trading down -$0.89 or -1.7% at $50.54. The price is not far off the low at $50.37. The high reached $52.02
In the US stock market, the NASDAQ is leading the charge to the downside. It is currently down -100 points or -1.11% and 9116.
  • Dow -308 points or -1.11% at 27653
  • S&P index -34.5 points or -1.07% at 3191
  • Nasdaq down -100 points or -1.11% at 9116

Dow tumbles more than 1000 points. Worst day since Feb 8, 2018

  
Analysis, US Market
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S&P worse day since December 2018

The Dow is closing down over 1000 points on the day. It is the workstations February 8, 2018. The S&P index at its worst day since December 2018.  The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq each fell over 3.3% on the day with the NASDAQ hit the hardest at -3.71%.
The Dow and the S&P are now negative on the year:
  • Dow -2.02%
  • S&P index, -0.15%
  • The Nasdaq index is still up on the year at +2.77%
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index -111.82 points or -3.35% at 3225.93.  The low price for the day reach 3214.65. The high extended to 3259.81.
  • Nasdaq index fell minus 355.309 points or -3.71% at 9221.28. The low for the day reached 9166.00. The high reached 9322.879.
  • Dow fell -1031.33 points or -3.56% at 27961. The low for the day reached 27912.44. The high for the day was up at 28402.93

Big losers on the day include:

  • United health, -7.87%
  • AMD, -7.83%
  • Tesla, -7.49%
  • Schlumberger, -7.4%
  • Nvidia, -7.13%
  • Delta airlines -6.31%
  • Twitter, -6.29%
  • Wynn Resort, -6.03%
  • Intuitive Surgical -5.38%
  • Morgan Stanley, -5.21%
  • Charles Schwab, -5.19%
  • FedEx -5.16%
  • Citigroup, -5.10%
  • American Express, -4.97%
  • Cisco, -4.95%
  • Visa, -4.82%
Are there any winners today?
  • Gilead, +4.66%
  • US steel, +1.73%
  • Chewy, +1.3%
  • First Solar, +1.25%
  • Verizon, -0.3%. Verizon was the strongest of the Dow 30 stocks
  • General Mills only fell -0.37%

 

30 year yield falls to a new all time low

  
  Analysis
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The headline of the day is that the 30 year yield traded to a new all time low of 1.8843%. That took out the August 2019 low yield of 1.9039% and although the yield is closing above that old low, the closing level will be the lowest on record.

Forex news for NY trading on February 21, 2020

Helping the yields move lower is the:

  • Expectation of a cut in US rates by July and potential for another cut later in the year
  • Flight to safety flows
  • Lower global growth from the coronavirus
  • Dollar buying as the US remains a safe haven
  • The Markit Service and Composite PMI data was below the 50.0 level while the manufacturing index was lower than expectations as well.
The 10 year yield also moved lower and approached the swing low from 2019 at 1.4272%. The low yield today reached 1.4359% before rebounding into the close to 1.4700%.  The all time low yield was in 2016 at 1.3180% (see chart below).
The 10 year yield fell below support at 1.50% and looks toward the 2019 low yield at 1.4272%
Below is a table of the current, high and low yields for the US debt along the yield curve.   The 2-10 year spread also flattened to 12.14 basis points from 12.60 basis points yesterday.
The US yields are moving lower. US stocks today fell with the Nasdaq leading the way down. For the day, the Nasdaq fell -1.79% after being down as much as 2.14% at the low. The S&P index closed down a more modest -1.05% after falling as much as -1.33%.   For the week, the major indices fell with the Dow down -1.46%, the S&P down -1.07% and the Nasdaq index down -1.39%.
Gold was another big mover today and this week. The price of gold is trading up $24.00 or 1.48% at $1643.43. The high for the day reached $1649.26. That was the highest level since February 2013. For the week, the price of gold settled last Friday at $1584. The current price at $1643.43 is a $59.43 gain for the week or 3.75% gain.   Big breakout move for gold this week.
Gold moved up nearly $60 this week
The fall in stocks, rise in gold, fall in yields led to a fall in the USD today. The USD was the weakest of the major currencies today. The strongest currency was the GBP (but it came off the highs in the NY session).   The dollar fell by 0.61% vs the GBP. It also fell versus the EUR by -.59% vs the EUR and -0.58% vs the CHF.

Japan core machinery orders for December -12.5% m/m (expected -8.9%)

  
Analysis, Economy
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A capex indicator for Japan in the months ahead, 6 to 9 months out.

-12.5% m/m
  • expected -8.9%, prior 18.0% m/m
-3.5% y/y
  • expected -0.7%, prior 5.3% y/y
The m/m is very volatile, the y/y is a little smoother. Both are misses though.
As part of the process the Cabinet Office survey manufacturers:
  • the firms expect core orders will fall 5.2% in Q1 of this year (from -2.1% in Q4 2019)

Charlie Munger warns ‘lots of troubles coming’ – ‘too much wretched excess’

  
  Analysis
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Charlie Munger is Warren Buffett’s longtime business partner and vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway

CNBC have this report up on his comments at a shareholders meeting.
  • “In China, … they love to gamble in stocks. This is really stupid,” Munger said. “It’s hard to imagine anything dumber than the way the Chinese hold stocks.”
  • To make his point about excess, Munger cited the proliferation of EBITDA as a fake profit metric. “I don’t like when investment bankers talk about EBITDA, which I call bulls— earnings,” 
Here is the link for more.
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