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US stocks end near the lows but give up gains

  
Analysis, US Market
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Early declines still holding the lows

The US stocks are ending the day near, but above) the day’s lows (from earlier in the day) but they gave up gains in the processs in what was an up and down day.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P index fell -13.22 points or -0.45% at 2938.79. The high reached 2959.75. The low extended to 2935.68
  • The NASDAQ index fell -26.181 points or -0.33% at 7956.29. The high reached 8013.316. The low extended to 7942.08
  • The down industrial average fell -95.70 points or -0.36% at 26478. The high reached 26655.84. The low extended to 26424.54

The NASDAQ index closed below its 100 day moving average at 7967.39. The index close back above that MA on Friday. Failure to keep the momentum to the upside going is a disappointment for the bulls.

The S&P index remains above its 100 day moving average at 2928.07, but is closing below its 50 day moving average at 2940.64

CFTC commitments of traders: The largest position remains GBP shorts

  
Analysis, Forex
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Forex futures positioning data for the week ending September 24, 2019 from the CFTC  should

  • EUR short 66K vs 61K short last week. Shorts increased by 5K
  • GBP short 77K vs 81K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K
  • JPY long 14K vs 13K long last week. Longs trimmed by 1kK
  • CHF short 12k vs 11k short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
  • AUD short 52k vs 47k short last week. Shorts increased by 5K
  • NZD short 42K vs 45K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 3K
  • CAD long 6K vs 5K long last week.  Longs increased by 1K
  • prior week

Modest changes in the major currencies for the current week. Although speculators trimmed short positions in the pound, it remains the largest specular position. The EUR shorts increased by 5K. It is the 2nd largest short position.

The specular position in the JPY remains on the long side. The CAD is also a long position for traders.

Pres. Trump sounds off….

  
  Analysis
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…Stocks are not liking the optics of it all

Pres. Trump is sounding off as he defends himself in the way he knows how. Below are a sampling of the recent tweets:
...Stocks are not liking the optics of it all
He is also on the wires saying:
  • He thinks the whistleblower should be protected if he is a legitimate whistleblower
But adds:
  • Person who provided whistleblower information is a spy
What does it have to do with the market?
Stocks continue to suffer, as things are seemingly more and more in disarray.
The S&P is currently down 56 points or -1.9% at 2884.30. The NASDAQ is down 142 points or -1.8% at 7766.  Both are near lows for the day.

S&P index

Gold prices remain elevated at plus $21.50 or 1.45% at $1500.50.
The USD is mixed
  • The USDJPY is seeing the safe haven flows and trades near lows for the day
  • The USDCHF, which was up near 90 pips earlier after weaker CPI inflation, has moved back to mid range.
  • The EURUSD moved to new highs on some dollar selling
  • The GBPUSD has also recovered (dollar selling) after being lower on Brexit concerns earlier.

US major indices ending near session lows

  
Analysis, US Market
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Not a good day for the major stock indices

The major US stock indices were spooked by weaker than expected ISM manufacturing data . Shortly after the data came out, the major indices turned from being up to being down.

The momentum continued through the day.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index, -36.56 points or -1.23% in 2940.18. That is just off the session low at 2938.70. The pair fell below its 50 day moving average today which had been holding support for most of September. That MA comes in at 2948 area.  Stay below going forward keeps the bears in control.  The 100 day MA is down at 2925.50 currently.  A move below that level increases the bearish bias for the pair
  • NASDAQ index, -90.654 points or -1.3% at 7908.68. The low for the day reach 7906.293. For the Nasdaq index, it tumbled below its 100 day moving average at 7963.81 today.  The next major target would be its 200 day moving average. However that is still a bit away at 7704.411.
  • Dow fell -343.79 points of -1.28% at 26573.04.. The low for the index reached 26562.22.
Selling with broad-based today with all the major sectors moving lower.
Some of the major losers today included:
  • Charles Schwab, -9.73%. They lowered commissions $0 on trades
  • DuPont, -4.73%
  • Schlumberger, -4.36%
  • 3M, -3.67%
  • General Motors, -3.66%
  • Slack, -3.46%
  • Cisco, -3.36%
  • Caterpillar, -3.14%
  • Morgan Stanley, -3.05%
  • Ford motors, -2.84%
  • Wells Fargo, -2.76%
  • Fed ex, -2.72%
  • McDonald’s, -2.64%
  • Bank of America, -2.50%
  • Exxon Mobil, -2.37%
  • Twitter, -2.33%
  • Goldman Sachs, -2.20%
Some winners on the day included
  • Phillip Morris, +2.52%
  • Tesla, +1.59%
  • Visa, +1.34%
  • Box, Inc, +1.15%
  • Wynn resorts, +1.11%
  • Netflix, +0.73%
  • Papa John’s +0.42%
  • Coca-Cola, +0.37%
  • Apple, +0.25%
  • Pepsi, +0.20%

CFTC Commitments of Traders: Canadian dollar buyers bail

  
Analysis, Forex
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Forex futures positioning data for the week ending September 24, 2019 from the CFTC:

Forex futures positioning data for the week ending September 24, 2019 from the CFTC:
  • EUR short 61K vs 69K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 8K
  • GBP short 81K vs 86K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 5K
  • JPY long 13K vs 24K long last week. Longs trimmed by 11K
  • CHF short 11k vs 5k short last week. Shorts increased by 6K
  • AUD short 47k vs 54k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 7K
  • NZD short 36K vs 30K short last week. Shorts increased by 6K
  • CAD long 5K vs 20K long last week.  Longs trimmed by 15K

There were some substantial moves across the board in this week’s data. There was no overarching theme in the US dollar. The loonie has stubbornly held onto longs but I suspect the jump in oil prices and lack of a corresponding climb in the loonie may have sent some specs to the sidelines — that data certainty hasn’t eroded.

Overnight :Not a good day on Wall Street as major indices react to potential impeachment proceedings

  
Analysis, US Market
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Nasdaq stocks lead the charge lower

The US major industries are closing lower on the day led by the NASDAQ stocks. Some major stocks like Netflix and Amazon fell sharply.  Today Netflix’s most bullish analyst slashed his price target for the stock from $515-$350. The stock was as high as $380 in July. For Amazon it fell below its 200 day moving average today.
The closing numbers for the major indices are showing:
  • S&P index, -25.18 points or -0.84% at 2966.60
  • NASDAQ index fell -118.83 points or -1.46% at 7993.62
  • Dow fell -142.22 point surmise 0.53 present at 26807.73
Although the indices were off the lows for the day (see % chante ranges for the major indices in North America and Europe below), they are ending nearer the lows for the day.

German media report that USD will be 50% backing for Facebook crypto Libra

  
  Analysis
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Weekend report in Reuters on the cryptocurrency, citing Speigel

US dollar will make up 50 percent of the basket of currencies backing Facebook’s planned digital coin Libra
euro, yen, sterling and Singapore dollar comprising the rest
yuan will not be included
Exclusion of yuan “could help smooth the planned cryptocurrency’s path in the United States” says Reuters
More:
  • US dollar would make up 50 percent of the basket
  • euro with 18 percent
  • yen with 14 percent
  • GBP 11 percent
  • SGD 7 percent
While we are at it, BTC update:
Weekend report in Reuters on the cryptocurrency, citing Speigel

Watch Warren Buffett’s first ever television interview

  
Analysis, Video
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Warren Buffett feels like he’s been around forever but he was far from a household name until the late 1990s.
His first television interview didn’t take place until 1985, when he was 55-years old. What’s incredible is that he was saying then is consistent to everything he’s said in the 34 years since.
It underscores that trading isn’t about information, it’s about process. It’s his same ‘circle of competence game’ that doesn’t include chasing what’s hot.
“I don’t have to win at every game,” he said. “There are no called strikes in this game, they just keep pitching, you don’t have to swing at any of them.”
Another interesting point for the long-term investor is that he was cautious of excess noise, something that the internet has brought everywhere.
Given all the changes in the world since this interview — and the remarkable outperformance of tech — it’s truly amazing (and telling) that he’s had so much success.

US Indices close with mixed results. Earlier gains taken away.

  
Analysis, US Market
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S&P unchanged. Nasdaq up marginally. Dow down.

The major US stock indices are closing the day with mixed results.  Each however had earlier gains taken away into the close.
Looking at the three major indices, one ended unchanged, one was up marginally and one was down.  The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index, unchanged at 3006.79. The high reach 3021.99.. The low extended to 3003.16
  • NASDAQ closed up 5.487 points or 0.07% at 8182.87. The high reached 8237.43. The low extended 28174.32
  • The Dow industrial average closed down -52.29 points or -0.19% at 27094.79. The high reached 27272.17. The low extended to 27064.21.
The chart below shows the percentage change high, the percentage change low, and the closing percentage change for the major North American and European stock indices today. European shares closed near their high levels for the day. The US major indices closed near their session lows.
S&P unchanged. Nasdaq up marginally. Dow down.

What seemed to be a negative catalyst for stocks was a report that a White House official commented that tariffs on China could go as high as 50 to 100%. That spooked the market and prices started to ratchet lower.

Global currency trading volumes surge to highest-ever level

  
Analysis, Forex
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Trading hits $6.6 billion per day

Trading hits $6.6 billion per day
Trading in the foreign exchange market has hit $6.6 trillion per day, according to the latest survey from the Bank of International Settlements.
The BIS today reported today that volume in the survey month of April rose 29% compared to 2016. The comprehensive survey is conducted every three years.
Aside from the jump, what stands out was the rise in swaps trading — which is now nearly half the market.
Other key details:
  • 88% of all trades include USD
  • London accounts for 43% of all activity
  • US trading is 17%
  • EM currencies are now 25% of turnover
  • Trading involving the euro hit 32%
  • Trading involving the yen at 17%
  • Yuan trading is 4%
  • Spot FX trading rose 20% to $2 trillion
The changes in volumes of the major currencies was muted compared to 2016 aside from a small drop in the yen but that may have been due to lower volatility in the survey month.
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