Archives of “expectation” tag

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Vision

  
  Education
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Vision – Although an expectation of total clairvoyance as to future price movement is unrealistic, it is my goal as a trader to assimilate as much information as possible with the goal of playing out scenarios that tie in with each other.

This is not always easy to do. Yet, understanding trading does not occur in a vacuum, and markets do exhibit oddities. You can get yourself mentally prepared to deal with these outlier events. Those who can think for themselves and need not rely on templatized news releases for their ideas usually put themselves in a position to benefit from their forward thinking.

We have heard many times about leaders who saw an industry trend before it happened. This was no accident. It came as a result of their understanding of their field and what could change it for the better. Traders who gain an understanding of how things can potentially play out and factor that into their trading strategy go a long way toward keeping their objectivity when things unfold in a fast and volatile market.

7 Unfortunate Habits of Unhappy People

  
  Education
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1.  Playing it too safe.

Don’t play it so safe that you put yourself in situations where none of your potential options satisfy your calling.  Dream your dream, but also realize that you are more than just the dreamer, you are the point of origin for your dream’s reality.

Your dream is your creative vision for your future life.  You must break out of your current comfort zone and become comfortable with the unfamiliar.  Start smashing through those emotional barriers.  Move forward.  Life doesn’t magically give you what you want in your mind; it gives you what you insist upon with your actions.  Read The Power of Habit.

2.  Continuous self doubt.

You will inevitably become who you believe yourself to be.

If you spend enough time saying, “I’m not smart enough, thin enough and rich enough,” it’s likely that you will someday be right.  On the contrary, if you havethe belief that you are smart enough, thin enough and rich enough now to take the next positive step forward, over time you will likely acquire the capacity to be these very things at your desired level of expectation. (more…)

Doubt and Disappointment

  
  Education
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We all want certainty both in and outside the charts. Problem is certainty is nothing more than hope wrapped in expectation.  Life is uncertain. A successful trade is uncertain.  If certainty is what we want then certainty we will get.  However, be prepared to meet certainty’s friends, doubt and disappointment.  Doubt and disappointment are, shall we say, in “cahoots” with certainty.  You can’t have one without the other.  This is a blessing really that we all too often turn into a curse.  A blessing because we have two new friends who can help keep us balanced, honest, and above all, human.  A curse because we choose to ignore their advice when we should be embracing it.  Embrace it you say?  Yes.  Because doubt and disappointment can lead to new discoveries and a deeper appreciation for what life has to offer.  Maybe, just maybe, what we believe to be certain, you know, that which we wrap up in hope and expectation, is not so certain after all.  Maybe, just maybe, our friends doubt and disappointment can lead us down a better path and a better life.  Maybe, just maybe, doubt and disappointment can teach us a new understanding about the markets and the charts, wherein we pin so many of our hopes and expectations.

What a ride this market has been on!  No roller coaster can compare. And the ride is far from over and triple digit days will continue for some time.  Today could easily be a triple digit day to the upside or downside or both!  Who knows? We have no certainty about where this consolidation will end and in what direction.  All I know is when a certain trend begins we will still be faced with doubt and disappointment, either because we doubt the new trend or are disappointed that the direction is not quite what we expected, when we expected it.  Then again, nothing in the market is quite what we expect.  Don’t be surprised if the market does exactly the opposite of what you want or expect.  If you are certain of its direction…I have two friends to introduce you to.

10 Lessons for Traders

  
  Education
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1. Trading affects psychology as much as psychology affects trading – This was really the motivating factor behind my writing the new book. Many traders experience stress and frustration because they are trading poorly and lack a true edge in the marketplace. Working on your emotions will be of limited help if you are putting your money at risk and don’t truly have an edge.

2. Emotional disruption is present even among the most successful traders – A trading method that produces 60% winners will experience four consecutive losses 2-3% of the time and as much time in flat performance as in an uptrending P/L curve. Strings of events (including losers) occur more often by chance than traders are prepared for.

3. Winning disrupts the trader’s emotions as much as losing – We are disrupted when we experience events outside our expectation. The method that is 60% accurate will experience four consecutive winners about 13% of the time. Traders are just as susceptible to overconfidence during profitable runs as underconfidence during strings of losers.

4. Size kills – The surest path toward emotional damage is to trade size that is too large for one’s portfolio. We experience P/L in relation to our portfolio value. When we trade too large, we create exaggerated swings of winning and losing, which in turn create exaggerated emotional swings. (more…)

The secret to trading success: You.

  
  Education
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You are the weakest part of your system. It is a defeatist statement. It makes your expectation to fail easier to accomplish and more importantly it makes failure easier to handle. It shifts the pressure away from you and unto fate.

Would you fly on an airline if their motto was “Our pilots are the weakest part.” I do not think so. You are your system. Even if your system is automated you added the inputs, parameters.

Taking responsibility for your action is not easy. Taking control of the outcomes of trading or life is a huge responsibility. You will have moments of weakness, but you are not weak. The market does not go straight up and either does the road to success.

 

10 Things A Trader Needs to START DOING …To Mint Money

  
  Education
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There are many trading principles that are common among  successful rich traders. It is important to learn the things that allow them to win so we can follow in their footsteps and make money. There are 10 things that new traders can start doing tomorrow to improve their results immediately. If you have been trading for awhile but have not been profitable these  may be things that you need to start doing to stop losing money.

 1. Start trading the price action by using charts. The market doesn’t care about your opinions but the chart expresses the collective actions of all market participants. Learn to understand what the chart is saying.

Start to understand that the market determines whether any single trade wins or loses not you and not an imaginary “they”.

2. We can only surf the price waves not control them. 

Start to take 100% responsibility for your losses.

3. You enter the trade, you exit the trade, the wins and losses are yours alone. The blame game is a losing game in the markets.

Start to bounce back from losing trades quickly, move on don’t ruminate.

4. If your position size and risk management are correct no one losing trade should emotionally devastate you it should be only one of the next hundred trades with little significance by itself.

Start caring more about what the market is doing and less about what you think it should be doing.

5. ALL that really matters is current price action not your opinion of what might be price action later.  (more…)

Cut your losses and let your winners ride

  
  Education
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This quote is the perfect corollary to Livermore’s. Just as he preached “sitting”, letting your winners ride is the same idea. If you have on a position and it’s working, let it make you money. Don’t cut it prematurely for the sake of booking a small profit. Don’t get scared and exit on the first reaction, when all of your trading rules dictate staying in. If it’s a winner, and it’s working, then let it ride. Winners are good—embrace them.

The important flip side is how to treat losing trades. The first lesson is that losers have to be cut at some point.  Otherwise, a losing trade can keep eating away at your P&L, undoing the profits from any winning positions. If you cut losses at a pre-defined level, then they stop—and presumably your wins can be larger than your losses.

The math behind this is compelling. If you assume that your average winner make 1.6x what your average loser loses, then you only need to be right 40% of the time in order to make money consistently. By keeping the leash short on your losses, then you can let the math of statistical expectation work in your favor. Cut losses and let your winners ride.

There is another aspect to this. A loser isn’t just a trade where you get stopped out at a pre-defined loss limit. Imagine a trade that isn’t making money and has just been languishing on your books—this is also a loser. Cut it, free up financial and mental capital  and move on.

10 Trading Mistakes

  
  Education
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10 Trading Mistakes1. Refusing to define a loss.

2. Not liquidating a losing trade, even after you have acknowledged the trade’s potential is greatly diminished.

3. Getting locked into a specific opinion or belief about market direction. From a psychological perspective this is equivalent to trying to control the market with your expectation of what it will do: “I’m right, the market is wrong.”

4. Focusing on price and the monetary value of a trade, instead of the potential for the market to move based on its behavior and structure.

5. Revenge-trading as if you were trying get back at the market for what it took away from you.

6. Not reversing your position even when you clearly sense a change in market direction.

7. Not following the rules of the trading system.

8. Planning for a move or feeling one building, but then finding yourself immobilized to hit the bid or offer, and therefore denying yourself the opportunity to profit.

9. Not acting on your instincts or intuition.

10. Establishing a consistent pattern of trading success over a period of time, and then giving your winnings back to the market in one or two trades and starting the cycle over again.

Speculation and Trading vs. Gambling

  
  Education
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When does trading become gambling? There is a very thin line. I maintain that most traders ARE gamblers. They use markets as a substitute for a casino.

1. IF you enter trades without a clear trading plan, you just might be a gambler.

2. IF you trade just to be trading, you just might be a gambler.

3. IF your bored and enter a trade, you just might be a gambler.

4. IF you look at potential profit before assessing potential loses, you just might be a gambler.

5. IF you have no impulse control, you just might be a gambler.

6. IF you have no methodology, you just might be a gambler.

7. IF you rely on others for your trading decisions, you just might be a gambler.

8. IF you do not take full responsibility for your trading outcomes, you just might be a gambler.

9. IF you increase your risk due to losses, you just might be a gambler.

10. IF you do not use stop losses or do not adhere to them, you just might be a gambler.

And my all time favorite

11. IF you get an adrenaline rush when your entering trades, you just might be a gambler.

In summation I would like to say that I do enjoy casino gambling as a form of entertainment. I strive to over come the house’s edge when I do gamble. Gambling is entertainment and trading is a business and should be approached as a business enterprise. IF your using the markets as a gambling outlet, be my guest. Traders that approach trading with a positive expectancy WILL take all your money. They will send you stumbling out into the night, cross-eyed and mumbling to yourself. Be smart. You can either feed the trading gods or feed your head. Do the work and get educated before risking one thin dime. Employ laser like focus in your trading and use iron discipline. The end result can be well beyond your wildest expectation.

4 Types of Trades

  
  Education
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4type

Stock trading consists of 4 major types of trades.

The range-bound trade: the stock is tied in a range and will remain there until there is a significant change in the supply/demand dynamics. For this trade you fade any move to the boundaries of the range with a tight stop a little bit below/above the range. If the range is broken, you will lose small amount. It is good for scalpers with shorter trading horizon.

The breakout trade: in order to break from a range, a stock needs to experience a major shift in supply/demand. A dramatic occurrence. News or expectation of news. The news doesn’t have to be connected with the individual stock. It might be something that impacts the whole industry or market. Sudden change in participants’ confidence. Not every breakout will be caused by clear news. Often it will happen at no news at all. In any case, volume should be your tell how genuine the move is. Buy several cents above the range with a stop several cents into the range. (more…)

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