Archives of “Euro” tag

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A couple of Brexit scenarios to ponder (and what they mean for EUR/GBP)

  
Analysis, Forex
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An overnight bank note (Rabo) on Brexit and euro / sterling

(in brief, and note this prior to Wednesday’s UK voting)
If legislation to rule out a no deal Brexit is rushed through parliament, the pound can be expected to rise. If it were decided that the Brexit deadline were to be extended but that the legal default position of the UK remains that a no deal Brexit could still take place at a future date, GBP may also rise, but by a lesser amount – since kicking the can down the road is not a solution.
  • In this scenario we would expect EUR/GBP to be trading in the 0.90 area on a 1 to 3 month horizon.
If a no deal Brexit is ruled out will would expect EUR/GBP to clamber back towards the 0.86 area in 3 months. 
If fresh legislation is not passed and the UK remains on course for a no deal Brexit in October we would expect EUR/GBP to rise firstly back towards the recent high in the 0.9325 area. 
How high EUR/GBP can go may then depend on whether the EU summit in mid-October brings any compromises.” “On a no deal Brexit on October 31, we expect EUR/GBP to rise towards parity.

Bundesbank sees risk of the German economy entering a recession

  
Analysis, Economy
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Comments by Bundesbank via its monthly report

Germany
  • Euro area economy growing at a subdued pace in Q3
  • Sees first signs of downturn in the labour market
  • German economic outlook remains unclear, hinges on exports
  • Economic activity could shrink over the summer (Q3) due to weak industrial activity
  • It is unclear if exports will regain their footing before the domestic economy becomes more severely affected
Given the way things are going, another economic contraction wouldn’t be surprising.
As mentioned over the last few weeks, the dichotomy of Germany’s economy (manufacturing and services performance) will eventually settle on one path and the likelihood of negative spillovers from the manufacturing to services sector grows with each passing day.
Thursday’s PMI data may give us a glimpse of that but lawmakers and policymakers will be certainly be hoping that the services sector will continue to bolster the economy through these tough times.

Wall Street drops on earnings as euro swings on ECB rhetoric

  
Analysis, US Market
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The S&P 500 retreated from a record high on Thursday as adverse reactions to a handful of corporate results weighed on the market and as the latest assessment of monetary policy rhetoric from the European Central Bank triggered a volatile session for the euro.

The US equities benchmark was down 0.5 per cent owing to poorly-received results from a number of technology and industrial companies.

American Airlines shed 8.4 per cent after saying it expected a larger hit to pre-tax earningsfrom the grounding of Boeing’s 737 Max jets. Southwest Airlines said it expected cost pressures from the grounding to weigh on results in the second half and decided it would cease operations out of Newark Liberty International airport, which helps serve the New York City area, although its shares managed to reverse early declines to finish roughly flat.

Rivals Delta Air Lines and United Airlines were both lower. Boeing remained under pressure, down nearly 4 per cent, after flagging on Wednesday it might have to cease production of the jet that was involved in two fatal crashes earlier this year.

Facebook and Tesla were down 2 per cent and nearly 14 per cent, respectively, after reporting results following Wednesday’s closing bell.

The leg down in US equities also came as investors digested better than expected US economic data that raised concerns that Federal Reserve policymakers may not be as dovish as markets expect at next week’s investor meeting.

There was much interest in the ECB, though. As President Mario Draghi gave his regular press conference after leaving interest rates on hold, investors measured his words against hopes for a return to economic stimulus in the region, which had pointed to more bond-buying as soon as September.

It sent the euro on a volatile run, and a rally for the region’s government bonds also faded, drawing yields higher as the trading day developed. Stocks also dropped back from highs, although banking shares remained in demand.

The shared currency bounced up off two-year lows after Mr Draghi spoke to reporters, and was about flat at $1.1144.

European stocks were also unsettled, with the extent of the ECB’s concern at an economic slowdown outweighing the hopes for fresh stimulus. Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax stood out, falling back by 1.3 per cent, surrendering earlier gains that took it up as much as 0.6 per cent for the session.

Euro Last Support or Hope :136

  
Analysis, Education, Forex
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EURO -WEEKLY CHART

Last week ,The epicenter of many of  questions seems to be southern Europe, where Greece, Portugal, Spain and to a lesser extent the remainder of the so-called PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) have flamed investor concerns that burgeoning public debt may significantly weaken investor demand for sovereign debt and exacerbate an already trouble budgetary crisis.

Many investors have taken to selling the euro is as a means by which to reduce exposure to these problem areas and/or speculate on one or more of these crises spiraling out of control.

-Just look at above chart :Weekly chart includes a powerful rally of Year 2009 and more recently and two-stage selloff, starting in the first half of December and picking up steam over the course of the past 3 ½ weeks as traders looked to capitalize on weakness stemming from the problems in Greece, Portugal and Spain.

ALERT25

Just watch 136 level.Three consecutive close below this level+ Weekly close will take to 131.70-130 level.

-If not breaks 136 & trades above 138 level will create buying upto 140-141 level.

-Best Strategy :Sell on Rise.

-Will update more very soon.

Updated at 13:10/8th Feb/Baroda

Strong Rupee-Any impact ?

  
Analysis, Education, Forex
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https://www.anirudhsethireport.com/inr-looking-strong-against-usd-jpy-gbp/

https://www.anirudhsethireport.com/what-i-forecasted-for-usd-inr-dont-miss-to-read/

 

Dear Traders /Readers ,Just click above links and u will see from what level Iam Bullish in Indian Rupee.

While looking at chart of INR against GBP ,EURO ,USD and JPY -Just thought came in my mind and thinking what will be the impact on Indian Software Companies or any negative impact on results for this quarter ?

-Indian Rupee had appreciated by 9% since Dec’09 against British Pound

-Indian Rupee had appreciated by 9% against Euro

-Indian Rupee had appreciated by 3% against USD since Dec’09

-US Dollar is strong against all world currencies except India

-I Don’t understand when  USD ,GBP ,EURO  were strong against INR…Then results of Indian Software companies were mind blowing and stocks were zooming up up up.

-Now since INR is so strong against all 3 currencies then also no impact on stock price and nobody talking and writing ??

-Apart from Software Companies ,What will be the impact on the companies those exporting in Europe ,UK ,USA ?

Just think it over and if possible comment

Updated at 12:49/28th March/Baroda

European manufacturing PMI at 29-month high (Full Detail )

  
Analysis, Education
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Eurozone-wide manufacturing data for November has met forecasts, reaching their best level since June 2011 as national-level numbers from the sector also beat expectations.

The Markit purchasing managers’ index survey for the shared currency area came in at 51.6, just ahead of the 51.5 predicted in a poll undertaken by Reuters.

Any reading above 50 indicates growth.

Markit said:

The recovery in the eurozone manufacturing sector accelerated again in November. Although the pace of expansion remained modest overall, the real positives were that growth extended into a fifth successive month with the rate of increase hitting a near two-and-half year high.

At national level:

  • Italy’s PMI reading for the month was 51.4, better than the 50.9 forecast
  • Germany’s index came in at 52.7, narrowly ahead of expectations of 52.5

  • France’s manufacturing sector continued to shrink, but by less than expected, with its PMI reading 48.4 against expectations of 47.8

The Dollar Surge is a Sign of Emerging Market Troubles.

  
  Education
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A strong dollar doesn’t worry me, but a dollar that is THIS strong is a sign that something worrisome could be going on. Historically, substantial year over year increases in the dollar have been consistent with a flight to safety. With the recent European and Emerging Market turmoil we’re seeing huge demand for dollars as a good deal of foreign debt is dollar denominated.  The current surge in the dollar is a sign that there’s a flight to safety occurring and more turmoil in the financial markets than many might presume.

bear3

Alpha & Beta: Two Competing Investment Philosophies

  
  Education
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“Where’s the Dow going to be in a year?”

That’s often asked of financial TV guests. From their responses, you’ll detect two distinct investment philosophies emerge. Which answer resonates with you most strongly probably determines the sort of investor you are. It also affects the odds of how well your portfolio is likely to do.

Imagine it is a random Wednesday, and despite my past warnings about noise, you have a television tuned to a financial news station. That very question is posed to two television guests; let’s call them “Alpha” and “Beta.” Their answers — which are quite different — reflect their competing investment schools of thought.

Guest Alpha’s response is very specific. Yet it incorporates so many factors, it’s hard to keep up with. Rather than fill this in with the news of the moment — Fed raising rates! China devaluation! Greek bailouts! Gold collapse! — I have left the details blank so this remains “evergreen.” This not only shows how many variables are involved, but it avoids the emotional response you may have to any of these specific issues.

So Alpha is asked where the Dow will be in a year, and he responds:

“Our view is that the economy in the U.S. continues to _______, and we foresee _______ problems overseas ______. China is _______, and that has ramifications for the Pacific Rim’s ______. Greece is ______ in Europe. The commodity complex is causing _____ for emerging markets. But many sectors of the U.S. economy remain _______, and some sectors overseas are still _______. The valuation issue continues to be _____, and that means _____ for investors. That has ramifications for corporate profits that will be ______. We think the economy is going to do ______, and you know that means inflation will be _____, which will force interest rates to ______. Under these conditions, the sectors most likely to benefit from this are ______, ______ and ______. The companies best positioned to take advantage of this are ____, ____ and ____. Based on all that, we especially recommend an overweight allocation to ____, ____ and ____. Thus, we believe the Dow will be at ______ next year.”

You can turn on FinTV any day of the week and hear some variation of that discussion. (more…)

Euro surpasses US dollar as the currency of online casinos

  
Analysis, Education
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At the dawn of the online gambling industry in the 1990s, the U.S. dollar was the major currency accepted in online casinos, but those days are over. The euro has replaced USD and is now the most popular currency. According to the latest research by KeyToCasino, the euro is currently accepted in 79% of all existing online casinos. 

The use of the U.S. dollar changed after the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA), legislation regulating online gambling, was passed in the United States. The UIGEA has prohibited all gambling sites from accepting deposits online, forcing U.S.-oriented casinos out of business. At the same time, online gaming business in Europe has flourished, and many online casinos re-oriented their business towards European customers.

It has been 10 years since UIGEA, and many new online casinos have opened throughout this period. They have never considered targeting the U.S. market and never planned to include USD as a currency that is available for deposits. Players from countries with economically unstable currencies were forced to use the euro for their casino transactions.

American currency is not completely out of the gaming business however. It remains the second most popular currency in online casinos, followed by the British pound, which is accepted in 58% of online casinos. However, the overall popularity of Scandinavian currencies, which include the Norwegian krone, Swedish krona, and Danish krone, beats the pound because Norway, Sweden, and Denmark have the highest population ratio when it comes to casino popularity.

Among the other currencies that have become prevalent on online gaming market, there are the South African rand, South Korean won, and Russian ruble. The least popular are the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan. The Australian dollar beats the Canadian dollar in popularity because unlike in Australia, the legality of online casinos in Canada is uncertain, which results in the Canadian dollar not being widely accepted at online casinos.

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