Archives of “decision making process” tag

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Trading Intuition

  
  Education
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I’ve heard from many traders that they often take decisions based on instincts. Actually, all non-quants use intuition in some form or another. If you are not using a program that takes all signals that your system produces, how do you decide between several equally good looking trading setups with similar risk to reward? Do you take them all or do you concentrate on only a few? The odds are that you are doing the latter and your ultimate choice for capital allocation is subconscious.

Even though we are defined by our decisions, we are often completely unaware of what’s happening inside our heads during the decision-making process.
Feelings are often an accurate shortcut, a concise expression of decades’ worth of experience.
The process of thinking requires feeling, for feelings are what let us understand all the information that we can’t directly comprehend. Reason without emotion is impotent. (more…)

Trading Opportunities Through Analyzing Baseball

  
  Education
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If you got Pennington to find any valuable info when you asked him to develop quantitative analogies between forest life cycles and those of corporations to find some profitable trades you could certainly do the same in finding some numerical formula that could identify trade opportunities by analyzing baseball.

Each team– a stock, the aggregate teams– the market, each player– a corporate division, each salary– an investment made in the division and the company, each relevant performance statistic– a relevant performance statistic. Identify the right decision mix that makes teams perform better over time and improve over time and analyze similarities in companies doing the same.

The greatest liability is  also the greatest asset– human decision and performance permeate the game of baseball from start to finish and one could question whether it’s possible to find a truly consistent system as a result. I would argue that this complexity makes it a perfect analogy to market/company performance. It moves based on imbedded and sometimes unexplainable intellect and experience of its participants. The chaotic human decision making process is pervasive in both.

Trading Decision-Making Process

  
  Education
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There is a huge difference between a wish and a decision. A wish is a negative and puts the trader in a frozen state waiting for something to happen (generally associated with trying to get even on losing trades). That is negatively charged energy. Decisions, on the other hand, are positively charged energy. It makes the trader take action. Taking action is taking responsibility. You alone are responsible for your current mental state or condition. Decisions can be both good and bad of course. The sooner the trader realized the bad decision, the sooner they can act to correct it.

The first step in the decision-making process is to realize that what you are doing is not working. Remember that falling down is a positive motions is you bounce right back. Make a list of the positive and negative things that will happen when you take action on the decision.

Don’t expect instant gratification if you make the decision. Decision-making is a process that begins with the first step but these steps are the foundation for a stronger behavioral structure. This structure will give you the confidence in your trading. Confidence plays a key role in successful trading. Having the confidence necessary for successful trading can help the trader in difficult trading environments. Whereas one trader lacking confidence and good decision-making skills may be frozen and unable to act, the trader who has taken the time to build this foundation will be prepared to take the appropriate actions.

Many times specific decisions a trader makes will not yield profits, they will result in a loss, but more importantly, it will position the trader to be able to recognize and act on the next opportunity. Practicing and applying this process will pay dividends throughout your lifetime.

Be Responsible

  
  Education
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Be responsible for your own trading destiny. Analyze your trading behavior. Understand your own motivations. Traders come into commodity trading with a view to making money. After awhile they find the trading process to be fascinating, entertaining and intellectually challenging. Pretty soon the motivation to make money becomes subordinated to the desire to have fun and meet the challenge. The more you trade to have fun and massage your ego, the more likely you are to lose. The kinds of trading behaviors that are the most entertaining are also the least effective. The more you can emphasize making money over having a good time, the more likely it is you will be successful.

Be wary of depending on others for your success. Most of the people you are likely to trust are probably not effective traders. For instance: brokers, gurus, advisors, system vendors, friends. There are exceptions, but not many. Depend on others only for clerical help or to support your own decision-making process.

Don’t blame others for your failures. This is an easy trap to fall into. No matter what happens, you put yourself into the situation. Therefore, you are responsible for the ultimate result. Until you accept responsibility for everything, you will not be able to change your incorrect behaviors.

Trading Decision

  
  Education
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There is a huge difference between a wish and a decision. A wish is a negative and puts the trader in a frozen state waiting for something to happen (generally associated with trying to get even on losing trades). That is negatively charged energy. Decisions, on the other hand, are positively charged energy. It makes the trader take action. Taking action is taking responsibility. You alone are responsible for your current mental state or condition. Decisions can be both good and bad of course. The sooner the trader realized the bad decision, the sooner they can act to correct it.

The first step in the decision-making process is to realize that what you are doing is not working. Remember that falling down is a positive motions is you bounce right back. Make a list of the positive and negative things that will happen when you take action on the decision.

Don’t expect instant gratification if you make the decision. Decision-making is a process that begins with the first step but these steps are the foundation for a stronger behavioral structure. This structure will give you the confidence in your trading. Confidence plays a key role in successful trading. Having the confidence necessary for successful trading can help the trader in difficult trading environments. Whereas one trader lacking confidence and good decision-making skills may be frozen and unable to act, the trader who has taken the time to build this foundation will be prepared to take the appropriate actions.

Ego & Nervous Traders

  
  Education
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There are a whole host of characters who regularly lose money in the market place, and most fall into two catogories:

False Ego Traders

& Nervous Traders The false ego mistakes come from a mixture of false pride and bravado and are the most dangerous mistakes to make. The trader, generally a beginner or intermediate — call him Tader A — gets an opinion in his head about market direction. His analysis may have even been sound, but his opinion keeps him from reading/seeing the signs that a change is occuring in the market he has targeted. He subconsciously see the changes, but false pride is the devil, and blocks the information from making it into his conscious decision making process. The change he needs to see may even be pointed out to him by a fellow trader –Trader B– but Trader A’s false ego blocks this because he knows “I’m smarter than Trader B…In fact I think its a good idea to fade Trader B”.

Trader A is also likely someone who is accustomed to being listened to. He may have been upper management in a company, or even owned the company. “People better listen to me” is how he sees it. He is likely more accustomed to talking rather then listening.

Despite trader A’s previous success’ Mother Market will bring him down quickly. Any early success he has in the market will only make for bigger losses down the road as he gets caught in the spiral of trying to make up for lost money and still make money. He doesn’t just want to get his money back, he wants that and then some. His time is valuable. He is going to make the market pay.

Well we all know how that works out, which is to say we won’t be seeing Trader A around for long. (more…)

Desire

  
  Education
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DesireThis post is about one of the most important, but often overlooked rule, having huge philological impact on trader’s course of actions and decision making process.

Never confuse “Making money for the sake of fulfilling material desires” with “Making money as having profit on a trade”.

We do trade for achieving material independence, when we place the trade we need to think PROFIT, NOT “I need to make Rs 5 lac to buy new car”. Setting material goal as a trade objective is dangerous, it clouds our judgment, messing up initial trade setup and timing and interfere with “close position” decision. What if we are not going to make Rs 5 lac on a trade or “within a month”? Are we going to hold position forever if we only making Rs 2 lac? Are we going to quadruple the size of position to achieve “Rs 5 lac objective” sooner? Remember “counting turkeys” story? Are we going to trade even if market is bad and timing is wrong? I doubt that many of us will answer “yes” to any of these questions.

So here comes the rule:
Trade for profit – you’ll decide how to spend it AFTER you’ll make it.

INQUISITIVENESS & COMPREHENSION for Traders

  
  Education
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INQUISITIVENESS:  Just another word for curiosity and is the ever-present desire for information and understanding.  Unfortunately this characteristic can easily turn into  analysis paralysis, wherein the sheer quantity of information overwhelms the decision making process itself.  The solution is to remain focused on a very small segment of the market and is at the very heart of successful trading. There is just too much information out there to ever be able to make sense of it all.  Instead, the idea should be to direct your energy toward your trading methodology and not stray when tempted to.

  COMPREHENSION: This is the trader’s ability to attend to the smallest details of his or her trading plan.  I believe a trader must have rules for entering and exiting a trade before the trade is made.  In the beginning these rules can be in the form of a checklist wherein before each trade all the details of your rules are checked and verified.  With time, the rules become such as a part of your psyche that the checklist is in your head and can be confirmed with quick precision.  The key is to never change the rules. When the rules stay the same your mind will not be able to play tricks on you.

Confidence

  
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When you feel confident, presuming you do sometimes feel confident, where do you feel it? Can you feel it in your brain or is it in your thorax (i.e. middle part of your body)? Better yet, why do I ask?

Well if you think about it, part of our mission here at Trader Psyches is to teach traders of all stripes how to use the message in Gladwell’s blink to assist in the d/m (that is decision making) process. The zillion copies it has sold prove the interest in it but the practical parts about what I read – sort of the “just do it” related to using your instantaneous impressions seem frankly impossible.

And I honestly still feel that most traders are for good reason, stuck in their heads. So, I ask this simple question – when you feel confident where does it hurt?

5 Keys to Dealing with Trading Fear

  
  Education
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How comfortable are you dealing with uncertainty?

As volatility and uncertainty increases, so does fear. When our emotions run high, then our decision making process suffers.

It seems like the harder we try, the worse things get.

We start reacting to things instead of being proactive. Then we feel overwhelmed.

Does this sound familiar?

One of the hardest things to deal with is uncertainly.

We have strategies for managing our risk in most aspects of our trading. However, we seldom talk about or have strategies for the most crucial element, our Personal Risk.

 

Have you noticed the panic that is going on in the markets? Do you know people who have been a contributor to it? Do you know them intimately?

How do you manage your Personal Risk? 

1. Trade With a Clear Mind

Do not make emotional decisions. Realize that emotions are emotions. What differentiates the successful traders from others is how we recalibrate our reactions to our emotions.

 

I was watching an interview with a surfer. The interviewer asked him what he does when a big surf comes and he goes underwater. The surfer said it was simple. “If I panic, I only have 3-5 seconds of air to breathe. If I stay calm, I have 45-60 seconds of air.“

What does surfing have to do with trading? If you panic and operate from a place of fear, you could lose all of your capital. However, if you take a moment and think about your strategies, you can have much better results.

2. Look at Your Portfolio Objectively

Think about your portfolio as if you are looking at the portfolio of your best friend. How would you advise him/her?

3. Limit Your Input

There are a lot of conflicting points of view. If we want to listen to all of them, it becomes very confusing, and the confused mind does not make a decision.

Instead of listening to everybody, pick the top 3 people that you respect and listen to them. This way, you can remain focused and have much better trading results.

4. Be In Tune With the Markets

Trade the markets as they are and not as you want them to be.

If we are not in tune with the markets and don’t listen to them, we are going to be in a losing game.

After all, hope is a lousy hedge.

5. Be In a Supportive Environment

It is important to listen to the people that we respect and are successful.

 

There are traders whose spouse and/or friends have little or no risk tolerance. As a result, these traders allow the fear of their spouse and/or friends to become the boundaries of their success.

Who are you choosing to surround yourself with?

Remember, not the most talented or skilled person wins the game. The game is won by the ones who can manage their Personal Risk and have a Mental Edge.

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