- Don’t follow the crowd.
- Have an exit strategy before the bubbles burst
- Focus on the debt markets for predicting the future.
- Take the time to figure out how fancy new investment products like credit default swaps (CDS) work.
- Buy insurance. No one wanted out of the money puts on the housing market.
- Remember the past. Some of the big winners in the housing crash were those dismissed as out-of-touch dinosaurs.
- Remember that no trade lasts forever so don’t fall in love with your investment. After making his $20 billion. Paulson went long banks at the bottom. (The verdict is still out on this trade).
- Timing is everything and luck helps.
Archives of “crowd” tag
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THE COLLECTIVE MADNESS OF CROWDS
All I can say about the following is WOW, talk about THE perfect explanation for the reason behind unreasonable and illogical crowded moves in the stock market…
The most striking peculiarity presented by a psychological crowd is the following: Whoever be the individuals that compose it, however like or unlike be their mode of life, their occupations, their character, or their intelligence,the fact that they have been transformed into a crowd puts them in possession of a sort of collective mind which makes them feel, think, and act in a manner quite different from that in which each individual of them would feel, think,and act were he in a state of isolation. There are certain ideas and feelings which do not come into being, or do not transform themselves into acts except in the case of individuals forming a crowd. The psychological crowd is a provisional being formed of heterogeneous elements, which for a moment are combined, exactly as the cells which constitute a living body form by their reunion a new being which displays characteristics very different from those possessed by each of the cells singly.
…and it was written by a psychologist in 1896!
15 Points for Trading System & Money Management
1. Capital comes in two varieties: Mental and that which is in your pocket or account.
Of the two types of capital, the mental is the more important and expensive of the two. Holding to losing positions costs measurable sums of actual capital, but it costs immeasurable sums of mental capital.
2. “Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent”, according to our good friend, Dr. A. Gary Shilling.
Illogic often reigns and markets are enormously inefficient despite what the academics believe.
3. An understanding of mass psychology is often more important than an understanding of economics.
Markets are driven by human beings making human errors and also making super-human insights.
4. The market is the sum total of the wisdom … and the ignorance…of all of those who deal in it; and we dare not argue with the market’s wisdom.
If we learn nothing more than this we’ve learned much indeed.
5. The hard trade is the right trade: If it is easy to sell, don’t; and if it is easy to buy, don’t.
Do the trade that is hard to do and that which the crowd finds objectionable.
Peter Steidelmeyer taught us this twenty five years ago and it holds truer now than then.
6. There is never one cockroach: Bad news begets bad news, which begets even worse news. (more…)
The Five Investing Essential Truths
Markets are notoriously hard to read and people see only what they themselves want to see.
Bulls will find reasons why certain stocks will go higher, while at the same time, Bears will find many reasons for the same stocks to go lower.
The seldom-admitted truth is that most of the time, markets exist in some indeterminate state!
The main thing is that you cannot trust consensus and you cannot rely on the “Establishment.”
You can’t find refuge in the herd and you must resist the urge to join the crowd.
Your passion of the moment will most certainly create a disaster over the years!
On the other hand, if you do stick with the following five essential truths, you do stand a better than average chance to invest profitably:
1. Markets are unpredictable and ill-suited to forecasts.
2. Long-term fundamentals are key.
3. Investor emotion leads to volatility.
4. Valuation discipline should guide investment selection.
5. Perspective and patience are always well rewarded.
Successful Traders
“Successful traders constantly ask themselves: What am I doing right? What am I doing wrong? How can I do what I am doing better? How can I get more information? Courage is a quality important to excel as a trader. It’s not enough to simply have the insight to see something apart from the rest of the crowd, you also need to have the courage to act on it and stay with it.”
Fear & Greed
Most of us make the same mistake with our money over and over again: We buy high out of greed and sell low out of fear, despite knowing on an intellectual level that it is a very bad idea.
Think about this pattern for a minute. At the top of the market we can’t buy fast enough. About three years later at the bottom, we can’t sell fast enough. And we repeat that over and over until we’re broke. No wonder most people are unsatisfied with their investing experience.
No one is sure how this will turn out. But with interest rates again near record lows (meaning bond prices are near record highs), you could end up losing money in that bond fund you bought for the purpose of making sure you don’t lose money.
It makes far more sense to ignore what the crowd is doing and base your investment decisions on what you need to reach your goals, then stick with the plan despite the fear or greed you may feel. To do otherwise would be following a pattern that has proven to be extraordinarily painful.
The Crowd Speaks Technical Analysis
Nice write-up
on the benefits of adding some technical analysis to a rational, fundamental worldview by Anthony Bolton, the recently retired manager of the top-performing Fidelity Special Situations fund. A few excerpts (emphasis mine):
My contention is that if you are trying to predict the mass action of thousands of investors, most of whom are investing on a rational or logical basis, you won’t be able to do this by taking the same logical approach as everyone else. (more…)
The 10 Commandments
1. Thou shall not go against the trend.
If it be down, let it be down. The market is bigger and stronger than you.
Follow the market but be one step ahead of the crowd.
2. Thou shall not follow the herd instinct
Just because many people are buying a certain stock does not mean you should follow suit. If people want to buy rubbish stocks, that is their bad luck. Don’t make it yours.
3. Thou shall treat the market as a business, not a casino
The stock market is not meant to be a casino and you should not be there to gamble.
4.Thou shall not buy high-debted and no-earnings stocks
All companies that folded are highly geared with negative earnings. Don’t buy rubbish shares; don’t buy somebody’s liabilities.
5. Thou shall only buy solvent companies with good-growth prospects
Present earnings are important, but future earnings are more important. That’s why we have companies selling at high PER (Price earnings ratios).
6. Thou shall not be overconfident
Overconfidence leads to overtrading. Once you overtrade, you may not be able to control your own emotion. Fear may set in when the market is not going the way you expect it. It may disrupt your plan, turning your profitable trade into a loss.
7. Thou shall invest within the comfort zone
Don’t be too greedy; don’t play with borrowed money. Debt is a disease. It can cause you a lot of problem if you are not careful.
8. Thou shall be patient
The market is designed to transfer money from the impatient to the patient. You must have very good reasons before you switch counters. Very often, the shares you sell move up faster than the shares you buy.
9. Thou shall be disciplined
Don’t change your strategy at the eleventh hour. If you have placed a stop-loss in your chart, don’t remove it unless it is replaced with a trailing stop-loss.
10. Thou shall be knowledgable
Investment in knowledge pays the best dividend. No one is so skillful that he cannot better his best. Keep learning for knowledge is boundless
Three of Buffett’s rules
- Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1.
If you lose money on an investment, it will take a much greater return to just break even, let alone make additional money. Minimize your losses by finding quality companies that are temporarily selling at discounted prices. Then follow good capital management principles and maintain your trailing stops. Also, sitting on a losing trade uses up time, money and mental capital. If you find yourself in this situation, it is time to move on. - The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient.
The best returns come from those who wait for the best opportunity to show itself before making a commitment. Those who chase the current hot stock usually end up losing more than they gain. Remain active in your analysis, look for quality companies at discounted prices and be patient waiting for them to reach their discounted price before buying. - The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.
You need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd or against it. Independent thinking and having confidence in what you believe is much more important than being the smartest person in the market. Most of the time, the best opportunities are found when everyone else has given up on the stock market. Over-confidence and emotion are the enemies of a high quality portfolio.
Rubber Band
“Some of the best trades come when everyone gets very panicky. The crowd can often act very stupidly in the markets. You can picture price fluctuations around an equilibrium level as a rubber band being stretched – if it gets pulled too far, eventually it will snap back. As a short-term trader, I try to wait until the rubber band is stretched to its extreme point.”