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CFTC commitment of traders: EUR longs increase to 200K (all time largest long position).

  
Analysis, Forex
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Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC

  • EUR long 200K vs 180K long last week. Longs increased by 20K
  • GBP short 3K vs 15K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 12K
  • JPY long 27K vs 31K long last week. Longs trimmed by 4K
  • CHF long 17K vs 12K long last week. Longs increase by 5K
  • AUD short 1K vs 1K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K
  • NZD 0K vs 1K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • CAD short 30k vs 23K short last week. Shorts increased by 6K

Highlights:

  • EUR longs continue to rise and are at new record long position at 200K. The largest short position all time is at -227K
  • GBP position has been whittled down to near unchanged after being short by 36K at the beginning of June 2020
  • AUD and NZD speculative positions are near unchanged
  • CAD shorts are the more or less, the only short currency position (long USD position).
Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC

CFTC commitments of traders: EUR longs spike by 32K to a record long level

  
Analysis, Forex
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Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC

 

  • EUR long 157K vs 125K long last week. Longs increased by 32K
  • GBP short 25K vs 15K short last week. Shorts increased by 10K
  • JPY long 29K vs 19K long last week. Longs increased by 10K
  • CHF long 8K vs 7K long last week. Longs increase by 1K
  • AUD short 5K vs 0K long last week. Shorts increased by 5K
  • NZD short 1K vs 2K last week. NZD switches from long to short. 3K change
  • CAD short 13k vs 17K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K
Highlights:
The BIG HIGHLIGHT for the week is in the EUR.  The EUR longs spiked up by 32K to 157K in the current week to a record high for long positions. The move higher is corresponding to higher EURUSD prices. The price of the EURUSD has been up for 6 consecutive weeks.  The long position started to move more to the upside during the May 19 week when the position was at 72K.  The EURUSD during that week was down at 1.0800. The price high today reached to 1.1908 before backing off.  Nice trade for the longs.
Of course, a concern for markets that get too long or short, is that there can be a squeeze the other way if prices start to lose trend momentum.   As a result, be careful of too much of a good thing, but let the technicals tell the story. They have been bullish.
Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC_
The GBP shorts, however, increased by 10K to 25K (still much lower than the EUR longs) while the currency has moved higher.
The JPY longs increased and the USDJPY moved down (higher JPY) into early trading today. However, the price snapped back higher and nearly erased the full move lower this week in a single day.

CFTC Commitments of Traders: Euro shorts continue to build

  
Analysis, Forex
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Weekly FX futures positioning data from the CFTC for the week ending Feb 11, 2020:

  • EUR short 86K vs 75K short last week. Shorts increased by 11K
  • GBP long 21K vs 13K long last week. Longs increased by 8K
  • JPY short 26K vs 21K short last week. Shorts increased by 5k
  • CHF long 4K vs 5K long last week. Longs decreased by 1K
  • AUD short 33k vs 43K short last week. Shorts decreased by 10K
  • NZD short 4K vs 2K short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
  • CAD long 10k vs 19K long last week. Longs decreased by 9K

CFTC commitments of traders: EUR shorts increase.

  
Analysis, Forex
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Weekly FX futures positioning data from the CFTC

  • EUR short 59K vs 47K short last week. Shorts increased by 12K
  • GBP long 18K vs 25K long last week. Longs decreased by 7K
  • JPY short 36K vs 45K short last week. Shorts increased by 9k
  • CHF loan 3.5K vs 1.5 long last week. Longs increased by 2K
  • AUD short 27k vs 19K short last week. Shorts increased by 8K
  • NZD long 2K vs 1.8K longlast week. Longs increased by 0.2K
  • CAD long 35k vs 38K long last week. Longs decreased by 3K

Highlights:

  • EUR shorts had the biggest change in week (increase of 12K to the short side).
  • The EUR short 59K is the largest speculative position
  • JPY shorts trimmed. I have to think that there might be more liquidation over the last few days on the back of the coronavirus.
Below is the history of the EUR. It has been negative since the 1st week of October 2018.
Weekly FX futures positioning data from the CFTC_

CFTC Commitments of traders: JPY shorts increase to largest level since early December

  
Analysis, Forex
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Weekly FX futures positioning data from the CFTC

  • EUR short 47K vs 48K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • GBP long 25K vs 31K long last week. Longs increased by 6K
  • JPY short 45K vs 31K short last week. Shorts increased by 14k
  • CHF 1.5K vs flat last week. Longs increased by 1.5K
  • AUD short 19k vs 20K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • NZD long 1.8K vs square last week. Longs increased by 1.8K
  • CAD long 38k vs 33K long last week. Longs increased by 5K

Weekly FX futures positioning data from the CFTC

Net US dollar long futures bets are the narrowest since June 2018

  
Analysis, Forex
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CFTC positioning shows bets on the dollar have dropped

The Federal Reserves mid-cycle adjustment has chased out US dollar longs.
The week ahead will be an interesting one because the CFTC data is from Tuesday’s close. That was before Powell had the chance to commit to keep rates here or lower for a long time:
“I think we would need to see a really significant move up in inflation that’s persistent before we would even consider raising rates to address inflation concerns.”
The USD yield differential is still in place but it’s not as compelling as it once was, especially with the election now just a year away and all the related uncertainty.
Here’s the chart showing the drop in net USD longs, from Bloomberg:
US banknote art

Is this really the end of the long-term dollar bull market? You would have to believe that better global growth is coming in 2020. But with the trade war on hiatus and a potential positive finish to Brexit, is that so unthinkable?

CFTC Commitments of Traders: Pound shorts haven’t been squeezed…yet

  
Analysis, Forex
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Forex futures positioning data from the CFTC for the week ending October 15, 2019:

Forex futures positioning data from the CFTC for the week ending October 15, 2019:
  • EUR short 75K vs 75K short last week. Unchanged
  • GBP short 73K vs 73K short last week. Unchanged
  • JPY short 7K vs 11K long last week. Longs switch to shorts in an 18K drop
  • CHF short 13k vs 11k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • AUD short 48k vs 46k short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
  • NZD short 40K vs 38K short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
  • CAD long 13K vs 5K long last week.  Longs trimmed by 1K
  • Prior week

The big moves in sterling came last week and I’m surprised there wasn’t any covering through Tuesday. That’s good news if you’re long GBP because it leaves lots of juice to squeeze.

CFTC commitments of traders: The largest position remains GBP shorts

  
Analysis, Forex
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Forex futures positioning data for the week ending September 24, 2019 from the CFTC  should

  • EUR short 66K vs 61K short last week. Shorts increased by 5K
  • GBP short 77K vs 81K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K
  • JPY long 14K vs 13K long last week. Longs trimmed by 1kK
  • CHF short 12k vs 11k short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
  • AUD short 52k vs 47k short last week. Shorts increased by 5K
  • NZD short 42K vs 45K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 3K
  • CAD long 6K vs 5K long last week.  Longs increased by 1K
  • prior week

Modest changes in the major currencies for the current week. Although speculators trimmed short positions in the pound, it remains the largest specular position. The EUR shorts increased by 5K. It is the 2nd largest short position.

The specular position in the JPY remains on the long side. The CAD is also a long position for traders.

CFTC Commitments of Traders: Canadian dollar buyers bail

  
Analysis, Forex
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Forex futures positioning data for the week ending September 24, 2019 from the CFTC:

Forex futures positioning data for the week ending September 24, 2019 from the CFTC:
  • EUR short 61K vs 69K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 8K
  • GBP short 81K vs 86K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 5K
  • JPY long 13K vs 24K long last week. Longs trimmed by 11K
  • CHF short 11k vs 5k short last week. Shorts increased by 6K
  • AUD short 47k vs 54k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 7K
  • NZD short 36K vs 30K short last week. Shorts increased by 6K
  • CAD long 5K vs 20K long last week.  Longs trimmed by 15K

There were some substantial moves across the board in this week’s data. There was no overarching theme in the US dollar. The loonie has stubbornly held onto longs but I suspect the jump in oil prices and lack of a corresponding climb in the loonie may have sent some specs to the sidelines — that data certainty hasn’t eroded.

A profile of natural gas trader John Arnold -Must read

  
Education, Life, US Market
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John Arnold

You could hear John Arnold trying to choose his words carefully. Seated at a conference table inside a drab government building in Washington, D.C., in August, Arnold hardly fit the stereotype of a swaggering, 35-year-old billionaire natural-gas trader.

He wrung his hands as he waited to speak and twisted his wedding band. He filled, and refilled, and re-refilled his water glass. Then he stuttered a bit before he gained momentum and politely advocated rules that would restrict others while allowing him to keep doing what he does.

It was a rare public appearance for one of the least-known billionaires in the U.S. But the stakes were high. Arnold was testifying at a hearing of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

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