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IEA cuts 2014 global oil demand forecast by 60k to 1.29mbpd

  
  Education
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  • Cuts 2014 forecast for non OPEC oil supply growth by 250k to 1.5mbpd
  • Lower Russian projections drive estimates lower
  • OPEC crude supply fell in March by 890k to 29.62mbpd on Iraq, Libya & Saudi
  • Says market balances indicate OPEC will need to raise output in second half of year
  • OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 6.5m in Feb to 2.567tn barrels

Brent crude has been looking slightly cheaper on the cut in demand forecast and the 108.30/50 level is still the level that needs to be broken for a push up. 

10 -Trend Following Commandments

  
  Education
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1.    You shall back test and develop quantify robust trend trading systems that are profitable over the long term.
2.    You shall identify and follow the long term trend in the markets you trade, and have no guru that you bow down to.
3.    You shall not try to predict the future, that is a fool’s game, but follow the current price trend.
4.    You shall remember the stop loss to keep your capital safe from destruction; you shall know your exit level before your entry is taken.
5.    Follow your trend following system all the days that you are trading, so that through discipline you will be profitable.
6.    You shall not give up on your trading system because of a draw down.
7.    You shall not change a winning system because it has had a few losing trades.
8.    You shall trade with the principles that have proven to work for successful traders. Manage risk, go with the trend, and diversify so your days in the market will be long.
9.    You shall keep the faith in your trend following system even in range bound markets; a trend will begin anew eventually.
10.    You shall not covet fundamentalist’s valuations, Blue channels talking heads, newsletter predictions, Holy Grails, or the false claims of any of the black box systems.

10+10+10 Trading Rules

  
  Education
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1.    Be flexible and go with the flow of the markets price action, stubbornness, egos, and emotions are the worst indicators for entries and exits.
2.    Understand that the trader only chooses their entries, exits, position size, and risk and the market chooses whether they are profitable or not.
3.    You must have a trading plan before you start to trade, that has to be your anchor in decision making.
4.    You have to let go of wanting to always be right about your trade and exchange it for wanting to make money. The first step of making money is to cut a loser short the   moment it is confirmed that you are wrong.
5.    Never trade position sizes so big that your emotions take over from your trading plan.
6.    “If it feels good, don’t do it.” – Richard Weissman
7.    Trade your biggest position sizes during winning streaks and your smallest position sizes during losing streaks. Not too big and trade your smallest when in a losing streak.
8.    Do not worry about losing money that can be made back worry about losing your trading discipline.
9.    A losing trade costs you money but letting a big losing trade get too far out of hand can cause you to lose your nerve. Cut losses for the sake o your nerves as much as for the sake of capital preservation.
10.    A trader can only go on to success after they have faith in themselves as a trader, their trading system  as a winner, and know that they will stay disciplined in their trading journey.

Bring your risk of ruin down to almost zero. (more…)

Free 34 page technical analysis book to download

  
  Education
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I cam across this yesterday and though it might be interesting for some weekend technical analysis reading. I haven’t read it yet.

Its from the Market Technicians Association, the August issue of “Technically Speaking”.

Free download etc. etc. The link is here.

Whats in it? …

Free technical analysis book 08 August 2014

ATMs To Generate Receipts In Hindi-Hindi Ke Achhe Din

  
Analysis, Education
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ATMs in Hindi-speaking states will now generate receipts in Hindi, along with English, as the Home Ministry has asked the Reserve Bank of India to direct banks to procure only those ATMs that can print receipts in Hindi. 

The ministry has also instructed two major foreign suppliers of ATMs to upgrade the software in the existing ATMs to ensure printouts in Hindi. 

The Department of Financial Services has written to the Home Ministry, saying the matter is under consideration. “We will be perusing this matter… the issue is that the printout of the receipt (from the ATM) should come in the language in which the transaction is being made,” a Home Ministry spokesperson said. 

At present, only ATMs procured by the Union Bank of India from Diebold firm have the facility to print in Hindi. 

(more…)

10 One Liner Rules for Traders

  
  Education
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Risk management- Plan your loss before planning your profit.
Diversification- Be bullish, be bearish, be involved in various groups/markets.
Proper Position Sizing- Trade small, trade safe.
Effective Trading Plan- Make sure your plan works, and/or makes money.
Cutting Losses Short- Enter a trade that offers a small loss.
Letting Winners Run- Don’t kill your winners.
Curbing Your Emotion- This is a bi product of trading small.

Recommendation: Give your account the same foundation so you can participate in the activity above.
Long: My rules
Short: My emotion

How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market by Nicolas Darvas

  
  Education
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Excerpt: “Hungarian by birth, Nicolas Darvas trained as an economist at the University of Budapest. Reluctant to remain in Hungary until either the Nazis or the Soviets took over, he fled at the age of 23 with a forged exit visa and fifty pounds sterling to stave off hunger in Istanbul, Turkey. During his off hours as a dancer, he read some 200 books on the market and the great speculators, spending as much as eight hours a day studying. Darvas invested his money into a couple of stocks that had been hitting their 52-week high. He was utterly surprised that the stocks continued to rise and subsequently sold them to make a large profit. His main source of stock selection was Barron’s Magazine. At the age of 39, after accumulating his fortune, Darvas documented his techniques in the book, How I Made 2,000,000 in the Stock Market. The book describes his unique “Box System”, which he used to buy and sell stocks. Darvas’ book remains a classic stock market text to this day.”

How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market by Nicolas Darvas
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Traders-Never Do These 5 Things

  
  Education
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There are things that we do as traders that set us back in our journey to success and lose us money. There are other things that traders do that just destroy themselves. Many of the following things are done daily by the 90% of traders that lose money in the market consistently. If we want to be a longer term winner trading the markets we have to take these lessons to heart and over come our natural instincts by doing the opposite.

  1. Instead of cutting a loss the trader holds it stressing over it for the rest of the day or a week. This destroys the trader’s mental capital and inflicts completely unnecessary emotional pain. The first loss it the best loss.
  2. A trader that trades their opinion instead of the price action has a lower success rate than someone who just trades price action. The vast majority of traders make money by following trends and chart patterns not their own opinion.
  3. A trader who puts on the one big trade that they think they just can’t lose on is usually the one that blows up their account. A trader must always have stops and must always manage risk regardless of their belief in any one trade.
  4. Believing that you are right about a trade and the market is wrong is a sure path to destruction. The market is always right because price is reality. How do we know when we are wrong? We lose money that is proof enough.
  5. A trader who endlessly searches for stock picks and predictions instead of  learning how to trade a robust method while managing their own mind and using risk management is doomed to failure.

The war against ‘insider trading 2.0’

  
Analysis, Education
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MUST READ

In India u can fight for Poverty or can try to stop Corruption…….But u can’t stop INSIDER TRADING-It’s our Challenge

Insider trading is a fluid concept. Until 1980, the practice was not illegal in the UK. Prior to then, tipping off favoured clients about market-sensitive company information was a stockbroker’s job description, rather than an illegal activity. Times have changed and so has the pace of financial markets.

In 2009, Samantha Bee, one of the cast members on The Daily Show, the satirical US television programme, said that “if I know about a stock’s activity the day before, it’s called insider trading. But if I know about a stock’s activity one second before, it’s called high-frequency trading.”

Now, however, Eric Schneiderman, the New York attorney-general, is waging war on what he calls “insider trading 2.0”. He is taking aim at the precise time sensitive information is delivered electronically.

Mr Schneiderman’s office is currently investigating the market data industry. In July, under pressure from Mr Schneiderman, Thomson Reuters suspended its practice of releasing consumer survey data from the University of Michigan (UoM) two seconds earlier to high-frequency trading clients who paid an additional fee. Clients paying for Thomson Reuters’ financial information terminals will continue to receive the data five minutes ahead of the general public, who have to make do with a press release. (more…)

10 Words For Traders-Must Read

  
  Education
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1. Call options. If you truly have conviction, buy long dated call options as volatility tend to be under priced for long maturities.

2. Short selling. It is harder to short sell than most think, and almost no one is good at it. One hurdle is the drift, but there are countless more.

3. Romance. You’re clearly better off to marry someone in management than to marry the stock.

4. Dip buying. The successful buys on dips and vice versa, it follows that the unsuccessful do the opposite.

5. Market. Everyone is always bearish on the market, only the super successful dares to be bullish/naive.

6. Story. Human brains are hard wired over thousands of years to build stories around your beliefs/thesis.

7. Flexibility. The super successful are always ready to change their mind/direction. Go from long to short or from short to long.

8. Art. Stock picking is as much art as science and very rarely are the smartest the best at this game.

9. Top-down. Local knowledge remains under appreciated. The top down guys ends up shorting the best companies and vice versa.

10. Management. Always invest with the best in class management, however you are better off with a good end market and bad management than the other way around.

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