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Anirudh Sethi's Lessons From 2008 : Part – II

  
  Education
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1)In panics there is almost nowhere to make money without taking excessive risk
2)Timing entries and exits to oversold & overbought conditions helps achieve low-risk/high-reward entries
3)There is no such thing as a safe investment
4)Markets are dysfunctional, corrupt, and have no oversight
5)To let a stock prove itself to me, prior to jumping in based on my analysis alone (more…)

Insider Trading in UTTAM GALVA STEEL ?

  
Analysis, Education, Investment
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UTTAMSTEEL

Today morning just read this NEWS :ArcelorMittal gets in through Uttam Galva

Uttam Galva, in a late evening notice to the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), announced that it will allow ArcelorMittal to acquire shares in the company through an open offer.
At the first stage, Lakhmi Mittal-owned ArcelorMittal will purchase a 5% stake for Rs69.6 crore at Rs120 a share.
Subsequently, the Mittals will make an open offer to purchase a 30% stake at the same price paid to the promoters for the 5% stake, valuing the company at Rs1,384.3 crore.
19session
 
This is Daily chart of UTTAM STEEL.
Just see the movement of the stock from Rs.53 on 11th August and on Friday it closed at 113.95 level.
My question to Readers ,Traders ,STOCK EXCHANGE and SEBI is ….The annoucement of stake sale or picking of stake by Arcelor Mittal was decided on Friday (4th September) or talks were going on since last 1-2 months ??
-Who were knowing about this Deal ?
-Who bought these shares ??
-Do u not think Insiders in India are minting money and people close to Company circle ??
-Just small thought ….if possible comment ………Jai Ho !!
Updated at 18:52/5th Sept/Baroda

Essentials of a Winning Psychology

  
  Education
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fear-1
Four fears that block a winning psychology:

  1. Fear of Loss
  2. Fear of being wrong
  3. Fear of missing out
  4. Fear of leaving money on the table.

Realize that trading is based on probabilities, as such, every trade is unique. In other words, the past does not equal the future.

Probability thinking manifest other states and beliefs:
  • Because we know that we will succeed in the long run and because we know we will protect ourselves no matter what the market does, we acquire the state of “self trust” and the state of being “carefree”.

In turn these states allow us to remain….

  • Focused, confident and carefree when we are experiencing the inevitable prolonged drawdown.
  • Because at the micro level we know that the market is random, we will not allow euphoria to set in and lead us to reckless trades. Each trade will only be one in a series of probabilities.
  • We will view market information not as a source of pleasure or pain but merely as data providing us with opportunities.

Personal Attributes Essential to a Winning Mentality
  • Awareness – the ability to step outside ourselves and observe. The more effectively we can do this, the easier our progress to “Acceptance”.
  • Honesty – the ability to seek to perceive reality in spite of our filters.
  • Courage – the willingness to bear the pain brought about by our awareness and honesty.
  • Commitment – the willingness to do whatever is necessary to achieve our goals

To succeed, a trader must have a vision about where he is heading, and must internalise that a winning attitude is total submission to the trading outcome.
This means managing Fear and Euphoria. To do this, we need to ACCEPT, with every fibre of our body, the belief that at the micro level the market is uncertain and unpredictable and at the macro level it is relatively certain and predictable.

Observation

  
  Education
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observation

I don’t think the alternatives are trading to not lose vs. imprudent boldness. Rather, the alternative is to trade or not to trade. One should trade when there is a demonstrable edge in one’s favor: then it’s trading to win. If one lacks that edge and (rightly) fears losing, the rational choice is to refrain from trading. The pallbearers enter the picture when there’s a need to trade that exceeds the limits of one’s demonstrable edge. Such “boldness” also manifests itself in improper sizing of trades and poor trade management. It has nothing to do with trading to win–and everything to do with the need for stimulation. Trading to not lose is certainly more effort than it’s worth and also expensive. Unlike the “bold” trader, the fearful trader exits positions prematurely, fails to enter trades with good edges, and undersizes positions.Most trading problems boil down to deficient self-control and resulting impulsivity. The impulse for excitement and the impulse to avoid harm are flip sides of the same coin–and not infrequently alternate within the same trader. Both take the trader away from the prudent trading to win.

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