Archives of “Articles” tag

rss

S&P and NASDAQ erase yesterday’s losses

  
Analysis, US Market
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

The last 4 of 5 days have been to the upside for the major indices

The major indices are closing with solid gains on the day.  The NASDAQ index closed at the highest level since February 21. Facebook and Amazon closed at record high levels.   The S&P index is closing higher but after trading above its 100 day moving average at 2975.37, the pair has rotated lower and will close below its 100 day moving average at 2971.61.  So that is a bit of a disappointment

The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P rose 48.67 points or 1.67% to 2971.61. The high reached 2980.29. The low extended to 2953.63.
  • The NASDAQ index rose by 190.67 points or 2.08% to 9375.77. The high price extended to 9392.816. The low price fell 29304.199
  • The Dow industrial average rose by 369.04 points or 1.52% to 24575.90. The high price extended to 24649.48. The low fell to 24455.94
some big gainers today included:
  • Twitter, +7.83%
  • Alcoa, +7.88%
  • Deutsche Bank, +6.23%
  • Facebook, +6.04%
  • Wynn Resorts +5.88%
  • Slack, plus a 5.7%
  • Southwest air, +5.27%
  • United Airlines, +5.24%
  • Disney, +4.86%
  • Intel, +4.69%
  • Morgan Stanley, +4.4%
losers today included:
  • Lockheed Martin, -2.46%
  • Northrop Grumman, -1.94%
  • Chewy, -1.62%
  • J&J, -0.9%
  • Merck and Company, -0.86%
  • United health, -0.42%
  • Verizon, -0.22%
  • Pfizer, -0.13%
  • Home Depot, -0.03%

US major indices snatch defeat from the jaws of victory

  
Analysis, US Market
#  #  #

Major indices move lower on the day after Moderna results questioned by the scientific community

The US stocks were trading near session highs heading into the last hour of trading
The S&P index was near 2964.21. The NASDAQ index was making new session highs at 9317.25. Then there was a report from STAT that questioned the results from the Moderna coronavirus test results.  Stocks moved lower, and the major indices snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
Suddenly there is a look or feel as good as it used to.
A final look at the numbers are showing:
  • S&P index -30.97 points or -1.05% at 2922.94
  • NASDAQ index -49.72 points or -0.54% at 9185.10
  • Dow -390.51 points or -1.59% at 24206.84.

Some losers today included:

  • Wells Fargo, -5.67%
  • FedEx -3.75%
  • Boeing -3.63%
  • Charles Schwab -3.57%
  • Gilead -3.28%
  • Procter & Gamble, -3.25%
  • Chevron -3.24%
  • Bank of America -3.14%
  • Exxon Mobil, -3.11%
  • PNC financial -2.88%
  • Citigroup, -2.7%
  • Home Depot, -2.61%
Some winners today included:
  • Beyond meat, +4.62%
  • square, +3.39%
  • Southwest Airlines, +2.29%
  • Slack, +2.28%
  • Facebook, +1.76%
  • AMD, +1.5 and present
  • Adobe, +1.22%
  • Chipotle, +1.09%
  • AliBaba, +0.94%
Walmart which traded as high as 131.99 1 better earnings and revenue before the opening, is closing down at 124.87. That is down -2.19%.

Fitch affirms France rating at ‘AA’ but lower its outlook from stable to negative

  
Analysis, Economy
#  #  #

Fitch Ratings has affirmed France at ‘AA’ but cites (amongst other factors) the substantial worsening in public finances and economic activity expected this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic for its lowering of the outlook to negative.

  • The combination of much reduced economic activity due to containment measures introduced from March and government policies to support the economy in the period of enforced reduced activity will sharply increase government borrowing and indebtedness. This deterioration of France’s public finance metrics will happen in the context of already high debt levels in comparison with rating peers, limited progress in fiscal consolidation since the global financial crisis, and moderate real economic growth.
That’s a summary, the report also notes:
  • France’s ratings are underpinned by a large, wealthy and diversified economy, strong and effective civil and social institutions and a track record of macro-financial stability. Public finances, and particularly the high level of government debt, remain a rating weakness relative to the ‘AA’ category. 
More at that link above
Fitch Ratings has affirmed France at 'AA' but cites (amongst other factors) the substantial worsening in public finances and economic activity expected this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic for its lowering of the outlook to negative.

Gilead to make remdesivir coronavirus treatment in 127 countries

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #

Gilead has struck a licensing agreement with five generic drugmakers around the globe

  • deal is to make antiviral drug remdesivir in 127 countries
  • deal is “royalty-free” until WHO says the Covid-19 outbreak is no longer a global health crisis or “until a pharmaceutical product other than remdesivir or a vaccine is approved to treat or prevent Covid-19.”
Back in mid-April I posted the breaking the news on this:
  • Early data on Gilead coronavirus medicine remdesivir is very encouraging
The news prompted swings not only in stocks but also in other markets (FX of course) . Since then there have been various updates, it works, it doesn’t, the usual. Much of of it ill-informed (again, the usual).
Anyway, the latest is this licensing agreement for the drug. Beats drinking bleach I guess.
Here you go, the recipe! (via Wikipedia if memory serves)Gilead has struck a licensing agreement with five generic drugmakers around the globe

Coronavirus – US researchers have forecast the death toll to nearly double

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is used by the White House

  • has forecast a very sharp increase from its last estimate in mid-April
  • due to rising mobility and the easing of social distancing measures in 31 states by May 11.
  • revised forecast death toll to 135,000
  • 3,000 to die each day by the end of May
Sad news indeed.
Pic is from an earlier Trump info session when the forecast had 100k as the minimum,
The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is used by the White House

Links……..For U

  
Analysis, LINKS
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Staying Safe:

• 24 Hours at the Epicenter of the Coronavirus Pandemic: Doctors, nurses, a congressman, workers in deserted museums and theatres, men on early release from Rikers, and the newly unemployed strained to keep New York City, and themselves, going. (New Yorker)
• What if immunity to covid-19 doesn’t last? (MIT Technology Review)
• ‘Frostbite’ toes and other peculiar rashes may be signs of hidden coronavirus infection, especially in the young (Washington Post)
• We have to wake up: factory farms are breeding grounds for pandemics (The Guardian)

Aid and assistance:

• COVID Tests Are Free, Except When They’re Not (Kaiser Health News)
• Useful table of extended state tax filing deadlines  (Tax Foundation)
• Figuring Out Your Personal Finances Together (Wall Street Journal)

Staying Sane WFH:

• Signs You May Be Burning Out—and What to Do About It (Businessweek)
• “It Is Harrowing. It Is Daunting. It Is Overwhelming”: The Mental Toll of Coronavirus Is Crushing Medical Workers (Vanity Fair)
• Which epidemiologist do you believe? (UnHerd)
• Yuval Noah Harari: ‘Will coronavirus change our attitudes to death? Quite the opposite’ (The Guardian)

Vaccine & Treatment Updates:

• In Race for a Coronavirus Vaccine, an Oxford Group Leaps Ahead (New York Times)
• Some Countries Are Squashing the Coronavirus Curve. Vietnam Is One. (Wall Street Journal)
• Three potential coronavirus vaccines moving ahead in tests (Los Angeles Times)
• When will we get the Covid-19 vaccine? (UnHerd) see also How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take? (New York Times)
• UCSF team has discovered drugs that block coronavirus, paving way for ‘a better drug sooner’ (San Francisco Chronicle)
• The Secret Group of Scientists and Billionaires Pushing a Manhattan Project for Covid-19 (Wall Street Journal)

Resolving the Crisis:

• Dogs are being trained to sniff out coronavirus cases (Washington Post)
• Could contact tracing bring the US out of lockdown? (Vox)
• LA Becomes The First Major City In The US To Offer Free Testing To Every Resident, Even Those With No Symptoms (LAist)
• Why America’s coronavirus testing problem is still so difficult to solve (Vox)
• No Testing, No Treatment, No Herd Immunity, No Easy Way Out (The Atlantic)
• Poop may tell us when the coronavirus lockdown will end (LA Times)
• We Cannot “Reopen” America: The source of the economic shock is not government orders. It’s the pandemic. (The Bulwark)
• Reopening Plans Across U.S. Are Creating Confusing Patchwork (New York Times)

Post-Crisis

• What will cities look like once the lockdown lifts? (King’s College London)
• Five Ways the U.S. Military Will Change After the Pandemic (War on the Rocks)
• Will Travel Change After Coronavirus? Here’s What Experts Have to Say (Travel & Leisure)
• The Office You Left Is Not Going to Be the Office You Return To (Bloomberg)
• One Rich N.Y. Hospital Got Warren Buffett’s Help. This One Got Duct Tape. (New York Times)
• Covid-19’s future: small outbreaks, monster wave, or ongoing crisis (Stat)
• What the Coronavirus Crisis Reveals About American Medicine (New Yorker)
• The Immunity of the Tech Giants: When the pandemic is over, we most certainly should fear the industry more than ever (New York Times)

Broader indices fall over 3%. Dow down -2.67%

  
Analysis, US Market
#  #  #  #  #  #  #

All S&P sectors close lower.

The broader stock indices fell over 3% with the Nasdaq leading the way to the downside. The Dow 30 index fell -2.67%
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P index fell -86.60 points or -3.07% at2736.60
  • The Nasdaq index fell -297/49 points or -3.48% at 8263.23
  • The Dow 30 stock index fel -631 points or -2.67% at 23018.88.
Netflix shares are higher after the close after subscriber numbers surged 15.8M vs est of 8.47M
The 1Q revenues came in at $5.77B vs $5.76B estimate.  EPS came in at $1.57. They see 2Q rising to $1.81.

Goldman Sachs are unimpressed by the oil output cut deal – “insufficient”

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #

GS say the OPEC+ G20 production cut is too little too late, and the bank sees downside risk to its $20/barrel price forecast

  • “Today’s agreement leaves the voluntary cuts as still too little and too late to avoid breaching storage capacity, ensuring that low oil prices force all producers to contribute to the market rebalancing”
  • no voluntary cuts could be large enough to offset the 19m b/d average April-May demand loss due to the coronavirus
  • OPEC+ voluntary cut is an only actual 4.3m b/d reduction in production from 1Q 2020 levels
—
Oil traded higher initially upon market reopen for the week, gave it all back and turned negative and is now not much changed from late last week levels.

Here are the main points so far of the OPEC+ agreement to cut oil output (and the 3 things they missed)

  
Analysis, Crude
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

OPEC+ and the G20 have agreed to cut oil production by just under 10 million barrels / day.

Oil trading begins for the week at 2200GMT with Sunday evening trade on CME,
ICYMI … :
  • a cut of circa 9.7 million barrels a day of oil across OPEC+ and the G20
  • 13-nation OPEC and others (Russia, US are two) agreed to share cuts

Its unclear how the cuts are to be apportioned, and how the US intends to enforce its promised cuts, but indications are (its is very unclear, but these from sources, awaiting confirmation):

  • Mexico cut 100,000 barrels a day
  • US by 300,000 barrels / day
  • Saudi Arabia’s production to be reduced to 8.5m bpd (from the current whopping 12 million bpd)

When oil trade reopens for the week we’ll see how successful the agreement is, so far, at limiting further price falls for oil.

The important factors that the supply cut does not, is not able, to address is of course is the demand side of the equation. Demand is lower due to:
  • social distancing lock downs of economies
  • the further, recessionary economic impact of these measures (the impacts will linger)
Back to the supply side to finish up, there is a huge overhang of oil in storage.
OPEC+ G20 cut oil production
Go to top