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Most Common Advice is Ineffective

  
  Education
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ADVICE FOR TRADERS“Plan the trade, and trade the plan!” is perhaps the most common advice given to traders. As far as advice goes, it’s well meaning, but unfortunately falls well short of addressing the problem most traders actually face. 

Looking at the advice, it has two parts. The first part says you need a plan. No argument there. But the second part, about executing the plan, that’s where the problems appear. Why?

The two parts to the advice ‘plan the trade’ and the ‘trade the plan’ require two very different skill sets. Without understanding the different skills required, it’s highly likely that you will continue to regularly veer from your plan.

Here’s the disconnect. Planning the trade depends on your intellect. And most of the time, the development of the plan does not occur in the heat of battle.  It’s relatively easily to let your intellect guide you, to be the primary driver when you’re not in the heat of battle. But in the heat of battle, when we have to decide right now whether to enter or exit, an entirely different situation occurs. (more…)

One Liner-Trading Wisdom

  
  Education
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If your not sure and don’t have an edge, cash IS a strategy.
If you are on a cold streak, reduce size by 70% and tighten stops for a week.
Stocks aren’t people, they cant be trusted, an algorithm doesn’t care that you think you know the story or the chart.
Don’t be “all in” in any name, you will blow up your account.
It’s totally cool to change your mind right after a trade, the market changes by the minute, so should you.
Pick one strategy and stick to it. This may take time if you are a beginner.
You have to break a few eggs to make an omelet, so take losses but keep them very small.
I haven’t taken someone else s idea in a long time, you have just as good a chance of being right or wrong as some other putz.
Don’t have 15 technical indicators on your screen, that’s and EKG not a chart. Less is more.
Don’t trade pissed off, it will crush your P&L
Guess who wins when you “revenge” trade?
Take partial profits on the way up and raise your stops.
When you have three losing trades in a row, take a walk around the block. You may get an epiphany, at the very least it’s therapeutic.
Realize early that the market will always be smarter than you.

Discipline

  
  Education
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discipline-0Every day, every trade requires 100% discipline.

Discipline = Emotional Mastery, A Formula Of Confidence/Caution + Humility.

Confident but no caution = Arrogance. Cautious but not Confident = a lack of Conviction, Weakness.

A freedom from pride & Arrogance is Humility. A Weak Trader will never win in the long run.

A Super Trader = A Disciplined Trader. In Discipline, No Weakness Can Exist.

 

Independent Trading: Pros & Cons

  
  Education
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In fact, there’s probably no better time than the present to talk briefly about the pros and cons of being an “independent trader.”

As someone who has worked independently for most of my professional career, you can say I place a tremendous value on “doing my own thing.” As I’ve often said, at least for me it has been a combination of personal choice (what I want in both life and career) and also necessity (as I don’t play well with others). Indeed, there are some tremendous positives for trading independently. After all, I wouldn’t be doing this if there were not some significant advantages from doing so!

Here are a few things that first come to mind:

  • As an independent trader, I set my goals and I’m in charge of my own destiny. I don’t rely on any other person for how much money I make or how I make it. Other people’s opinions of me are irrelevant to my own destiny. At the end of the day, bottom line trading results (not office politics) are all that matters.

  • Most people in “normal jobs” don’t have the opportunity to set out on their own and do something they really want and love to do and also make plenty of money doing it.

  • I spend most of my time every day doing things I really like to do (trading, reading, researching, running screens & mentoring others). These are things I would do even if I were not paid to do them because it is what I like to do the most! Every day I plan my work on things I want to work on, not what others want me to work on. That level of professional autonomy is rare.

  • The sense of accomplishment when you achieve success in the markets independently is unparalleled. There’s nothing like finding and taking a good trade that produces lots of upside gain. This is especially true when that trade is unpopular and unforeseen by the herd.

  • Through my research I’ve been able to learn about many things, many industries, many countries, and many people. At this point, I can have a conversation with just about anyone no matter what they do for a living or where they live because I know something we can probably talk about based on what I’ve learned and know about others.

  • It is always interesting and I’m NEVER bored. It is so true there is no better drama on Earth than following and being a participant in the markets daily.

  • Trading independently offers level of personal freedom that isn’t present in most jobs. If I want a day off to play golf, help a friend, visit with family, I do it. I don’t have to ask anyone for permission! However, offering a paid members-only website places some severe limitations on that freedom!

    • So, now I’ve talked about the positives, what are the downsides to trading independently? (more…)

The perfect drink for those who need to nourish their sex glands

  
Education, Uncategorized
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adultdrink

Here is a different sort of “adult” beverage. This new drink called Adult doesn’t have any alcohol in it, nor does it have any sugar, caffeine, preservatives or carbs. What it does have is all of the ingredients needed to enhance your sex drive, according to Ted Chao, president of the U.S. People Foods & Beverages Co. and maker of the Dr. Chao Herbal Drink Line. According to the company, this “potion nourishes the sex glands.” The secret ingredients are horny goat weed (Herba epimedii), Wolfberry fruit (Fructus lycii) and other ingredients taken from the recipes of a 19th-century Chinese herbalist. Not satisfied with just helping out in the bedroom, Dr. Chao has also created a drink called “Lady.” This elixir allegedly helps reduce PMS symptoms with the combination of saffron, aloe and something called motherwort herb. Chocolate was not listed anywhere in the ingredients.

Knight's Trading loss

  
  Education
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Going around Wall Street last week….

Knight lost $440mil in ~45 minutes
That works out to ~$9.8mil a minute
Just for an idea of the speed at which they lost the money… they were losing money FASTER than the entire S&P was making it! (and we’re just talking Revs here not net income!)
The 500 names in the S&P made $5.06T in the trailing 12 months
Here is the math…
 S&P trailing 12 Revs  $5,062,957,971,936
 per day                  $13,871,117,731
 per hour                    $577,963,239
 per min                       $9,632,721
 Knight loss                 $440,000,000
 per minute                    $9,777,778

THE MOST COMMON ERROR IN STOCK MARKET RESEARCH

  
  Education
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Jeff Miller of Dash of Insight wrote a brilliant post on common research mistakes. It can be found here.

He breaks it down into two things:  Selecting the Right Data and Comparison.

Selecting the Right Data.  As the saying goes, if you torture the data for long enough it will tell you anything.  There is so much data out there that you can make it say whatever you want.  The most important thing about finding the right data is accepting the limitations of it and understanding it.  Look at this way, I like a fast car but insurance and gas will cost more. Does that justify the tradeoffs for me?  Yes.  You?  Maybe.  All data is local.

Comparison.  Mr. Miller calls is comparison but I prefer the word context.  Most anyone can look at a data or chart and come to a reasonable outcome.  Data records it does not tell the story.  It can can tell a story but for the most part they are without context.  Yes you can throw a couple more pieces of data in and get closer but who knows.  Think about how ridiculous it would sound if I showed you a picture from 1950′s Chicago and asked you what it was like.

What Mr. Miller didn’t mention, probably because of time or my inabilities, is that data is secondary to what we do with it.  For the most part we are untrained at using it.  We are 14 year olds at the Playboy mansions. We get data F@#%&ed, data blocked, data complacent or whatever you want to call it.

The Strategy Of John Neff

  
  Education
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MUST READTaken from the April 26, 2013 issue of The Validea Hot List

Guru Spotlight: John Neff

Most investors wouldn’t give a fund described as “relatively prosaic, dull, conservative” a second glance. That, however, is exactly how John Neff described the Windsor Fund that he headed for more than three decades. And, while his style may not have been flashy or eye-catching, the returns he generated for clients were dazzling — so dazzling that Neff’s track record may be the greatest ever for a mutual fund manager.

By focusing on beaten down, unloved stocks, Neff was able to find value in places that most investors overlooked. And when the rest of the market caught on to his finds, he and his clients reaped the rewards. Over his 31-year tenure (1964-1995), Windsor averaged a 13.7 percent annual return, beating the market by an average of 3.1 percent per year. Looked at another way, a $10,000 investment in the fund the year Neff took the reins would have been worth more than $564,000 by the time he retired (with dividends reinvested); that same $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 (again with dividends reinvested) would have been worth less than half that after 31 years, about $233,000. That type of track record made the understated, low-key Neff a favorite manager of many other professional fund managers — an “investor’s investor”, if you will. (more…)

17 Points for Traders

  
  Education
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  1. Patient with winners, and impatient with losers
  2. Making money more important than being right
  3. View TA as a picture of where traders are lining up to buy and sell
  4. Before they enter every trade they will know their profit target and/or stop exit
  5. Approach trade no.5 with the same conviction as the previous 4 losing trades
  6. Use naked charts 
  7. Comfortable making decisions with incomplete information
  8. Do not think of markets as expensive or cheap
  9. Aggressive with trade size when doing well and modest when not
  10. Realize the market will be open tomorrow
  11. Judge their trading success on anything but money (more…)

Not A One Way Train

  
  Education
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Words of wisdom from Dave Landry’s new book, The Layman’s Guide To Trading Stocks:

Wall Street Myth 1: The market always goes up longer term

It seems to be universally preached that the market “always goes up longer term.” And, all you have to do is buy a diversified mutual fund or index fund and wait. The problem is that markets do not always go up longer term. Well, I suppose it all depends on what you mean by longer term.

Suppose you bought stocks in 1929 at the market peak. Provided you could have held through a 90% loss, it would then have taken you a quarter of a century just to get back to breakeven.

Let’s say you bought stocks in the mid-1960’s. Your return would have been almost zero until the market finally broke out in 1983, which was 17 years later.

When I began this chapter, I was concerned that there might be a “that was then, this is now” mentality. After all, the benchmark S&P 500 wasn’t far below breakeven from the 2000 peak. I thought I was going to have to make a strong case for not buying and holding. Unfortunately for the buy and hold crowd, the market made my case for me. The bear market that began in late 2007 would turn out to be the worst since 1929. By March 2009, the S&P was at 13-year lows. From these lows, the market will have to rally over 200 percent just to get to breakeven.

At more than one cocktail party, I have had people laugh in my face when I tell them that the market can go 25 years or more without going up. This has made for some heated discussions and awkward social situations. I have since learned from Dale Carnegie and my wife Marcy to just nod my head and enjoy my drink. Do not take my word for it, just look at the charts and grab me a Black and Tan while you are at it!

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