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Democracy Failure Follows Market Failure

  
Economy, Education
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Some very spicy comments from the Hungarian prime minister who basically tells the world to get lost (please admire effort to remain polite on his part). In so many words it’s not his fault, it’s the previous administration’s fault. Sounds familiar? Obama has used it at will, Greece has used it, I heard Sarkozy use it, and just about everybody else! Even Republicans who campaigned to “Drill baby drill!” now blame the BP fiasco on Obama. Needless to say political courage is something that no longer exists, and populism has been the only political program offered to us for now a solid 40 years. The natural extension is for a Prime Minister to just walk in and say: “You know what screw you guys, we will default, I am not taking back tax cuts that got me elected, I am not telling people who were promised early retirement that really it’s not feasible, I’m just not going to deal with any of this. Let’s just default and keep doing what we were doing”. In the same line of thought the French PM declared this morning that there is nothing bad about EURUSD at parity.

If you think it’s bad to sell someone a mortgage they can’t pay, how about promising them a lifestyle they can’t afford! Washington has some nerve to blame the financial industry: “a house for every American” was their idea. Granted there is plenty of blame and jail time deserved at many financial institutions but it is true also for Congress. I used to think that over the past 40 years the commodity that was most devalued was human labor but I have changed my mind. A man’s word no longer has any value in most cases. Should the law be changed so that it holds our leaders accountable for their words? Why not, we would get a hell of a clean slate and something to be finally hopeful about. That is change I would believe in for sure. (more…)

Differentiating Between an Impulse vs. Intuition from Experience

  
Analysis, Education
  • If a feeling feels urgent, if it feels compelling, suspect it as impulse.
  • If on the other hand, it feels calm, if it is a sense coming out of nowhere, consider it as recognition of something you know but aren’t conscious of yet.
  • Book knowledge has no feeling attached to it. Without experience, one lacks the sense, which is of course a type of feeling context, of how things fit together or whether they are true or false.

Byron Wien’s 20 Rules of Investing & Life

  
Education, Life
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MUST READOutstanding list from a man who has accumulated much wisdom over the years:

 Lessons Learned in His First 80 Years

1. Concentrate on finding a big idea that will make an impact on the people you want to influence. The Ten Surprises, which I started doing in 1986, has been a defining product. People all over the world are aware of it and identify me with it. What they seem to like about it is that I put myself at risk by going on record with these events which I believe are probable and hold myself accountable at year-end. If you want to be successful and live a long, stimulating life, keep yourself at risk intellectually all the time.

2. Network intensely. Luck plays a big role in life, and there is no better way to increase your luck than by knowing as many people as possible. Nurture your network by sending articles, books and emails to people to show you’re thinking about them. Write op-eds and thought pieces for major publications. Organize discussion groups to bring your thoughtful friends together.

3. When you meet someone new, treat that person as a friend. Assume he or she is a winner and will become a positive force in your life. Most people wait for others to prove their value. Give them the benefit of the doubt from the start. Occasionally you will be disappointed, but your network will broaden rapidly if you follow this path.

4. Read all the time. Don’t just do it because you’re curious about something, read actively. Have a point of view before you start a book or article and see if what you think is confirmed or refuted by the author. If you do that, you will read faster and comprehend more.

5. Get enough sleep. Seven hours will do until you’re sixty, eight from sixty to seventy, nine thereafter, which might include eight hours at night and a one-hour afternoon nap.

6. Evolve. Try to think of your life in phases so you can avoid a burn-out. Do the numbers crunching in the early phase of your career. Try developing concepts later on. Stay at risk throughout the process. (more…)

Dealing with entry timing

  
  Education
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How do you personally get around from being “too early” or “too late” on an entry?

There are a few things that have helped me get over missing a trade or “being right” and not making money.

  • Opportunity vs profit. I thought the market owed me profits.  Now, I see the bars on the chart not as profit but an opportunity to profit.  The market does not owe me anything.  I owe it to myself to execute my plan to the best of my ability.  Good things happen.
  • Important feedback. If a trade develops in a way that I had not anticipated, it means I did not notice a change.  It is now up to me to understand why or determine it was an aberration.  Either way the market is giving me valuable feedback.
  • Unlimited time horizon. One of the side effects of trading is missing trades.  It is something that you have to get over.  It is a fact of life.  The next trade is always more important than the last one.  You should have more experience and knowledge, right?  Knowledge of yourself, the market, and the interaction between the two.

Said in one sentence.  I get over missing trades because I do not have a sense of entitlement, willing to use the feedback, and know that it is just one trade in 1000′s or hopefully 10,000′s.

Why We Fear Simple Money Solutions

  
  Education
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I keep coming across an interesting problem. People say they want things to be simpler — investing, life insurance, retirement planning, etc. But when a simpler (and effective) option is proposed, they reject it as too simple.

In most of the money situations I’ve come across, the best solution is almost by definition the simplest. (Note: I didn’t say the easiest.)

So why don’t we go for simple?

1) We don’t believe it will work.

We’re attracted to complexity because anything that requires a lot of something — time, details, money — should work, right? By default, if it’s simple, say only two steps instead of ten, we think we’re missing out.

2) We think simple should be easy.

It’s like the guy who goes to the doctor and says he doesn’t feel well. There must be something wrong with him that a pill could fix. But all the doctor says is, “Get more sleep, eat healthier food and exercise three times a week.” (more…)

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