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2 Thoughts For Traders

  
  Education
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It is impossible to make money trading without an edge.

There are many ways to create an edge in the markets, but one this is true—it is very, very hard to do so. Most things that people say work in the market do not actually work. Treat claims of success and performance with healthy skepticism. I can tell you, based on my experience of nearly twenty years as a trader, most people who say they are making substantial profits are not. This is a very hard business.

Every edge we have is driven by an imbalance of buying and selling pressure.

The world divides into two large groups of traders and investors: fundamental traders who base decisions off of financial analysis, understanding of the industry and a company’s competitive position, growth rates, assessment of management, etc. Technical traders base decisions off of patterns in prices, volume or related data. From a technical perspective, every edge we have is generated by a disagreement between buyers and sellers. When they are in balance (equilibrium), market movements are random.

The Wyckoff Spark

  
  Education
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On a recent plane trip, yours truly polished off “How I Trade and Invest in Stocks and Bonds” by Richard D. Wyckoff.

Originally published in 1924, this short little book is a classic — well worth revisiting — and will later get a full review in its own right. (There is just something wonderful about old trading books.)

For now, though, the below passage is excellent — a classic demonstration of utilizing all the principles of the game.

Next in importance to knowing what to buy is the question as to when it should be done. (more…)

Jeffrey A. Hirsch , The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles-Book Review

  
  Education
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Jeffrey A. Hirsch is best known as the editor-in-chief of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. He draws on the extensive research behind that yearly publication for The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles: How to Take Advantage of Time-Proven Market Patterns (Wiley, 2012). 
Let’s get Hirsch’s most controversial call—that the Dow will reach 38,820 by the year 2025—out of the way right at the beginning. He claims that this “is not a market forecast; it is an expectation that human ingenuity will overcome adversity, just as it has on countless past occasions.” (p. 66) The operative equation is “War and Peace + Inflation + Secular Bull Market + Enabling Technology = 500% Super Boom Move.” (p. 67) But don’t buy that magnificent villa overlooking the Pacific or the Ferrari you’ve been coveting just yet. “[A]fter stalling near 14,000-resistance in 2012-2013, Dow 8,000 is likely to come under fire in 2013-2014 as we withdraw from Afghanistan. Resistance will likely be met in 2015-2017 near 13,000 to 14,000. Another test of 8,000-support in 2017-2018 is expected as inflation begins to level off and the next super boom commences. By 2020, we should be testing 15,000 and after a brief pullback be on our way to 25,000 in 2022. A bear market in midterm 2022 should be followed by a three- to four-year tear toward Dow 40,000.” (pp. 67-68) In brief, if Hirsch’s scenario plays out, we’ve got quite a wait for the market to catch up with our dreams.
The bulk of Hirsch’s book describes the most effective market seasonalities. Take, for instance, the presidential election cycle. Since 1913, from the post-election year high to the midterm low the Dow has lost 20.9% on average. By contrast, from the midterm low to the preelection high, the Dow has gained nearly 50% on average since 1914. (more…)

Stop It

  
  Education
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There’s an old joke about the investor who never used any stop losses. His friend knew his big positions were getting crushed.

Out of concern, the friend asked, “How are you sleeping?”

“Like a baby” he answered.

“Really? You aren’t nervous or upset?”

“I sleep like a baby” he repeated.

“That’s amazing. I’d never be able to sleep through the night with those types of losses.”

“Who said anything about sleeping through the night? I said I slept like a baby: I wake up every two hours, wet myself and cry for 30 minutes before falling back to sleep.”

That’s why risk management is so critical: to save you from sleeping like a baby, and in the long run to save you a lot of money.

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There’s a reason flight attendants show you where the emergency exits are before takeoff. The same thinking should apply to investors. Prudent investors have a sell strategy in place beforethey get involved with a stock. Using any of these stop strategies helps keep your emotions out of the process when an investing emergency arises.

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