Once upon a time, there was a young hare, a hotshot rabbit investor who would always brag to anyone that would listen and that he was the smartest, fastest, best performing investor in the world. He would constantly tease the old tortoise about his slow, solid investment style.Then, one day, the annoyed tortoise answered back: “There is no denying that you are very aggressive in your investment strategy. (more…)
Here are some things you’ve probably been hearing during the current bull market from a wide range of investors including some tongue-in-cheek translations about what they really mean.
On Fair Value:
Bears: We think the market’s fair value is much lower than current levels. (Translation: We have to say it’s way lower than the level where we called for a crash four years ago.)
Bulls: We think the market is fairly valued at current levels. (Translation: I have no idea what the fair value of the market is and neither does anyone else.)
Investment Strategists: If earnings grow at a consistent rate forever into the future and you slap a P/E ratio of 16x on the market we think stocks will rise 8-10% this year. (Translation: Stocks are up 3 out of every 4 years so if I keep predicting this I’m bound to be right eventually.)
Value Investors: The market is overvalued but our stocks are trading at a 30-40% discount to fair value.
Growth Investors: The monthly active user numbers are off the charts for this 3 person company that’s worth $50 billion.
On Market Gains:
Bears: It’s all artificial. (Translation: I didn’t participate.)
Bulls: We’re constructive from here and see a period of consolidation. (Translation: Please don’t fall, we’re all in).
On Sentiment:
Bears: Everyone is all in on the market. These people are delusional. No one sees the risks building up under the surface.
Bulls: Everyone is still bearish. Stocks climb the wall of worry.
I believed you have heard of many versions of the story about 2 monks. No? Let me refresh your memory, and explain to you how it is applicable to trading.
There were two Buddhist monks walking along the bank of a river, making their way to back to the temple.
As they were walking, they came across a beautiful lady standing at the side of the river. She stopped them and asked if one of them is willing to help her across the river. The junior monk did not bulge but the senior monk without any doubt, carried her on his back and across the river. The senior monk put her down on the other side and she thanked him profusely and hurried off. The junior monk was taken aback by the gesture but kept to himself. The senior monk returned and they carried on with the journey.
As they walked, the junior monk kept brooding about the incident until it was unbearable and broke the silence, “why did you carry that woman across the river? Knowing that our religion forbid us to touch women!”
The senior monk replied peacefully, “I put her down a moment ago and you are still carrying her.” (more…)
Lesson Number One: Cut your losses quickly.
As soon as a trade is contemplated, a trader must know at what point in time he’ll be proven wrong and exit a position. If a trader doesn’t know his exit before he takes the entry, he might as well go to the racetrack or casino where at least the odds can be quantified.
Lesson Number Two: Confirm your judgment before going all in.
Livermore was famous for throwing out a small position and waiting for his thesis to be confirmed. Once the stock was traveling in the direction he desired, Livermore would pile on rapidly to maximize the returns.
There are several ways to buy more in a winning position — pyramiding up, buying in thirds at predetermined prices, being 100% in no more than 5% above the initial entry — but the take home is to buy in the direction of your winning trade – never when it goes against you.
Lesson Number Three: Watch leading stocks for the best action.
Livermore knew that trending issues were where the big money would be made, and to fight this reality was a loser’s game.
Lesson Number Four: Let profits ride until price action dictates otherwise.
“It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.”
One method that satisfies the desire for profit and subdues the fear of a losing trade is to take one half of your profit off at a predetermined level, put a stop at breakeven on the rest, and let it play out without micromanaging the position. (more…)
