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Bull Markets Roll, Bear Markets Spike

  
  Education
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bullbear-ASRThere is an old trader’s saying that “bull markets roll, but bear markets spike.” This comes from the characteristic nature of the price action.

When a market is in bull mode, the majority of participants are happy and content (as the vast majority of investors are “long only”). The bull market thus “rolls” along, like undulating waves of grain, as more bullish investment capital flows into the market and positions are added to.

When a market is in bear mode, however, the majority of participants are annoyed or upset (because, again, those willing to go short are relatively few, while all the world is comfortable being long). The result is much more of a rough, jagged, against-the-grain type profile, in which extended declines are interspersed with surprisingly vicious rallies of short duration.

These mini-rallies are made even more vicious by the forced activity of “short covering,” in which bearish traders caught napping get “squeezed” out of their positions by the fighting spirit of the bulls.

Lying in wait at the top of a salmon-rich waterfall, then, is akin to waiting for that “spike” to occur before putting out a new bearish line. How do you identify such an occurrence? Simple:

  • Wait for your intended market to confirm a new downtrend (or break key support).
  • Wait for a countertrend rally – one that takes prices higher, but does not “clear” the bearish trend.
  • Enter upon reasonable evidence that the countertrend rally (or spike) has run its course.

Your Comfort Zone

  
  Education
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High achievers (in life and in the market) frequently step outside their comfort zone. That’s the way they learn and make progress. At the same time, they also expect to fail (more often than not), but do not see failure or mistakes they make as problems, but as educational experiences.

The natural instinct of all of us is to seek safety and shelter, unfortunately at the exact same time when we should be aggressive and risk tolerant. Those who do well in the market understand this natural human tendency and they consistently work against it when others are doing the exact opposite.

The key for today is to first understand what your comfort zone is and then take a step outside of it. Remember, the market doesn’t reward comfort and decisions that “feel” good to make. That’s the law of nature and it is true of this market like any other.

Tech Gained $1.7 Trillion in 2017

  
Analysis, Education
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“Between the FAANG quintet and China’s rivaling BAT companies, gains in the world’s top technology shares are nearing a whopping $1.7 trillion in market value this year.
That’s more than Canada’s entire economy, and exceeds the worth of Germany’s biggest 30 companies put together. The eight tech giants — Facebook Inc., Amazon Inc., Apple Inc., Netflix Inc. and Google parent Alphabet Inc., as well as their Asian peers Baidu Inc., Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. — have amassed as much money in 2017 as Pacific Investment Management Co., one of the world’s biggest fund managers, has done in about 46 years.” (emphasis added)

The chart nearby shows some comparison veresus, DAX, Pimco and Canada!
 
Monster Tech Gains 2017 YTD
click for ginormous graphic

Problems with “risk free” trading

  
  Education
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  • It is hard to understand if it is an aberration or the new rule. Many people go down with the ship or by the time they find the advantage it disappears.
  • Risk always catches up with you.  Not realizing risk does not mean the absence of risk.
  • Career traders look for things they can repeatable do.  Learning is where the pressure comes from.  Learning is does not  factor if you are relying on Pavlovian responses.
  • Not every trade is the same.  You can never learn how to trade larger risking the same dollar amount.  The dollar amount you are down is more important of a factor in position size than market conditions.
  • All “risk free” trading is backward looking.  It is relying strictly on what happened in the past and those successes.  If the regulatory bodies got one thing right it is the standard disclaimer that most people ignore, “Past results are no indication of future performance”.

14 Points for Traders

  
  Education
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1. Have a profit? Forget it. Have a loss? Forget it even quicker.
2. It was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It was my sitting, my sitting tight.
3. There is only one side to the stock market and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.
4. If you don’t know what’s going on, don’t do anything.
5. Markets are never wrong, opinions often are.
6. Don’t be too curious about the reasons behind moves.
7. The smarter you are, the longer it takes.
8. When time is up, markets will reverse.
9. Don’t expect the tape to be a lecturer. It’s enough to see that something is wrong.
10. Don’t imagine that a market that once sold at 150 is cheap at 130.
11. A man does not swear eternal allegiance to either the bear or bull side.
12. People believe what it pleases them to believe.
13. Trend followers plan when they will get out before they ever get in.
14. Know every day what your portfolio is worth. Calculate what your risks are on any given day for all positions.

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