Archives of “Global Indices” category

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Eurostoxx futures +0.7% in early European trading

  
Analysis, Global Indices

European futures playing catch up to the late gains in Wall Street overnight

  • German DAX futures +0.8%
  • French CAC 40 futures +0.6%
  • UK FTSE futures +0.7%
Just be mindful that the more solid gains we’re seeing in European futures at the moment are more related to the late recovery in Wall Street during overnight trading.
European equities ended in the red yesterday amid concerns surrounding the new coronavirus outbreak and failed to partake in the late surge in US equities. As such, we’re seeing a bit of catch up play at the moment ahead of the cash equity market open.
The overall risk mood is actually more steady with bond yields mildly higher and US futures also near flat levels on the day still at the moment. That is also reflected in USD/JPY which is keeping around 109.50-55 as we begin the session.

European major bourses are closing lower on the day

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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German DAX -1.0%. UK FTSE, -0.9%

The major European bourses are closing lower on the day.  Global concerns about the impact of coronavirus have sapped the energy from the stock market.
The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, -1.0%
  • France’s CAC, -0.7%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, -0.9%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.6%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB is trading near unchanged
In the European benchmark 10 year debt sector, yields are trading lower on the day. The Italian yields are down the most at -9.3 basis points. The others countries yields are down around 5 basis points each. Below are the basis point changes as well as the high and low yields trading today:
German DAX -1.0%. UK FTSE, -0.9%_

European shares are ending the session in the red

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Major indices move lower in trading today

The major European stock indices are closing the day in the red, erasing earlier gains.
The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, -0.3%. It was up about 0.60% the highs
  • France’s CAC, -0.6%. It reached the high of +0.40%
  • UK’s FTSE, -0.6%. It peaked at +0.36%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.4%. It was up around 0.22% at the highs
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.6%.  It rose by 0.29% at session highs
In the European debt market, the benchmark yields are mostly lower. France 10 year notes move back below the 0.0% level and is trading at -0.007% currently (low yield reach -0.019%).
Major indices move lower in trading today_

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Nikkei 225 closes higher by 0.70% at 24,031.35

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Asian equities rebound as investors brush aside China virus fears

Nikkei 22-01

Japanese stocks recover after a weak start, mirroring the mood in Asian equities as investors fade the fear of the new coronavirus outbreak after China vowed to take measures to prevent and control the situation.

The Hang Seng is up by 1.1% while Chinese stocks have recovered strongly with the Shanghai Composite now up by 0.3% after having fallen by ~1% to start the day.
US futures are also up by ~0.5% and that is keeping markets in a more cheery mood to start the European morning. As such, USD/JPY is keeping a little higher at 110.04 currently.

European shares close lower on China virus concerns

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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German DAX unchanged

The coronavirus concerns have sapped upside momentum from European shares. The falls come despite economic data out of Europe that was not bad.   UK employment data was strong and German/EU ZEW sentiment data was also better-than-expected.

The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, unchanged
  • France’s CAC, -0.54%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, -0.57%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.57%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.6%
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are ending mostly lower with Italian yields up marginally.  France’s 10 year yield move back toward the 0.0% level. The low reached 0.001%.
German DAX unchanged_
In other markets,
  • gold slid earlier to a low price of $1546.41, but has rebounded and currently trades at $1557.19. That’s down about $3.50 or -0.23%
  • WTI crude oil futures are down $0.25 or 0.43% of $58.29
In the US stock market the NASDAQ index turned positive after opening lower and traded to it a new all-time high.
The current prices are showing:
  • S&P index -3.04 points or -0.09% 3326.60
  • NASDAQ index +5.068 points or 0.06% at 9394.20
  • Dow industrial average -41.7 points or -0.14% at 29306.64
In the US debt market yields are lower led by declines in the 10 year yield up -4.6 basis points. The yield curve is also flattened with the 2 – 10 spread falling to 23.74 basis points from 26.23 basis points on Friday..

Weekly market roundup: Bitcoin surges up and trade tension declines

  
Analysis, BITCOIN, Crude, Forex, Global Indices
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What drove markets this week

BitcoinThe dollar has generally made some gains this week against various currencies. These movements came after fairly good data from the USA as well as the signing of a first stage trade deal between the USA and China.

Some of the biggest news in forex markets this week came from central banks. Both the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) cut rates against expectations. The CBRT was first yesterday morning, cutting its one-week

repo rate from 12% to 11.25% compared with the consensus expectation of 11.5%.

Then the SARB also cut its repurchase rate to 6.25% yesterday afternoon, another decision that defied expectations. In a rare display of agreement among central bankers, the SARB’s

monetary policy committee voted unanimously to cut by 0.25%.

Shares reacted eagerly to news of the preliminary Sino-American trade deal, with US500 continuing its rapid gains since Monday’s open. Many European indices and shares also reached new all-time highs.

Bitcoin-dollar, daily

Bitcoin chartBTC-USD has surged up even more in the second half of the week. Current levels around $8,900 are the highest for about two months. The red trendline here is based on the weekly chart, starting from last summer’s highs around $13,000.

We can clearly see that price has broken out upward from this trendline, facing little resistance from the 100-period simple moving average.

The first major hurdle for the bulls here is likely to be the 200-day moving average. This is expected to be a strong area that could well resist testing at least temporarily. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement area which price is currently testing could also function as a resistance.

Technical indicators here give a very strong overbought signal. Price closed the last three days completely outside the upper deviation of Bollinger Bands (50, 0, 2).

The slow stochastic (15, 5, 5) is also clearly within the upper trigger zone. These factors would suggest that a retracement to some degree is likely within the next few periods.

American light oil, four-hour

American light oil chart

USOIL’scorrection appears to have paused for now. The large losses from last week’s nine-month highs were driven mainly by the decline of military tension between the USA and Iran in Iraq. Now, though, the signing of the first stage deal between China and the USA has given crude a significant fundamental boost.

As China is the world’s biggest consumer of crude oil, the outlook for the Chinese economy often influences the price of the commodity.

The regular data for crude were somewhat incompatible this week. The API’s stock change announced a gain of 1.1 barrels per million, but the EIA’s stock change read negative 2.55 million on Wednesday night.

USOIL didn’t react very strongly to either release, so we might expect that trade and Chinese data could continue as key drivers next week as well.

From a technical standpoint, the conditions seem to be there for oil to continue its overall uptrend from Q4 2019. Momentum to the downside has dried up this week while buying volume remains fairly high.

The most important resistances in the short term are likely to be the three moving averages, with the 200-period SMA probably the most important of these.

Dollar-yen, four-hour

USDJPY chart

USD-JPY has been somewhat less volatile this week while continuing to make some gains overall in the aftermath of decent data from the USA. Annual inflation and core inflation on Tuesday both printed 2.3% in line with expectations, the former beating the previous figure by 0.2%.

American retail sales came in at 0.3% yesterday afternoon in line with the consensus, but November’s release was revised upward slightly.

The charts look positive for dollar-yen but buying saturation could limit any ongoing gains. Price remains above all three of the usual moving averages, with the faster 50 SMA completing a golden cross of the slower two on Wednesday afternoon GMT.

On the other hand, volume remains very low, and the slow stochastic is still slightly inside the overbought zone.

It seems that most traders are waiting for key releases next week to provide some momentum, up or down. The Bank of Japan’s meeting on Tuesday morning and Japanese inflation late on Thursday evening are expected to bring some more direction to USD-JPY.

Nikkei 225 closes higher by 0.45% at 24,041.26

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Japanese stocks follow Wall St higher to end the week

Nikkei 17-01

Another record close for US equities is helping to keep Asian markets more buoyed to wrap up the week. Although Chinese stocks are more tepid amid China GDP data earlier, which reaffirmed the slowest growth pace in 29 years.

Both the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite indices are down by 0.1% going into the final stages of the week. Meanwhile, US futures are keeping more flat as the overall risk mood stays more steady to begin the European morning session.
Major currencies aren’t doing a whole lot with USD/JPY staying a little more upbeat above the 110.00 handle at 110.20 but the trading range remains relatively narrow still.

European shares end mostly lower. FTSE 100 does rise though

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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UK FTSE 100, +0.23%

The major European indices are ending the session mostly lower. The the exception is the UK’s FTSE 100 which has moved up by 0.23% on the day.
The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, -0.28%
  • France’s CAC, -0.2%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +0.23%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.24%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.69%
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are mostly lower (with the exception of the Portuguese 10 year note):
The European yields are lowerIn other markets as London/European traders look to exit for the day (and just ahead of the ceremonial signing of the US/China phase 1 trade deal):

  • Spot gold is up $4.25 or 0.28% at $1550.63
  • WTI crude oil futures are trading down $0.51 or -0.86% at $57.74
In the US stock market the major indices are higher and trading at record levels:
  • S&P index up 14.9 points or 0.46% at 3298.13 (high for the day). It is getting closer to the 3300 level
  • NASDAQ index is up 42.84 points or 0.46% at 9294.17. The high reached 9298.82 just short of the 9300 level
  • The Dow is up 168 points or 0.58% at 29108.24
In the US debt market, the yields are lower and the yield curve flatter again with the 2 – 10 year spread down to 22.44 basis points from 24.09 basis points at the close yesterday.
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