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CFTC commitments of traders: The largest position remains GBP shorts

  
Analysis, Forex
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Forex futures positioning data for the week ending September 24, 2019 from the CFTC  should

  • EUR short 66K vs 61K short last week. Shorts increased by 5K
  • GBP short 77K vs 81K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K
  • JPY long 14K vs 13K long last week. Longs trimmed by 1kK
  • CHF short 12k vs 11k short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
  • AUD short 52k vs 47k short last week. Shorts increased by 5K
  • NZD short 42K vs 45K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 3K
  • CAD long 6K vs 5K long last week.  Longs increased by 1K
  • prior week

Modest changes in the major currencies for the current week. Although speculators trimmed short positions in the pound, it remains the largest specular position. The EUR shorts increased by 5K. It is the 2nd largest short position.

The specular position in the JPY remains on the long side. The CAD is also a long position for traders.

European shares rebound and recover some of the week’s declines

  
Analysis, Forex

Provisional closes show gains

The provisional closes for the European shares are in the black today although the week is still showing lower levels.
The closes are showing:
  • German Dax, up 0.6%
  • France’s CAC, up 0.7%
  • UK’s FTSE, up 1.0%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +0.6%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.7%

For the week, the results are not so rosy. The numbers are showing:

  • German DAX, -2.20%
  • France’s CAC, -2.8%
  • UK’s FTSE, -3.8%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -2.6%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -2.9%
In the European debt market yields are mixed with UK yields down -2.8 BPS. The France 10 year is up 0.7 bps.
The weekly global stock market changes
As London/Europe trader look toward the exit, US shares are higher and tradng at session highs.
  • The S&P index is up 27.27 points or 0.94% at 2937.86
  • The NASDAQ index is up 72 points or 0.91% at 7944.16
  • The Dow is up to hundred 42 points or 0.92% at 26441.
The Nasdaq, is back at unchanged for the week.  A big rebound from the lows.

What lies ahead for the USD?

  
Analysis, Forex
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What is the outlook for the US dollar

What is the outlook for the US dollarThe USD has been steady versus a basket of major currencies since the start of 2019. The dollar index is trading close to September highs, which, in turn, are at the maximum levels since 2017.

The current week, however, hasn’t been very positive for the American currency. So, what future awaits it? In this article, you will find the fundamental outlook for the greenback.

US economy has faltered

Life shows that it’s not possible to fight in trade wars and stay unharmed. The data released on Tuesday showed that the US manufacturing sector is in its worst condition in a decade: ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped from 49.1 to 47.8 in September.

A reading below 50 indicates industry contraction. Given how low the latest number is, it’s certain that even if the underlying picture changes and positive factors come into play, the situation won’t be able to improve fast.

And so far, there are few reasons to believe that the United States and China will achieve a big breakthrough in their negotiations. Representatives of the nations will meet next week on October 10 and 11.

Although soothing comments may cheer the stock market, it will take the mutual renunciation of tariffs to amend the damage done to the economy. If talks fail, there will be more tariff hikes in the following months and hence an even stronger economic pain.

Moreover, recent rumors indicate that Donald Trump is considering limiting American investment flows to China. This step, if taken, would further escalate the trade conflict.

Remember that everything is interdependent in the economic world. Considering the external troubles, it’s now up to US consumers to drive economic growth. For them to be able to do that, they need ample wages.

(more…)

Chance of a Brexit deal by end of October low, chance of hard Brexit by end January up – thus sell GBP

  
Analysis, Forex

The Brexit headline to the post is the view from JP Morgan, in a nutshell

  • Says GBP is no longer as cheap
  • JPM like short GBP, particularly against CHF
  • chance of end October Brexit deal are very low
  • chance of a hard Brexit by January have increased
  • BOE Saunders’s tilt to dovish supports short GBP view
  • Add these together and “we view risks to GBP tilted to the downside”
JPMorgan stop at 1.2450
Hourly candles GBPCHF:
The Brexit headline to the post is the view from JP Morgan, in a nutshell

CFTC Commitments of Traders: Canadian dollar buyers bail

  
Analysis, Forex
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Forex futures positioning data for the week ending September 24, 2019 from the CFTC:

Forex futures positioning data for the week ending September 24, 2019 from the CFTC:
  • EUR short 61K vs 69K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 8K
  • GBP short 81K vs 86K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 5K
  • JPY long 13K vs 24K long last week. Longs trimmed by 11K
  • CHF short 11k vs 5k short last week. Shorts increased by 6K
  • AUD short 47k vs 54k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 7K
  • NZD short 36K vs 30K short last week. Shorts increased by 6K
  • CAD long 5K vs 20K long last week.  Longs trimmed by 15K
There were some substantial moves across the board in this week’s data. There was no overarching theme in the US dollar. The loonie has stubbornly held onto longs but I suspect the jump in oil prices and lack of a corresponding climb in the loonie may have sent some specs to the sidelines — that data certainty hasn’t eroded.
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