September 8, 2022 - Financial Occultist

Do not exclude a 75 basis point hike in October if inflation outlook warrants an additional big step.
ECB Lane struck a more hawkish tone at the meeting today
QT is expected to be discussed at the October for the meeting and later dates

European equity close: Decent comeback after the ECB

08-Sep-22 09:39 pm

Anirudh Sethi

UK FTSE 100 +0.4%
Stoxx 600 +0.4%
German DAX -0.1%
French CAC +0.3%
Italy MIB +0.9%
Spain IBEX +0.9%

The DAX is trying to base above the July lows.

Japan’s deputy chief Cabinet secretary said that they are monitoring FX moves with a high degree of urgency.

08-Sep-22 01:44 pm

Analysis

Anirudh Sethi

Sharp FX fluctuations are not desriable
Important for currency to move stably reflecting economic fundamentals
Concerned by rapid, one-sided currency moves
Does not want to comment on specifics (when asked about intervention)

Well, you can pretty much copy and paste these comments for later after the meeting between the MOF, FSA, and BOJ as pointed out here. It is pretty much a rehash of what they have talked up previously and I would expect the statement later to reinforce the narrative.

The IfW economic institute foresees a recession and record inflation in Germany for next year.

08-Sep-22 01:42 pm

Anirudh Sethi

Sees the German economy contraction by 0.7% in 2023 (previously predicted growth of 3.3% back in June)
Sees inflation this year at 8.0% (up from 7.4% previously)
Sees inflation next year at 8.7% (up from 4.2% previously)

On the forecast revisions, the firm says that “the recent price jumps for electricity and gas will noticeably reduce the purchasing power of private households and lead to a decline in private consumer spending”.