FOMC dot plot and central tendencies from September 2022 meeting. EOY 2022 4.4%

  • The dot plot for September 2022 shows the median rate at the end of 2022 at 4.4%, up from 3.4% in June 2022.
  • For 2023, the median Fed fund target rate is 4.6% vs. 3.8% in June 2022.
  • For 2024, the median Fed funds target rate is now 3.9% vs 3.4% in June 2022
  • The initial 2025 median rate is expected at 2.9%.

The dot plot for September 2022:

Dot plot for September 2022


The full policy statement from the September 2022 FOMC meeting

Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.

Russia’s war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3 to 3-1/4 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Esther L. George; Philip N. Jefferson; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.

Implementation Note issued September 21, 2022

Last Update: September 21, 2022

Why Day Trader is having an EGO ? – #AnirudhSethi

Day Traders are known as the EGO traders because they have Extreme Greed or Extreme Fear or both. Either way, they have an EGO problem and it’t not good for your trading account. The Ego is a universal human trait that we all share to some extent, but in the world of day trading it can be your worst enemy. When you get caught up in the ups and downs of being a trader, your ego can get in the way of making smart decisions about when to buy and sell stocks. The ego creates this friction between what we know logically as a trader should be doing and how we want to do things. In other words “Know thyself” is the best advice for a day trader. Let’s see why Day Trader has an EGO now:

Extreme Greed

Extreme greed is the number one enemy for day traders. It is the emotion that causes you to hold on to a stock and ride it up, up and up. It makes you think that once you get back to even on the trade, you will be able to sell and make a profit. You know that the stock is moving up, but you are so focused on getting back to even, you don’t pay attention to the signs that tell you the stock is peaking. The greed trap makes you think that if you get out now, you will miss out on the big profits that you know are just around the corner. Extreme greed is the emotion that keeps you in a losing position until it is too late.

Extreme Fear

Extreme fear is the emotion that makes you want to exit a trade as soon as you get in. It causes you to be impulsive and want to sell before the trade has a chance to work itself out. While extreme fear may seem like a good thing, as it can prevent you from being greedy and losing money, it can also prevent you from making money. Greed and fear are two sides of the same coin, they feed off each other and can have a devastating effect on your trading account. The best way to deal with the two emotions is to know when they are getting the best of you. You must learn to stay objective and calm in the face of these emotions.

Ego Traps

There are five ego traps that can trap a trader: – Ego Trapped – Really Wrong – Made out of Money – Fallacy of Confirmation – Ego Blindness Ego Trapped: This is when you have conviction in an idea or trade that you cannot shake, even when the evidence shows that it is wrong. You may have heard a tip that you think is great, but it may be too early to take advantage of it, so you put on the trade anyway because you want to get in before everyone else does. Really Wrong: This is when you refuse to change your mind after a trade has gone against you. You may have a reason for the trade that made sense at the time, but the market has proven that it was a bad decision. Instead of changing your mind, you dig your heels in and make the trade worse by adding to an already losing position. Made out of Money: This is when you have a big win and you think that you are now a better trader than ever before. You start making trades based on your new confidence and get too cocky for your own good. Fallacy of Confirmation: This is when you ignore the logical side of trading in order to hold on to a winning trade. You are so focused on the profit that you want to make on the trade, that you ignore the signs that tell you to get out. Ego Blindness: This is when you are so focused on a trade that you forget to pay attention to the other things that happen in the market.


The ego is a fragile and delicate thing, yet it can wreak havoc on your trading. In order to trade successfully, you must learn to tame the ego. You must learn when to act on emotion and when to ignore it. The best way to do this is to know thyself. The best way to avoid all the problems caused by an out-of-control ego is to know thyself. You must be honest with yourself, so you can recognize when your ego is taking over. You must learn to stay objective, even when the market is screaming at you to make a trade.

Sweden’s central bank 100bp rate hike overnight

Sweden’s Riksbank has hiked rates by 100bp taking the repo rate to 1.75% – the biggest hike ever since the initial introduction of inflation targets.

ING had a rundown hitting the main points:

  • decision to hike by 1% was unanimous
  • prompted by the highest level of CPIF inflation since 1991 and the negative implication it could have on the upcoming wage negotiation which will lock in pay growth for the next three years.
  • Looking at officials’ new interest rate projections, they are signalling a further 25bp hike at the November meeting and that rates will be around 2.50% in mid-2023.
  • It looks like, as of now, with uncertainties regarding inflation remaining high throughout the winter, the bank accepts the housing market slowdown in the medium-short term, prioritising bringing down long-term inflation risk instead.

U.N. Secretary-General wants a wdinfall profit tax on energy firms

Antonio Guterres opening remarks at the U.N. General Assembly in New York on Tuesday, he has fossil fuel companies in his crosshairs:

  • fossil fuel industry, which is responsible for a large share of planet-warming gases, is “feasting on hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies and windfall profits while household budgets shrink and our planet burns”
  • urged richer countries to tax the profits of energy companies and redirect the funds to both “countries suffering loss and damage caused by the climate crisis” and those struggling with the rising cost of living
  • “It is high time to put fossil fuel producers, investors and enablers on notice. Polluters must pay,”

Info via AP, link here.

US equity close: Not a pretty picture but off the lows

US equities touched a two-month low early on but recovered from the worst levels of the day to finish above the lows from Friday and Monday. That’s little comfort ahead of a pivotal Fed decision and with bonds slumping.

  • S&P 500 -44 points, or 1.1%, to 3855
  • Nasdaq -0.9%
  • Russell 2000 -1.4%
  • DJIA -1.0%
  • Toronto TSX Comp -0.9%

The good news is that the best days of the year to own stocks are Fed decision days. Psychologically, people fear the worst and if there’s any silver of good news, it leads to some relief. The sun will come up on Thursday, no matter what Powell says tomorrow.

SPX daily

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