Fed hikes ahead: Nov: 75bp, Dec 50, Jan/Feb 25. Recession probability now above 50%

Via a research piece from Bank of Montreal, this in brief:

  • The risk of a North American recession over the next year has now climbed above 50%.
  • a moderate downturn in the first half of 2023 in both the U.S. and Canadian economies

Forecasts for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC):

  • we are now expecting a 75 bp hike in November
  • 50 bps in December
  • and 25 bps at the first meeting in 2023
  • taking the funds rate to a peak of 4.50%-to-4.75% early next year, a net addition of 25 bps at each one of those three meetings. And then we expect that rate to hold through 2023.

More of this to come then?

usd dxy 27 September 2022
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