Archives of “March 2021” month

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NY Times reports the US is planning a series of covert strikes on Russian networks

  
  Analysis

Not so covert now of course its in the NYT, right?

In brief:
  • Biden administration plans to begin retaliating against Russia for the large-scale hacking of American government agencies and corporations discovered late last yea
  • first major move is expected over the next three weeks
  •  a series of covert counterstrikes on Russian networks that are intended to be evident to President Vladimir V. Putin and his intelligence services and military but not to the wider world
  • US officials said the strikes would be combined with some kind of economic sanctions … and an executive order from Mr. Biden to accelerate the hardening of US federal government networks
Not so covert now of course its in the NYT, right?

Currencies are higher against the USD after weekend US (more) stimulus news

  
  Analysis

The US dollar is lower, as is yen, on the flows to ‘risk’ following the news out of the US over the weekend:

  • US Senate passes $1.9 trillion stimulus bill

The bill will be voted on Tuesday in the House of Representatives where it is expected to pass easily.

AUD, NZD, GBP, CAD (for more impact on CAD see below) are all up a little from earlier levels.
Other weekend news has sent oil higher:
  • Oil prices have moved higher following the attacks on Saudi facilities on the weekend
ICYMI:
  • Oil traders note – Saudi oil export ports, facilities targeted in attacks Sunday

Morgan Stanley says US economy is on fire, the recession … ‘its over’

  
  Analysis

A snippet from a MS Sunday client note

Morgan Stanley cite:
  • the current speed of the vaccination rollout
  • new fiscal stimulus still to come (check this out: US Senate passes $1.9 trillion stimulus bill)
  • imminent spring weather
And say:
  • it’s difficult not to imagine an economy that’s on fire later this year
  • and long story short is the recession is effectively over
—
Bond markets have been saying this for weeks, yep.

PIMCO says developed economies may require stimulus for longer than currently appreciated because of China winding back stimulus

  
Analysis, Economy

Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) is a US firm that manages circa US$1.9 trillion in assets.

The firm have a publicly available piece posted in which they argue:
  • The  People’s Bank of China have announced it has begun to reduce coronavirus-related stimulus early
  • policy tightening in China is already being felt domestically in the form of tighter money market liquidity, moderating private credit growth, and reduced government bond issuance
  • PBOC is targeting overall credit to grow in line with nominal GDP, implying the credit impulse will fall to around -3.5% of GDP by year-end, from a peak above 9% in the fourth quarter of 2020. All else equal, this may slow China’s economic activity to below-trend levels by late 2022.
One of the key implications PIMCO cites is:
  • China provides a key engine of global growth … If past is prologue, developed countries may be required to maintain stimulus measures for longer than presently expected.
Here is the link if you want to read quite a bit more.
Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) is a US firm that manages circa US$1.9 trillion in assets.

Oil traders note – Saudi oil export ports, facilities targeted in attacks Sunday

  
Analysis, Crude

Saudi Arabia says ports and other facilities have been targeted by drones and missile strikes but has assured that damage is minimal.

A spokesman at the Ministry of Energy said
  • that one of the petroleum tank farms at the Ras Tanura Port in the Eastern Regio was attacked by a drone
  • another attempt was also made later to attack Saudi Aramco’s facilities
  • shrapnel from a ballistic missile fell near Saudi Aramco’s residential area in the city of Dhahran
  • said that both attacks did not result in any injury or loss of life or property
Other reports are that oil is still being loaded at Ras Tanura and a tanker has berthed at the facility after the earlier attacks.
Oil traders should be wary of a price pop on the news, although it does seem (according to the official reports at least) that there will be minimal, if any, disruption.
Saudi Arabia says ports and other facilities have been targeted by drones and missile strikes but has assured that damage is minimal.
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