Archives of “March 2021” month

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China February M2 money supply +10.1% vs +9.4% y/y expected

  
  Analysis

Latest Chinese credit data for February has been released – 10 March 2021

  • Prior +9.4%
  • New yuan loans ¥1,360.0 bn vs ¥950.0 bn expected
  • Aggregate financing ¥1,710.0 bn vs ¥910.0 bn expected

Broad money growth kept on the higher side last month as Chinese authorities worked to keep liquidity and credit at sufficient amid the Lunar New Year holiday period. There isn’t much change to the big picture view though, as authorities are still trying to strike a fine balance in keeping a healthy supply of credit while keeping up deleveraging efforts.

Treasury yields keep a little higher to start the session

  
  Analysis

The overall market mood remains more tentative though

The 10-year Treasury auction will be a key focus point in the market today and until then, we may get very little clues on which direction investors will be leaning on today.
USGG10YR
10-year yields are up 2.5 bps to 1.55% at the highs for the day but are still keeping lower relative to levels seen earlier on Monday this week, closer to 1.60% at the time.
Elsewhere, US futures have trimmed declines to stay little changed now while the dollar is holding slight gains but not really pushing the agenda all too much on the session.
It is shaping up to be one of those days where the market will only start to get busy once we clear event hurdles in US trading – being US CPI data and the Treasury auction.

More on China’s yearly GDP targets … clearing the confusion?

  
Analysis, Economy

Chinese media (Caixin) with a piece saying that despite the government not proposing to set targets for 2021 through 2025, targets have not been wholly scrapped.

Referring to remarks from Hu Zucai, deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission.
HU says a numerical target for GDP growth has been abandoned. On the other hand, Premier Li Keqiang told the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress on Friday that the government is proposing a GDP growth target of “above 6%” for 2021. Which sounds like a target to me?
Anyway, back to Hu:
  • There are other quantified targets — indicators like unemployment and carbon emissions that carry implications for the overall economic growth rate. The aim is to keep average annual growth in a “reasonable range” and to set a goal each year that is appropriate for the country’s economic situation at the time, he said, citing the draft outline of the plan.
  • Policymakers are aiming to keep the increase in annual GDP in line with the economy’s potential growth rate, Hu said
Here is the link for more (may be gated). See if you can make sense of it.
Chinese media (Caixin) with a piece saying that despite the government not proposing to set targets for 2021 through 2025, targets have not been wholly scrapped.

For a preview of how the US will trade on Wednesday be sure to be watching China in the hours ahead

  
  Analysis

The Tuesday surge in the US was pre-empted by Chinese intervention in stock markets in China yesterday.

The Chinese ‘national team’ (State funds leading) bought heavily as Chine3se indexes slumped, as posted in real-time here during the Asia timezone.
Stay tuned to see what they do today! Its going on to 5.30am in China right now, the State fund traders are mainlining coffee in preparation for a big Wednesdayt!
The turnaround in the CSI300 as posted in yesterday’s Asia wrap:
The Tuesday surge in the US was pre-empted by Chinese intervention in stock markets in China yesterday.

US stocks close higher across the board. Nasdaq leads the way.

  
Analysis, US Market
#  #

Some selling into the close.

The US stocks are closing higher on the day with the Nasdaq leading the move higher.  The Dow, which has been the leader in the short term, has closed higher but lagged today.
  • Nasdaq has the best November. Closes 8% below record high
  • Dow closes 1% from all time high
  • S&P closed less than 2% from the all time high
  • Dow posts 3-day win streak
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P is closing up 54.10 points or 1.42% at 3875.46
  • The Nasdaq is closing up 464.66 points or 3.69% at 13073.82. The high reached 4.30%
  • The Dow rose +30.30 points or 0.10% at 31832.74. The high reached 347 points or 1.09% at the highs

EIA sees US crude oil production rising to 12 mbpd in 2022

  
Analysis, Crude

The latest forecasts from the US Energy Information Administration

The latest forecasts from the US Energy Information Administration
The EIA sees US crude production at 12.02 mbpd in 2022 compared to its forecast of 11.53 mbpd a month ago. That’s a reaction to higher prices.
This year’s production is less-sensitive at 11.15 mbpd vs 11.02 mbpd previously.
On the comsumption side, EIA forecasts that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 97.5 million b/d for all of 2021 (-60k bpd), which is up by 5.3 million b/d from 2020. EIA forecasts that consumption will increase by another 3.8 million b/d in 2022 to average 101.3 million b/d (+330k bpd).
WTI crude is down 91-cents to $64.16 today.

Major European indices end the day with gains

  
Analysis, Global Indices

German DAX closes at a record level.

The German DAX is closing at another record high for the second day in a row. The other major European indices are also closing higher for the day.

German DAX closes at a record level._
 A snapshot of the provisional closes shows:

  • German DAX, +0.6%
  • France’s CAC, +0.5%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +0.3%
  • Spain’s IBEX, +0.75%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.75%
In other markets as London/European traders look to exit:
  • Spot gold +$32.10 or 1.91% at $1715.53.
  • Spot silver plus $0.84 or 3.37% $25.97
  • WTI crude oil futures down $0.85 or -1.3% at $64.20
  • Bitcoin up $2460 or 4.75% at $54,338
In the US stock market, the major indices are higher but the NASDAQ leading the way:
  • S&P index +68.5 points or 1.79% at 3889.65
  • NASDAQ index up 424 points or 3.37% at 13033.50
  • Dow industrial average up 262 point sort 0.83% at 32065
In the US that market, yields are lower. The U.S. Treasury will auction off three year notes at 1 PM ET:
  • 2 year 0.166%, +0.4 basis points
  • 5 year 0.832%, -2.0 basis points
  • 10 year 1.552%, -3 point basis points
  • 30 year 2.275%, -4.0 basis points
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