Archives of “February 6, 2020” day

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Global PMI hit a ten-month high in January

  
Analysis, Economy

ICYMI, the J. P. Morgan Global PMI Composite Output Index hit 52.2, taking it to a 10 mth high

  • from 51.6 in December
  • (says the report –  It should be noted that the majority of the January PMI survey data were collected before the nCoV outbreak.)
Keeping in mind the impact that the virus will have ahead this is nevertheless a piece of good news. Better to be into economic headwinds in a better place than a worse one.
Comments from JPM:
  • “The global economy started 2020 on a stronger footing, with output growth rising for the third straight month to its highest since March of last year suggesting global growth at an-above potential pace. However, we brace ourselves for a much weaker outcome this quarter as the outbreak of the nCoV virus disrupts activity in China and potentially around the world. Encouragingly, the gains in the PMI were not just confined to the Output Index, with trends in new orders, business sentiment and employment also firming.”
ICYMI, the J. P. Morgan Global PMI Composite Output Index hit 52.2, taking it to a 10 mth high

Fitch says the ongoing coronavirus outbreak will dampen economic growth in China this year

  
  Analysis

Fitch ratings

  • ongoing coronavirus outbreak will dampen economic growth in China this year
  • if Chinese govt were to launch a large-scale stimulus to offset effects of coronavirus, it could have adverse effect on other policy goals
  • still too early to make definitive adjustments to China’s GDP forecasts at this stage & instead have examined some illustrative scenarios
  •  huge uncertainties remain over impact of coronavirus on China’s economy
  • says China govt only likely launch large-scale stimulus if economic impact of virus proves substantially larger than SARS outbreak in 2003
  • if epidemic is not contained until well into Q2 growth could fall more steeply, China GDP growth in Q1 could be closer to 3%
more to come

China updates total coronavirus cases to 28,018 (from 24,324 yesterday)

  
  Analysis

National Health Commission with the updated figures for mainland China as of end February 5, more than 3.5K new cases yesterday

  • Jan 17: 41
  • Jan 19: 62
  • Jan 20: 201
  • Jan 21: 291
  • Jan 22: 440
  • Jan 24: 830
  • Jan 25: 1,287
  • Jan 26: 1,975
  • Jan 27: 2,744
  • Jan 28: 5,974
  • Jan 29: 7,711
  • Jan 30: 9,692
  • Jan 31: 11,791
  • Feb 1: 14,380 (number of dead across the country 304)
  • Feb 2: 17,205 (number of deaths 361)
  • Feb 3: 20,438 (death toll 425)
  • Feb 4: 24,324 total cases, 490 deaths
  • Feb 5: 28,018 (death toll up by 73, now 563)

Airline Cathay Pacific is asking its 27,000 workers to take 3 weeks off without pay

  
  Analysis
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Cathay is a Hong Kong carrier, citing a “significant” drop in demand for flights caused by the coronavirus outbreak.

  • wants staff to take 3 weeks of  unpaid leave
  • between March 1 and the end of June
Examples of the economic impact the virus are mounting.

Russia is not supporting a deeper output OPEC+ cut – report

  
Analysis, Crude
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Reuters report

Russia is not supporting a deeper oil output cut and prefers and extension of the current pact, according to Reuters sources.
WTI briefly dipped below $50.50 on the headline.
Russia was grandstanding against the December cut before it fell in line. All that said, the only one who is really cutting is Saudi Arabia. The Russian ‘cut’ is the usual cold weather slowdown.

US Indices add to their gains. Nasdaq/S&P close at record levels

  
Analysis, US Market
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S&P just misses making a new all time intraday high today (short by $0.19)

The US stocks are closing up for the 3rd day in a row.
The NASDAQ index is closing at a session high and reached an intraday all-time high of 9574.936.
The S&P index reached a high price of 3337.58. That was just short of the all-time high price of 3337.77. So it was just short of that level. However, it is closing at an all-time record high taking out the previous high from January 17 at 3329.62.
The Dow is still below its all-time high, but it was the biggest mover today.
The levels at the close are showing:
  • S&P index +37.13 points or 1.13% at 3334.71
  • Nasdaq index +40.71 points or 0.43% at 9508.68
  • Dow up 483.09 points or 1.68% at 29290.73
Big winners for the day included:
  • Chubb, +7.06% the
  • Unitedhealth, +5.31%
  • IBM, +4.85%
  • Exxon Mobil, +4.64%
  • Emerson, +3.85%
  • United Airlines, +3.7%
  • Boeing, +3.66%
  • Bank of America, +3.24%
  • 3M, +3.21%
  • Chevron, +3.21%
  • travelers, +3.14%
  • Citigroup, +3.08%
  • Caterpillar, +2.89%
  • Intel, +2.89%
  • DuPont, +2.64%
  • Charles Schwab, +2.48%
  • General Dynamics, +2.47%
Losers today the included:
  • Tesla, -17.04%
  • Ford Motor, -9.54%
  • Lyft, -3.82%
  • Chipotle, -3.5%
  • Square, -3.07%
  • Walt Disney, -2.35%
  • Gilead, -2.28%
  • Twitter, -1.77%
  • Chewy, -1.65%
  • AliBaba, -1.21%
  • Starbucks, -0.93%
  • Amazon, -0.52%
  • Tencent, -0.45%
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