Archives of “February 5, 2020” day

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More details on the Chinese report on drugs said to treat the new coronavirus earlier

  
  Analysis
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The two drugs are arbidol and darunavir

(h/t @ Eunice Yoon, CNBC)

Both of which are said to inhibit the new coronavirus, according to researchers at the Zhejiang University. Lead scientists are recommending the drugs to be used in China’s National Health Commission’s official protocol although the commission warns that so far, there is no confirmed effective treatment still.

Just doing a little digging on the surface here, arbidol isn’t really a common drug outside of Russia and China and is not an FDA-approved treatment for influenza.
As for darunavir, it has been used to treat HIV/AIDS cases alongside other antiretrovirals such as ritonavir – currently on the NHC’s protocol list.

Eurozone January final services PMI 52.5 vs 52.2 prelim

  
Analysis, Economy

Latest data released by Markit – 5 February 2020

  • Composite PMI 51.3 vs 50.9 prelim
The preliminary report can be found here. The upwards revisions to the initial estimates are positive surprises and they continue to reaffirm the recovery seen in Germany for now.
The overall outlook still points to sluggish growth but at least there are signs that things may be improving this year and the hope for the euro is that it will translate into hard data.

BREAKING : China also says have found effective drug to treat people with new coronavirus

  
  Analysis
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According to Chinese television, being reported across social media

It says that the research team at Zhejiang University has found an effective drug to treat people with the new coronavirus. This isn’t making main news wires just yet but we will see.
Risk is jumping higher on the headlines here with USD/JPY getting a brief spike from 109.40 to 109.72 before settling a little lower. Treasury yields also jumped higher with 10-year yields rising to 1.639% before ticking back a little lower now to 1.620%.

Dr Copper recovers from coronavirus fears

  
  Analysis

The Doctor is feeling perkier

Looking at the initial fall in commodities vs the fall in the Asian Weighted Index on coronavirus fears you can see how far commodities fell and how quickly. They fell much harder than equities.
The Doctor is feeling perkier
Now that we are seeing a global rebound in equity prices with the Nasdaq making record highs yesterday and Asia in the green too it is worth looking at copper futures. You can see Copper is trying to hold that key support level marked on the weekly chart around the 2.500 handle. As momentum indicators turn positive I am expecting buyers from here, pullbacks into support and stops below recent lows. Copper has a long way to potentially recover if the market suddenly refocuses back on to pre-coronavirus optimism. Although European equity futures are in the red, and it remains to be seen whether there really is a global equity recovery, keep copper on your radar. The Doctor has a good way to recover if he shakes off his recent coronavirus hit.
Copper

Bank of Thailand cuts key rate to 1.00% from 1.25%

  
  Analysis
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The Thai central bank continues to take more measures to counteract the strengthening baht and potentially weaker economy this year

Expectation going into the decision was a bit of a 50-50, amid recent fears surrounding the Chinese economy and the virus outbreak.

The central bank says that the vote was unanimous and that 2020 economic growth may be below forecast as the coronavirus outbreak looks set to hurt the economy.

For some context, Thailand is an extremely popular tourist destination for Chinese travelers and it relies very heavily on its tourism industry to prop up its economy.
At the same time, officials are also saying that the Thai baht has weakened but is still not in line with fundamentals. That brings us back to this issue pointed out at the start of the year.

USD/THB has risen on the decision to 31.25 but is just off the highs at the moment:
BOT

Japan confirms 10 people on cruise ship have coronavirus

  
  Analysis
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The cruise ship industry is going to have a rough time

The cruise ship industry is going to have a rough time
Japan has confirmed around 10 more cases of coronavirus among passengers on a cruise ship that had 3,700 people aboard and is now quarantined in Yokohama.
The 10 sick patients from the Diamond Princess were transferred to hospital and the remainder have been held aboard.
The infections all appear to have stemmed from a man who boarded the ship on Jan 20 and disembarked on Jan 25, according to NHK.
The new cases bring the total number of infections in the country to 33 and is a reminder at how quickly a single infection can spread, and how long it can take to have an impact. The ship visited five ports.
As for the remaining passengers, they are about to have their vacation extended by two weeks.

China updates total coronavirus cases to 24,324 (from 20,438 yesterday)

  
  Analysis
  Tags

National Health Commission with the updated figures as of end February 4

  • Jan 17: 41
  • Jan 19: 62
  • Jan 20: 201
  • Jan 21: 291
  • Jan 22: 440
  • Jan 24: 830
  • Jan 25: 1,287
  • Jan 26: 1,975
  • Jan 27: 2,744
  • Jan 28: 5,974
  • Jan 29: 7,711
  • Jan 30: 9,692
  • Jan 31: 11,791
  • Feb 1: 14,380 (number of dead across the country 304)
  • Feb 2: 17,205 (number of deaths 361)
  • Feb 3: 20,438 (death toll 425)
  • Feb 4: 24,324 total cases, 490 deaths

That 490 dead is on the ‘mainland’. Is HK included in the total then?

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While the toll continues to mount markets have been calmed by the actions of authorities. More info on this here.
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