Archives of “November 2019” month

rss

Chinese press continues to highlight barriers to trade deal

  
  Analysis

SCMP highlights change in tone of phone call

The phase one trade deal between China and the US “faces a number of barriers” according to a new report in the South China Morning Post.
The size of agricultural purchases and IP protections remain stumbling blocks. They also highlight that the readout from the latest phone call included a notable change.
“Neither side used language such as making ‘substantial progress’ or ‘reaching consensus’ — something they have done after previous calls.
The report doesn’t cite any sources but instead highlights ‘observers’ so I wouldn’t take this as anything new, but it’s getting some attention in markets and adding to the negative tone.

Powell met with Trump and Mnuchin at the White House on Monday

  
  Analysis

Meeting was at President’s invitation

The Fed reports that Powell did not discuss his expectations for monetary policy. Here’s the full statement:

At the President’s invitation, Chair Powell met with the President and the Treasury Secretary Monday morning at the White House to discuss the economy, growth, employment and inflation.

Chair Powell’s comments were consistent with his remarks at his congressional hearings last week. He did not discuss his expectations for monetary policy, except to stress that the path of policy will depend entirely on incoming information that bears on the outlook for the economy.

Finally, Chair Powell said that he and his colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee will set monetary policy, as required by law, to support maximum employment and stable prices and will make those decisions based solely on careful, objective and non-political analysis.

Tough to read anything into this.

Mood in Beijing on trade deal is pessimistic – report

  
Analysis, Forex
#  #  #  #

USD/JPY down on the headlines

Risk trades are under pressure after this report from CNBC’s Beijing correspondent Eunice Yoon:

Mood in Beijing about #trade deal is pessimistic, government source tells me. China troubled after Trump said no tariff rollback. (China thought both had agreed in principle.) Strategy now to talk but wait due to impeachment, US election. Also prioritize China economic support.

Dollar weakness among the trends to watch for next year – Morgan Stanley

  
Analysis, Forex
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Strategists at Morgan Stanley view that betting on a weaker dollar will be among the top trades for 2020

Dollar

In a client note detailing the trends to keep an eye out for next year, strategists at the firm view that the dollar is to be hit by stronger global growth outside of the US and dwindling portfolio inflows.

They argue that the greenback will fall against the pound, euro and kiwi dollar while also recommending to short the dollar against the Indian rupee in the EM space.
GBP/USD
Cable should “rally sharply by Q1 2020 as an orderly Brexit path becomes clearer, prompting foreigners to lift their GBP hedges and invest in undervalued GBP assets”. Target 1.40 in Q1 2020 before ending 2020 at 1.35.
EUR/USD
“Narrowing US-Europe growth differentials” and improving political factors should see the euro rally against the dollar. Target Q1 2020 and end of the year at 1.16.
NZD/USD
Recommends taking up a long position in the pair as they see Chinese and global growth improving. Target of 0.69 by mid-2020.

20 risks to markets in 2020 – Use them to make profit

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #

Watch out for those risks

What exactly are the risks to the markets that you should pay attention to? The chief economist of Deutsche Bank Torsten Slok has prepared a list of top 20 risks to global markets in 2020. Each one of them may trigger a downtrend.

  1. Continued increase in wealth inequality, income inequality and healthcare inequality.
  2. Phase one trade deal remains unsigned, continued uncertainty about what comes after phase one.
  3. Trade war uncertainty continued to weigh on corporate capex decisions.
  4. Ongoing slow growth in China, Europe and Japan Triggering significant US dollar appreciation.
  5. Impeachment uncertainty & possible government shutdown.
  6. US election uncertainty; implications for taxes, regulation and capex spending.
  7. Antitrust, privacy and tech regulation.
  8. Foreigners lose appetite for US credit and US Treasuries following Presidential election.
  9. MMT-style fiscal expansion boosts growth significantly in US and/or Europe.
  10. US government debt levels begin to matter for long rates.
  11. Mismatch between demand and supply in T-bills , another repo rate spike.
  12. Fed reluctant to cut rates in an election year.
  13. Credit conditions tighten with more differentiation between CCC and BBB corporate credit.
  14. Credit conditions tighten with more differentiation between CCC and BBB consumer credit.
  15. Fallen angels: More companies falling into BBB. And out of BBB into HY.
  16. More negative-yielding debt sends global investors on renewed hunt for yield in US credit.
  17. Declining corporate profits means fewer dollars available for buybacks.
  18. Shrinking global auto industry a risk for global markets & economy.
  19. House price crash in Australia, Canada and Sweden.
  20. Brexit uncertainty persists.

Bundesbank: No reason to fear that Germany would slide into recession

  
Analysis, Economy
#  #  #  #

Comments by the Bundesbank in its latest monthly report

Germany
  • Domestic economy will probably continue to provide momentum
  • Manufacturing downturn could be leveling off
  • The slowdown is not likely to intensify markedly
  • The slowdown will probably continue in Q4 2019
  • The overall economic output could more or less stagnate
I think the thing that stands out the most for me here is the way that they are communicating the message rather than the message itself.
Take note of the words used: probably, likely, could. Now, that’s not exactly what I would call exuding confidence, not even the slightest. It sort of contradicts their main statement of having “no reason” to fear a recession.
Go to top