Archives of “October 8, 2019” day

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Hong Kong leader Lam says cannot say under what circumstances she’d call on China central government

  
Analysis, Politics
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Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam comments from press conference.

  • says there is no bottom line for protesters’ violent acts
  • says amount of visitors during ‘golden week’ fell by 50%
  • appeals to developers and landlords to offer relief to retailers
  • says aims for fair district elections, although current atmosphere is complex
  • says an objective of the anti-mask law is to let youth know not to participate in these political actions
  • she has no plans to use the emergency regulation ordnance for introduction of other laws
  • it is still too early to say if the anti-mask law is ineffective
  • using the emergency powers was a very difficult decision
  • anti-mask law still valid and effective at this time
  • upcoming policy address will not be the “usual comprehensive” address
  • says there is widespread support for the anti-mask law
  • says no foreign government should think these are peaceful protests
  • says believes Q3 economic figures will surely be very bad
  • she did not meet any central govt officials to talk about business while in Beijing for national day holiday
  • says she still feels HK should find solutions on its own, and central govt holds same view
  •  says cannot say under what circumstances Hong Kong would call on central govt

The HKD is on the weak side, but not threatening the band as yet:

Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam comments from press conference. 

Japan Balance of Payment Current Account for August

  
Analysis, Economy

Despite trade woes Japan has inflows from offshore investments.

BoP Current Account Balance Y 2157.7bn

  •  expected Y 2069.5bn, prior Y 1999.9bn

BoP Current Account Adjusted 1720.3bn yen

  • expected Y 1682.1bn, prior Y 1647.1bn

Trade Balance BoP basis 50.9bn yen

  • expected Y 34.6bn, prior Y -74.5bn
As I said in the preview of today’s economic calendar none of the Japanese data was likely to move the yen too much. Which is not an out on a limb forecast by any stretch, I’ll admit. Anyway, yeah. yen barely moving so far. 10 point range or so.

Ahead of the FOMC minutes this week, a forecast of an October rate cut

  
Analysis, US Market
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UBS are citing the US slowdown to potentially arrive sooner than expected

  • Which, they say, opens the door to a Fed funds rate cut in October.
(Federal Open Market Committee meeting is October 29 and 30)
Citing trade tension with China –  a substantial shock to the economy – tariffs causing a slump in private demand
  • tarfifs weakening employment in manufacturing, retail
Following that the bank expects further cuts in:
  • January, March and June 2020
  • And also say that due to the run of recent data there is risk is to the downside for the Fed to cut more.

US stocks end near the lows but give up gains

  
Analysis, US Market
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Early declines still holding the lows

The US stocks are ending the day near, but above) the day’s lows (from earlier in the day) but they gave up gains in the processs in what was an up and down day.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P index fell -13.22 points or -0.45% at 2938.79. The high reached 2959.75. The low extended to 2935.68
  • The NASDAQ index fell -26.181 points or -0.33% at 7956.29. The high reached 8013.316. The low extended to 7942.08
  • The down industrial average fell -95.70 points or -0.36% at 26478. The high reached 26655.84. The low extended to 26424.54

The NASDAQ index closed below its 100 day moving average at 7967.39. The index close back above that MA on Friday. Failure to keep the momentum to the upside going is a disappointment for the bulls.

The S&P index remains above its 100 day moving average at 2928.07, but is closing below its 50 day moving average at 2940.64
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