Archives of “February 2019” month

rss

"Governments Control Markets; There Is No Price Discovery Anymore"-Must Watch Video

  
Analysis, Education, Video
#  #  #  #  #  #  #

In this 38 minute interview Lars Schall, for Matterhorn Asset Management, speaks with Dr Pippa Malmgren, a US financial advisor and policy expert based in London. Dr Malmgren has been a member of the U.S. President’s Working Group on Financial Markets (a.k.a. the “Plunge Protection Team”). They address, inter alia:

  • Malmgren’s recent book “Signals: the breakdown of the social contract and the rise of geopolitics”;
  • the “inflation vs deflation” debate
  • the closer ties between Russia and China
  • the future of the Euro
  • Germany’s gold reserves
  • and the phenomenon of “financial repression”
  • Moreover, Dr Malmgren explains what she foresees as the endgame of the financial crisis.

Trading Lessons

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

  • Don’t sacrifice your position for fluctuations.
  • Don’t expect the market to end in a blaze of glory. Look out for warnings.
  • Don’t expect the tape to be a lecturer. It’s enough to see that something is wrong.
  • Never try to sell at the top. It isn’t wise. Sell after a reaction if there is no rally.
  • Don’t imagine that a market that has once sold at 150 must be cheap at 130.
  • Don’t buck the market trend.
  • Don’t look for the breaks. Look out for warnings.
  • Don’t try to make an average from a losing game.
  • Never keep goods that show a loss, and sell those that show a profit. Get out with the least loss, and sit tight for greater profits.

  • Fear: fearful of profit and one acts too soon.
  • Hope: hope for a change in the forces against one.
  • Lack of confidence in ones own judgment.
  • Never cease to do your own thinking.
  • A man must not swear eternal allegiance to either the bear or bull side.
  • The individual fails to stick to facts!
  • People believe what it pleases them to believe.

Now ,Iam Reading

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #

I am reading two of the best books: Master Trader by Laszlo Birinyi and and Where We Lived by Jack Larkin and one of the worst ever, Forecast by Mark Buchanan.
A disproportionate number of scholarly people have below average ability in spatial relations. I am one of them. I am reading Barrons’ “Mechanical Aptitude and Spatial Relations Test” to improve.
Ha. I now know what a tongue and groove pliers and an allen wrench is.

Manipulation of ebitda

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

If dropping “ebitda” into cocktail party conversation makes you feel like a globetrotting financier, there is something you should know. It makes you sound like a MBA twit-clone with a Hermès tie and two brain cells. A fuzzy proxy for cash flow, ebitda (for the uninitiated, earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) is the unit that investors and analysts reflexively use to talk about profit. (And what else do they talk about? Property?) It can mislead – but shouldn’t be abandoned.

The elegance of ebitda is that it comes straight off the income statement, and very high up on it where it should be purest. Coming ahead of interest expense, it is capital structure agnostic, and takes out recurring non-cash charges, too. But relying on the income statement alone ignores critical uses of cash that appear elsewhere – capital spending, changes in working capital, deferred revenue. Free cash flow captures these, but requires turning to another page of the financial report and is hard to forecast as it depends on the timing of payments. But in telecoms where capex is massive, in retail where inventories oscillate, or in software where revenue recognition is key, ebitda misses too much. (more…)

Go to top