Archives of “February 9, 2019” day
rssEd Seykota – “Everybody Gets What They Want From The Markets”
When Jack Schwagger interviewed legendary trend following trader Ed Seykota for his book “Market Wizards” in 1989, it’s clear he was not ready for the answers that Ed Seykota gave. Not many people are.
But by far the greatest and most provocative answer that Ed gave was that of “Everybody gets what they want out of the market”. Not only did it incite an almost angry response from Schwagger, it has confused and enlightened an entire generation of traders since.
The Famous Ed Seykota Interview
Jack Schwagger asks his interviewee: “Don’t all traders want to win?”
And Ed replies with: “Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market.
“I know one trader who seems to get in near the start of every substantial bull move and works his $10 thousand up to about a quarter of a million in a couple of months. Then he changes his personality and loses it all back again. This process repeats like clockwork. Once I traded with him, but got out when his personality changed. I doubled my money, while he got wiped out as usual. I told him what I was doing, and even paid him a management fee. He just couldn’t help himself. I don’t think he can do it any differently. He wouldn’t want to.
- “He gets a lot of excitement, he gets to be a martyr, he gets sympathy from his friends, and he gets to be the centre of attention. Also, possibly, he may be more comfortable relating to people if he is on their financial plane.
“On some level, I think he is really getting what he wants.”
Does This Sound Like Someone You Know? Maybe Someone You Know… Intimately?
Even back then, Ed Seykota had a fantastic grasp on the dangerous psychology pitfalls that almost every trader has to work through before they become a success in the markets.
So you need to ask yourself: (more…)
Dr. Alan Watkins – Being Brilliant Every Single Day- 2 Videos
The Art of Choosing
Sheena Iyengar studies how we make choices — and how we feel about the choices we make. At TEDGlobal, she talks about both trivial choices (Coke v. Pepsi) and profound ones, and shares her groundbreaking research that has uncovered some surprising attitudes about our decisions.
We all want customized experiences and products — but when faced with 700 options, consumers freeze up. With fascinating new research, Sheena Iyengar demonstrates how businesses (and others) can improve the experience of choosing.
When a speculation becomes "an investment"
The Traders Mindset
So far the Apprenticed Investor series has discussed a lot of don’ts. Don’t do this, don’t do that; avoid talking to these kinds of traders; don’t say or think these kinds of things.
Well, it’s time to shift gears, and since trading is an active enterprise, I’ll discuss some things you should do. I plan to expand on these ideas significantly in future episodes.
Taken together, the following 10 rules will not only help you with the philosophical grounding necessary for thoughtful — and successful — investing, they will help you avoid some of the more common mistakes made by investors and traders early in their careers.
This is the “Zen of Trading;” It is more than an overview — it’s an investment philosophy that can help you develop an investing framework of your own.
1. Have a Comprehensive Plan: Whether you are an investor or active trader, you must have a plan. Too many investors have no strategy at all — they merely react to each twitch of the market on the fly. If you fail to plan, goes the saying, then you plan to fail.
Consider how Roger Clemens approaches a game. He studies his opponent, constructs his game plan and goes to work.
Investors should write up a business plan, as if they were asking a Venture Capitalist for start-up money; just because you are the angel investor doesn’t mean you should skip the planning stages.
2. Expect to Be Wrong: We’ve discussed this previously, but it is such a key aspect of successful investing that it bears repeating. You will be wrong, you will be wrong often and, occasionally, you will be spectacularly wrong.
Michael Jordan has a fabulous perspective on the subject: “I’ve missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. Twenty six times, I’ve been trusted to take the game-winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.”
Jordan was the greatest ball player of all time, and not only because of his superb physical skills: He understood the nature and importance of failure, and placed it appropriately within a larger framework of the game.
The best investors have no ego tied up in a trade. Those who refuse to recognize the simple truism of “being wrong often” end up giving away unacceptable amounts of capital. Stubborn pride and lack of risk management allow egotists to stay in stocks down 30%, 40% or 50% — or worse.
3. Predetermine Stops Before Opening Any Position: Sign a “prenuptial agreement” with every stock you participate in: When it hits some point you have determined before you purchased it, that’s it, you’re out, end of story. Once you have come to understand that you will be frequently wrong, it becomes much easier to use stop-losses and sell targets.
This is true regardless of your methodology: It may be below support or beneath a moving average, or perhaps you prefer a specific percentage amount. Some people use the prior month’s low. But whatever your stop-loss method is, stick to it religiously. Why? The prenup means you are making the exit decision before you are in a trade — while you are still neutral and objective.
4. Follow Discipline Religiously: The greatest rules in the world are worthless if you do not have the personal discipline to see them through. I can recall every single time I broke a trading rule of my own, and it invariably cost me money.
RealMoney’s Chartman, Gary B. Smith, slavishly follows his discipline, and he notes that every time some hedge fund — chock full of Nobel Laureates and Ivy League whiz kids — blows up, the mea culpa is the same: If only we hadn’t overrode the system.
In Jack Schwager’s seminal book Market Wizards, the single most important theme repeated by each of the wizards was the importance of discipline. (more…)
The Simplicity on the Other Side of Complexity
Patience
No matter which mask you wore in May, June brings with it new opportunities and new perils. It is difficult sometimes to separate ourselves from the action, always afraid of missing the next great opportunity. But trust me when I say that learning patience is one of the greatest skills a trader can develop. Instead of coming into each trading day with an “I gotta make money” mentality, it would behoove traders to develop a more market-neutral attitude and focus on the process instead of the outcome. To that end, let me share some ideas that have helped me over the years to control the impulsivity that many traders find hard to control.