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Dormeier, Investing with Volume Analysis

In addition to his “real” job managing money, Buff Pelz Dormeier develops technical indicators. He shares some of the fruits of his—and his noteworthy predecessors’—labor in Investing with Volume Analysis: Identify, Follow, and Profit from Trends (FT Press, 2011).

When I started reading this book I suspected that it would be like so many others: long on generalities and short on actionable ideas. The first hundred pages or so do indeed deal with general relationships between price and volume, and some of the material is familiar. But even the familiar material is often presented in an unusual way. Here’s one example.

Newton’s second law of motion, reinterpreted to apply to financial markets, analyzes “how much volume (force) is required to move a security (the object) a given distance (price change) at a given speed (acceleration/momentum). … Richard Wyckoff referred to this principle as the law of effort versus result, which asserts that the effort must be in proportion to the results.” (p. 47) As a corollary of this law, “if more volume (force) is required to produce less price change (acceleration), then the stock is becoming overly bought or sold.” (p. 85)

In apparent contradiction to Wyckoff’s law of effort is the rule of trend volume, according to which “more volume substantiates a stronger trend.” (p. 85) Can these two principles be reconciled? Dormeier suggests that they can, once we bring the notions of strong hands and weak hands into the equation. His discussion is too detailed to summarize here, but it is premised on how strong hands and weak hands play the game. As he writes, “Strong hands buy out of an expectation of capital appreciation. Weak hands buy out of greed and the fear of missing out on an opportunity. Weak hands sell from the fear of losing capital. Strong hands sell to reinvest in better opportunities (which does not have to be other equities).” (p. 87)

Dormeier really hits his stride when he turns “general volume principles into indicators with numerical values.” (p. 113) These indicators have a dual mandate—to lead price and to confirm price. But they don’t all work the same way; they are “tools, each of which is designed to explain a distinct piece of the volume puzzle.” (p. 117) (more…)

Let the market make the decisions, not your ego.

The rules are not hard to understand. Recognizing a profit from a loss is simple. If the rules are easy to grasp and a profit is distinguishable from a loss, where does the problem lie? What makes it so hard to apply the rules? There is something within each of us that has a power over our minds that prevents our acting according to what we have agreed is the proper course of action. That something is present in all of us and is very powerful, more powerful than anything I know. Let’s call it ego. Until we learn to get rid of our ego, we will never make money in the market consistently. Those who haven’t identified the ego’s ways will eventually be destroyed in the market because of their ego’s tendencies. It is just that powerful. The market rewards those who have subdued their egos. Those who rid themselves of their egos are rewarded greatly. They are the superstars of their fields. In the market, rewards come in the form of profits. In the world of art, masterpieces are the results. In sports, the players are all-stars and command enormous salaries. Every pursuit has its own manifestation of victory over the ego.

India’s growth fails to reduce poverty; ranks 119, China 89

India has failed to make any significant improvement in its poverty figures, with over 400 million – more than the total in the poorest African nations – still struck in poverty, the Human Development Report 2010 said, listing India at the 119th position on the Human Development Index. Though India has jumped one position during the last five years, it continues to have high absolute poverty of people living below $1.25 per day along with high incidence of multidimensionality which is characterized by lack of access to health, education and living standards.

“Eight Indian states with poverty as acute as the 26 poorest African countries are home to 421 million multidimensionally poor people, more than the 410 million people living in those African countries combined,” says the report issued by the UN Development Programme.

At present about 1.75 billion people live in multi-dimensional poverty and 1.44 billion live below absolute poverty in the world. While Norway, Australia and New Zealand lead the the world in HDI achievement, Niger, Democratic Republic of Congo and Zimbabwe figure at the bottom of the pile among 169 countries in HDI – a composite national measure for health, education, and income.

In sharp contrast, China moved up the HDI ladder by 8 positions to occupy the 89th rank in the world during the last five years. China is now estimated to have 16% of its population living below $1.25 a day and 12% of the people caught in multidimensional poverty.

Since its inception in 1990, the UNDP’s Human Development Report has become a barometer to judge how countries are performing in improving the social, economic and political well-being of their population.

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