Archives of “warren buffett” tag

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Life's Unanswered Questions

  
  Education
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Help me out here…

Why do you check your stocks twice a day but your cholesterol twice a decade? The former is killing your emotions and the latter is killing you.

Why do companies still provide paper receipts? My grandma discovered email 15 years ago.

Why do companies limit the number of sick days employees can take? If you can’t trust me when I say I have bronchitis, you shouldn’t trust me to be your employee.

Why is 2008’s 35% market crash so memorable, but 2013’s 33% rally so forgettable?Answer this and you’ll be a better investor.

Why is it so much easier to fool yourself than other people? It is amazing to watch smart investors convince themselves of something that clearly isn’t true. (more…)

10 quotes from Warren Buffett’s letter to shareholders

  
  Education
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Warren Buffett is hunting for elephants and a bear.

You can look through the whole thing here, including as easily digested discussions of accounting as you’re ever likely to see.

But for those with limited time, here’s a look at 10 of the pithier comments.

1. On the search for new investment opportunities for Berkshire’s huge cash reserves after the acquisition of half of Heinz  HNZ -0.08% last month:

“Charlie and I have again donned our safari outfits and resumed our search for elephants.”

2. On strong performance at the GEICO insurance unit:

“The credit for GEICO’s extraordinary performance goes to Tony Nicely and his 27,000 associates. And to that cast, we should add our Gecko. Neither rain nor storm nor gloom of night can stop him; the little lizard just soldiers on, telling Americans how they can save big money by going to GEICO.com. When I count my blessings, I count GEICO twice.”

3. On company headcount:

“Berkshire’s yearend employment totaled a record 288,462, up 17,604 from last year. Our headquarters crew, however, remained unchanged at 24. No sense going crazy.” (more…)

Was Benjamin Graham Skillful or Lucky?

  
  Education
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Last weekend’s Intelligent Investor column looked at the extreme difficulties of disentangling skill from luck when you are evaluating investment performance. It’s the topic of an excellent new book by Michael Mauboussin and a subject of endless fascination – and frustration – to investors.

We tend to think of the greatest investors – say, Peter Lynch, George Soros, John Templeton, Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham – as being mostly or entirely skillful.

Graham, of course, was the founder of security analysis as a profession, Buffett’s professor and first boss, and the author of the classic book The Intelligent Investor. He is universally regarded as one of the best investors of the 20th century.

But Graham, who outperformed the stock market by an annual average of at least 2.5 percentage points for more than two decades, coyly admitted that much of his remarkable track record may have been due to luck.

In the Postscript chapter of The Intelligent Investor, Graham described “two partners” of an investment firm who put roughly 20% of the assets they managed into a single stock – a highly unusual departure for the conservative managers, who normally diversified widely and seldom invested more than 5% or so in any one holding. (more…)

Why Warren Buffett should be your role model

  
  Education
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WBSome people have claimed that Warren Buffett made all his money from the 80’s and 90’s bull market. He happened to be at the right place at the right time, they say.

If so, how come nobody came close? There were lots of people at the right place and right time like Buffett. They are what we call baby boomers!

It really isn’t about bull markets that Buffett made his money. He started out in the early 70’s. (The secular bull market started over 10 years after that).

The first few years, he was making 50-100% returns per year.

So if he were to do a redo, his results wouldn’t be that much different 40 years later.

Mr.Warren Buffett :Buy and Hold -Failed

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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From the wires today:

“OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — Warren Buffett’s company reported a 40 percent drop in second-quarter profit Friday because the improvement at Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s operating companies couldn’t overcome $1.4 billion in paper losses on derivative contracts. Berkshire’s strong performances from its railroad, insurance and manufacturing businesses was overshadowed by the plummeting value of the Omaha company’s derivatives — many of which are tied to the value of four major stock markets.”

From Buffett himself in 2002:

“The derivatives genie is now well out of the bottle, and these instruments will almost certainly multiply in variety and number until some event makes their toxicity clear. Central banks and governments have so far found no effective way to control, or even monitor, the risks posed by these contracts. In my view, derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal.”

From Bloomberg recently:

“Buffett’s well known for his criticism of derivatives. Yet Berkshire in recent years has become a big player, with some $60 billion in derivatives contracts. Under any new derivatives regulation, Berkshire would be likely to have to produce collateral for new derivatives contracts it writes. This would limit the attractiveness of new derivatives deals for Buffett, who has boasted that Berkshire rarely does a deal that calls for it to produce collateral. But that’s not why Buffett has been pushing back against the financial reform bill in the Senate. Instead, Buffett says he’s concerned that the legislation would impose collateral requirements on existing contracts — which he says would be illegal. Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., made the same case this week as he defected from the Democrats backing the financial reform bill. Whatever his logic, pushing back on derivatives reform has the interesting side effect of aligning Buffett, with his sterling reputation, with the widely derided Wall Street banks.”

Buy and hold? Buying strong businesses? Derivatives are weapons of mass destruction? Bailouts of many of the components of BRKA? Does anyone have the cajones to criticize Buffett? There has to be at least one emasculated weenie out there who will come on here and tell me that I can’t criticize America’s wealthiest just because he is rich. Right?

The Buffett myth is just that — a myth. If not for the fall 2008 bailouts, he would be on the senior circuit revising history along with Greenspan. Why my stark view on this lovely sunny morning in beautiful Southern California? Cause no matter how many books populate Amazon, all preaching about how you can become the next Buffett, they are all disingenuous fairy tales.

Warren Buffett Talks Markets, Healthcare, IBM, And Self-Driving Cars: The Key Quotes From Berkshire's "Pilgrimage"

  
Analysis, Education
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With the 52nd Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting – dubbed the “Woodstock for Capitalists” which is “unique in corporate America, a celebration of the billionaire’s image and success” – now in the history books, all that’s left are the quotes and avuncular aphorisms.

While Buffett and Munger covered a wide variety of topics, some headlines made a particular splash, such as Buffett’s statement that markets have a “casino characteristic” and that people “still succumb to speculative impulses”, while ignoring that a far more narrow subset of people will also get bailed out by the government when the speculative impulses lead to massive losses. Speaking of hypocrisy, Buffett also slammed Wells Fargo, of which he is the biggest shareholder, for failing to stop its employees from engaging in the bank’s scandalous cross-selling practices, saying you cannot “incentivize bad behavior”, even as it was Buffett’s support of current management and board that was key to ensuring the re-election of the entire board last month.

None of this had an impact on the thousands of shareholders and “value investors” who conducted their latest annual “pilgirmage” to see and hear the 86-year-old Oracle of Omaha.

 Hundreds of shareholders lined up early outside downtown Omaha’s CenturyLink Center for the meeting. Several said they got there nearly five hours before doors opened around 6:45 a.m.

 “Every year it seems I have to come earlier,” said Chris Tesari, a retired businessman from Pacific Palisades, California who said he arrived at 3:20 a.m. for his 21st meeting. “It’s a pilgrimage.”

While a full breakdown of the day’s main events can be found in the following link, for those pressed for time here is a summary of the key quotes and highlights, courtesy of Reuters:

ON OBAMACARE REPEAL

  • “Medical costs are the tapeworm of American economic competitiveness.
  • “Our health costs have gone up (incredibly) and will go up a lot more … that is a problem this society is having trouble with and is going to have more trouble with. It almost transcends (political party).
  • “If you talk about the world competitiveness of American industry, (health costs are) the biggest single variable where we keep getting more and more out of whack with the rest of the world.
  • “(The Obamacare repeal) is a huge tax cut for guys like me … either the deficit goes up or they get the taxes from someone else.”

ON BERKSHIRE’S DURABILITY

  • “I can’t think of anything that can harm Berkshire in a material, permanent way except weapons of mass destruction.
  • “If that ever happens, there’ll be more to worry about than the price of Berkshire.”

CHARLIE MUNGER ON PUERTO RICO (more…)

Stock Market Learning

  
  Education
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1. Read the works of Soros, Jesse Livermore, William O’Neill, Warren Buffett and Nick Darvis.
2. Choose one and copy exactly what they do.
3. See each stage they go through to reach their conclusions and the actions they take and the inferrences they derive from the outcomes.
4. Pick stocks and plan out the course of action and all the permutations of what will happen in all price scenarios and put them into practice.
5. Memorise the details of the great coups and all the rules the masters have made in trading.
6. Keep all your trading a secret and don’t let others’ views interfere with your own. Keep your mind totally on the facts at hand and the details of what you see.
7. Before going to sleep look at the coups of other traders and of your own. Talk with the masters you are studying and meet them in your mind for interviews.
8. When the markets are not open or the market isn’t acting right for you then study past trades and memorise the actions you took and piece together the trade again looking for the lesson.
9. Be a better trader than your teachers and ask yourself how you can do better.
10. When you have practiced and ‘perfected’ position entry, move to exits, patterns, money management, probability theory, etc..
11. Look at situations and look at them as you would a trade. What would you do? Are there any interesting things to learn here that can be used in the markets?
12. See what’s happening rather than guess.
13. Play games like the one played in Liar’s Poker, where you invent scenarios and ask each other what you would do in that situation. E.g. nuclear explosion in Tokyo…
14. Be aware of views you are taking on a trade. Look at it always as if it’s the first time you have seen it and review an open trade every day as if you have just placed it.

Price, The Conscious Investor

  
  Education
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John Price, author of The Conscious Investor: Profiting from the Timeless Value Approach (Wiley, 2011), began his career as a research mathematician and for thirty-five years taught math, physics, and finance at universities around the world. He then morphed into an entrepreneur, developing stock screening software that emulates Warren Buffett’s investing strategies. And, as is evident from this book, he didn’t neglect his writing skills. He proceeds with the analytical precision of a mathematician but with the facility and clarity of a careful wordsmith.

Price describes over twenty methods of valuation. He explains the circumstances in which each method is most appropriate. He also evaluates each method’s strengths and weaknesses.

Here I am going to confine myself to describing the screen that underlies Price’s own investing system. He focuses on earnings forecasts, offering objective methods in place of the strategies of analysts, which are tainted with behavioral biases. Critically, he screens to find companies that are actually amenable to growth forecasts. They share three characteristics. “The first two, stable growth in earnings and stable return on equity, are based on histories of financial data taken from the financial statements. The third one, strong economic moat, is based on the ability of the company to protect itself from competitors.” (p. 292) Since many readers will be familiar with Warren Buffett’s notion of moats, I will discuss only the first two characteristics and how to measure them.

Price developed a proprietary function called STAEGR which “measures the stability or consistency of the growth of historical earnings per share from year to year, expressed as a percentage in the range of 0 to 100 percent. … STAEGR of 100 percent signifies complete stability, meaning that the data is changing by exactly the same percentage each year. The function has the feature of adjusting for data that could overly distort the result, such as one-off extreme data points, negative data, and data near zero. It also puts more emphasis on recent data.” This function is “independent of the actual growth. This means that whether a company has high or low stability of earnings is independent of whether the earnings are growing or contracting. In this way the two measures, stability and growth, complement each other in describing qualities of historical earnings.” (p. 294) (more…)

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