Archives of “truth” tag

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Evidence Based Trading: Why Philosophy Matters

  
  Education
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A beautiful example of this is David Aronson’s new book, “Evidence-Based Technical Analysis”. It’s a well-written, thought-provoking text, with many practical examples of how to conduct data analysis in an objective way.

Starting with the premise that knowledge consists of statements that are found to be true, Aronson, writing in the positivist tradition of philosophy, excludes subjectivity as knowledge. He explains:

“The most important consequence of TA adopting the scientific method would be the elimination of subjective approaches. Because they are not testable, subjective methods are shielded from empirical challenge. This makes them worse than wrong. They are meaningless propositions devoid of information. Their elimination would make TA an entirely objective practice.” p. 148

This is bound to rub many traders the wrong way, but it’s an important challenge. What is knowledge? How do we know what we know in the markets? How can we demonstrate that knowledge is such, and not illusion?

Once we start with the premise that all knowledge consists of explicit propositions that can be tested for truth, we necessarily are led toward trading that is rule-based and rigorously backtested.

Is there another, *valid* form of knowledge and trading? Can we prove that?The late Ayn Rand emphasized that philosophy was the most practical of disciplines: it governs the ideas that lie behind all we do and think. The philosophical premises we assume affect how we approach trading.

Believe you can win

  
  Education
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If other traders can do well in the market, so can you. However, if you don’t have enough courage and confidence in yourself, you will never achieve success. The events over the past year have tested many people in this regard and some now think the game is rigged against them. Nothing could be farther from the truth as opportunities remain. Those who will win in the markets first start by believing they can do it. Then they back up that strong belief with serious hard-work and determination to find their trading edge. However, it starts with you first having faith in yourself.

Trading Quote

  
  Education
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wins-losses“There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that defines an edge. In other words, based on the past performance of your edge, you may know that out of the next 20 trades, 12 will be winners and 8 will be losers. What you don’t know is the sequence of wins and losses or how much money the market is going to make available on the winning trades. This truth makes trading a probability or numbers game. When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like “right” and “wrong” or “win” and “lose” no longer have the same significance. As a result, your expectations will be in harmony with the possibilities.”

"Some Rules for Living Applied to Trading"

  
  Education
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I ran across these rules for living, and thought they apply beautifully to the process of trading successfully.  They are as follows:

  1. Show up.
  2. Pay attention.
  3. Live your truth.
  4. Do your best.
  5. Don’t be attached to the outcome.

Show up.  Woody Allen has said 90% of the story is showing up.  And I think that can be true for trading.  Showing up means being prepared and ready before the market opens.  It means getting your entry and exit orders in the market in a timely fashion.  You’ve done your research, and you’re clear about your intentions.

Pay attention.    Watch the price action.  Be cognizant of what your chosen indicators are saying.  Know what news is breaking, and watch the market’s reaction to the news.  Be alert to twists and turns in market direction.  Don’t wander off mentally or physically.

Live your truth.  Your truth could be fundamental or technical or a combination of the two.  But if you don’t trade in accordance with your guidelines, you can get yourself on the wrong side of the situation and yourself.  Be who you say you are as a trader.  Are you honest, perceptive, courageous, steady, and disciplined?  Are you trading in the manner you have chosen or committed to trade.

Do your best.  Honestly, all you can do is your best.  But your best can get better as you practice and learn.  Learn from your mistakes, and forgive yourself past digressions.  Each day is a new day, and each day brings new opportunities.  It’s your job to capture what you can of the opportunities even as you rigorously protect your capital.

Don’t be attached to the outcome.  This is the hard part, and this is the essential part.  The results of any given trade or trading day are really not indicative of whether or not you will be profitable.  One trade or day is simply not the measure of success, and is really irrelevant.  If you’re showing up, and paying attention, and living your viable truth, and doing your best, you can accept whatever outcome develops.  Of course, if the outcome is disastrous over time, you need to go back to the drawing board and develop better methods.

Ray Dalio Principles

  
Education, Life
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Afew gems taken from Ray Dalio’s Principles. Here’s the link to the ‘Principles’ Ray Dalio founder of Bridgewater Associates published:

  • I remained wary about being overconfident, and I figured out how to effectively deal with my not knowing. I dealt with my not knowing by either continuing to gather information until I reached the point that I could be confident or by eliminating my exposure to the risks of not knowing.
  • While most others seem to believe that learning what we are taught is the path to success, I believe that figuring out for yourself what you want and how to get it is a better path.
  • How much do you let what you wish to be true stand in the way of seeing what is really true?
  • How much do you worry about looking good relative to actually being good?
  • The most important qualities for successfully diagnosing problems are logic, the ability to see multiple possibilities, and the willingness to touch people’s nerves to overcome the ego barriers that stand in the way of truth.
  • Know what you want and stick to it if you believe it’s right, even if others want to take you in another direction.
  • In a nutshell, this is the whole approach that I believe will work best for you—the best summary of what I want the people who are working with me to do in order to accomplish great things. I want you to work for yourself, to come up with independent opinions, to stress-test them, to be wary about being overconfident, and to reflect on the consequences of your decisions and constantly improve.

Typical Traits Of Top Traders

  
  Education
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Temperament – In general, people with more analytical and even tempered personalities make better traders.

There is a counterbalancing trait which is the willingness to take risks. Some traders with volatile temperaments are successful because they can take risks easily and can keep trading after getting knocked down. They also tend to blow up more often.

Character – Humility is a very important ingredient in trading success. The truth does not care what you think of yourself. The markets don’t care what you want to believe reality is. Trader’s that are humble are better able to examine their methods and trading objectively and make changes where appropriate.

I’ve known a lot of successful traders that most people might consider arrogant but when it comes down to their own success and the reasons for that success they were able to see the faults in themselves and their trading. The trader’s that were out of touch with reality tended to blow up and have short-lived success.

Intelligence – General intelligence is correlated with success but not as highly as you might think. The ability to discern patterns and relationships with limited information is very useful.

I’d say that you need to be relatively smart to be successful but not extremely smart. Smart enough to understand the principles but beyond that it doesn’t necessarily help you. I’ve seen many very smart people tie themselves up in knots by second-guessing themselves.

Social Skills – Most of the really successful traders are not very socially skilled. Many tend to be reclusive and introverted. There are some exceptions. (more…)

Best advice ever given

  
  Education
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A young man who worked for the great J.P. Morgan approached Mr. Morgan. Said the young man, “Mr. Morgan, may I have your advice. I own a portfolio of stocks and it’s not doing well, I can’t think, I can’t eat, I can’t sleep. I worry day and night. What do you think I should do?” Morgan with his fierce demeanor eyed the young man and growled, “SELL TO THE SLEEPING POINT.” That may be the best advice ever given regarding investing. The truth — I’ve often used it.

Trading Is War

  
  Education
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  • Are you easy prey? Or, do I have to fight you?
  • Are you trading without a plan? You have given me easy access.
  • Are you pyramiding your losses? You’re now making the payments on my beach house.
  • Are you distracted while you’re trading? Just go ahead and mail me your checkbook.

This business is war with every trade. Are you asleep at the wheel or are you going to fight? I really like taking your money. The choice is yours.

The truth is, I don’t know you from Adam. I’m probably not going to be on the other side of your trade. But, we ARE in battle with every trade. We DO have to prepare to fight or we’re an easy kill. We have to have a PLAN for using our WEAPONS on the field or we’re dead.

This blog entry is an intro to a series on system development. We’re going to walk through the steps to creating a realistic, functional plan for trading the markets. Then, we’re going to look at our weapons and how to use them most effectively when the edge is in our favor.

I will fight and win, will you?

Heads or Tails

  
  Education
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heads_111115t“There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that defines an edge. In other words, based on the past performance of your edge, you may know that out of the next 20 trades, 12 will be winners and 8 will be losers. What you don’t know is the sequence of wins and losses or how much money the market is going to make available on the winning trades. This truth makes trading a probability or numbers game. When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like “right” and “wrong” or “win” and “lose” no longer have the same significance. As a result, your expectations will be in harmony with the possibilities.”

Effectiveness Is the Measure of Truth

  
  Education
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In trading as in life, effectiveness has to be the measure of truth. If something doesn’t work, there is no point in continuing to do it. Misperceptions, false unconscious or conscious beliefs, and unhelpful behaviors can contaminate and desecrate your most sought after results.

Imagine the frustration of a trader who perceives that a market is changing direction when in fact it is persisting in its original thrust. Or consider, for further example, an investor who bought into the belief that buy and hold is a valid investment strategy. That investor had to have experienced devastating losses over the past year. Or ponder the trader who repeatedly fails to utilize stop losses and experiences numerous outsize losses because he won’t accept a loss.

When you choose effectiveness as your measure of truth, you can learn from your mistakes. You can make plans, take action, receive feedback, and assess the results. You can revise your plans, take new actions, receive new feedback, on and on, until you find a viable strategy that will work most of the time.

When you fear loss, when greed overcomes you, when you get reckless, or when you hesitate, you become grossly ineffective. When you’re confused or ambivalent yet think you need to take action, you do yourself no good. In each case you need to sort through your thoughts, develop a clear focus, search for the high probabilities, and take prompt and calm action. (more…)

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