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Trading Wisdom from Market Wizards

  
  Education
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Michael Marcus

“The best trades are the ones in which you have all three things going for you: fundamentals, technicals, and market tone. First, the fundamentals should suggest that there is an imbalance of supply and demand, which could result in a major move. Second, the chart must show that the market is moving in the direction that hte fundamentals suggest. Third, when news comes out, the market should act in a way that reflects the right psychological tone. For example, a bull market should shrug off bearish news. If you can restrict your activity to only those types of trades, you have to make money, in any market, under any circumstances.”

“I think to be in the upper echelon of successful traders requires an innate skill, a gift. It’s just like being a great violinist. But to be a competent trader and make money is a skill you can learn.”

“Perhaps the most important rule is to hold on to your winners and cut your losers. Both are equally important. If you don’t stay with your winners, you are not going to be able to pay for the losers.”

Bruce Kovner

“The more a price pattern is observed by speculators, the more prone you are to have false signals. The more a market is the product of nonspeculative activity, the greater the significance of technical breakouts.”

On asking which is better, technical analysis or fundamental analysis, he answered, “That is like asking a doctor whether he would prefer treating a patient with diagnostics or with a chart monitoring his condition. You need both. But, if anything, the fundamentals are more important now. In the 1970s, it was a lot easier to make money using technical anaylsis alone. There were far fewer false breakouts. Nowadays, everybody is a chartist, and there are a huge number of technical trading systems. I think that change has made it much harder for the technical trader.”

Advice to novice traders: “First, I would say that risk management is the most important thing to be well understood. Undertrade, undertrade, undertrade is my second piece of advice. Whatever you think your position ought to be, cut it at least half.” “They personalize the market. A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not. Whenever a trader says, “I wish,” or “I hope,” he is engaging in a destructive way of thinking because it takes attention away from the diagnostic process.”

Richard Dennis

“when you start, you ought to be as bad a trader as you are ever going to be.”

“I always say that you could publish trading rules in the newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline. Almost anybody can make up a list of rules that are 80 percent as good as what we taught people. What they couldn’t do is give them the confidence to stick to those rules even when things are going bad.”

“my research on individual stocks shows that price fluctuations are closer to random than they are in commodities. Demonstrably, commodities are trending and, arguably, stocks are random.”

“There will come a day when easily discovered and lightly conceived trend-following systems no longer work. It is going to be harder to develop good systems.”

“The secret is being as short term or as long term as you can stand, depending on your trading style. It is the imtermediate term that picks up the vast majority of trend followers. The best strategy is to avoid the middle like the plague.” (more…)

The Great Trades Are Obvious

  
  Education
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“The great trades don’t require predictions. The Soros trade of going short the pound in 1992 was based on something that had already happened — an ongoing deep recession that made it inevitable that the U.K. would not maintain the high interest rates required by remaining in the E.R.M. Afterward, everyone said, “That was incredibly obvious.”

“Most of the great trades are incredibly obvious. It was the same in late 2007. In my mind, it was clear that the financial system was imploding and that most market participants hadn’t noticed.”

– Colm O’ Shea, Hedge Fund Market Wizards

Its all about managing risk

  
  Education
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Trend Following is all about managing risk. As Trend Following is not about prediction, we do not know when we enter a trade whether it will be profitable or not, so we take calculated risk and put a position small enough not to hurt us bad in case the trade is a loss trade.
This small risk taken over a lot of trades ends up in the right side of the balance sheet, which makes Trend Following a good strategy.
Risk Management strategy is called Position Sizing or Money Management (MM).
 
We have made our business managing risk.
We are comfortable with risk and we get our reward from risk.”

Hesitation

  
  Education
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You are watching a stock that has all the signals you look for in an opportunity. The proper point to enter comes, but you wait. You second guess the opportunity and don’t buy the stock. Or, you bid for the stock at a price that is not likely to get filled if the opportunity does pan out the way you anticipate it will. As a result, you get left behind while the market pushes the stock higher. A short while after the initial entry signal, when the stock has made a decent gain, you decide to finally enter the trade. After all, the market has proven your analysis correct, so you must be smart, and right! Not long after you enter, the stock turns south and you end up with a losing trade. If only you had bought when you first thought about it.

The Solution

This is really just a confidence issue. You are either not confident in your ability to analyze stocks, or you are not confident in the methodology that you are using to pick trades. Therefore, you have to research your method so that you have the confidence that it works. Then, you have to start small, making trades that have a potential loss that you are comfortable with. As you gain confidence in your method and your ability, increase the trade size. With your new found confidence, stand in a crowded room and scream, “I am great!” Well, maybe don’t carry it that far.

Controlling your Emotions

  
  Education
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Emotions-asr1The fact is, the majority of traders lose because they cannot control their emotions – and their emotions cause them to make irrational trades and lose.

Trading psychology is one of the keys to investment success, but its impact is not understood by many investors, who simply think they need a good trading method, but this is only part of the equation for winning at currency trading.

The influence Of Hope and Fear

In currency trading psychology, two emotions that are constantly present are:Hope and fear. One of the traders who recognized this was the legendary trader W D Gann.

Hope and fear are destructive emotions and all traders are influenced by them, they are part of all traders’ psychology.

Hope and fear can make traders act irrationally, they know what they should do, but they simply can’t do it.

Executing a trading method with discipline is the only way to overcome destructive emotions.

Human Nature Is Constant – Exploit It for Trading Success It doesn’t matter what market you trade:

Commodities, stocks, currencies, or what type of trader you are, a day or position trader, the fact is, trading psychology influences the majority of traders.

If you can control your emotions and trade with a disciplined plan you can gain a trading edge. (more…)

Evaluating Yourself as a Trader

  
  Education
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1) What is the quality of your self-talk while trading?

2) What work do you do on yourself and your trading while the market is closed?

3) How would your trading profit/loss profile change if you eliminated a few days where you lacked proper risk control?

4) Does the size of your positions reflect the opportunity you see in the market?

5) Are trading losses often followed by further trading losses due to frustration?

6) Do you cut winning trades short because, deep inside, you don’t think you’ll be able to achieve large profits?

7) Is trading making you happy, proud, fulfilled, and content, or does it more often leave you feeling unhappy, guilty, frustrated, and dissatisfied?

8) Are you making trades because the market is giving you opportunity, or are you placing trades to fulfill needs–for excitement, self-esteem, recognition–that aren’t being met in the rest of your life?

9) Are you seeking returns that are realistic given your level of experience and development?

10) Can you identify the specific edges you possess over the many other motivated, interested traders that fail to achieve success in the markets?

Many answers to trading problems begin by asking the right questions.

THE THREE PHASES OF A TRADE

  
  Education
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The ANTICIPATION Phase:  this is where all the left hand chart reading takes place in preparation for the right hand chart battle. It’s the PROCESS that precedes the ACTION to put on a trade. A technical trader anticipates that a past price pattern will repeat again, so he identifies the pattern, locates a current one and determines a suitable match is present.  Technical analysis is nothing more than finding previous price patterns matched with current market conditions.  Traders anticipate such repetitive behavior based on human nature and seek to take advantage of it.

The ACTION phase involves hitting the BUY key based on the previous ANTICIPATION process.  Since no one can tell the future or what the right hand side of the chart will reveal, the ACTION is based on the confidence that the trader will do what is right once a trade is put on, which is to exit gracefully at a pre-determined loss line or exit humbly at a pre-determined profit target (P2), fully accepting either/or, or an OUTCOME between one or the other, depending on current market conditions. (more…)

How to Stay Objective in your Trades

  
  Education
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1. Acknowledge that you have lost objectivity. Now that you are aware of the problem, you can begin to deal with it.

2. Remove yourself from the day-to-day noise and write down what your original thesis was. Clearing off your mirrors will tell you what direction you are moving.

3. Begin to Think Backwards by creating three columns with the following headings (Support, Do Not Support, Undecided). This will force you to Objectively lay out and evaluate the situation.

4. Talk to yourself: “Based on the data points I wrote down in each column, if I did not have a position on, what would I do?” Asking yourself this question forces you re-evaluate the trade from an unbiased perspective.

5. Compare your response with your original position/thesis to create a WIN-WIN (more…)

10 Thoughts from Mark Douglas

  
  Education
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1. The four trading fears

95% of the trading errors you are likely to make will stem from your attitudes about being wrong, losing money, missing out, and leaving money on the table – the four trading fears

2. The proverbial empathy gap

You may already have some awareness of much of what you need to know to be a consistently successful trader. But being aware of something doesn’t automatically make it a functional part of who you are. Awareness is not necessarily a belief. You can’t assume that learning about something new and agreeing with it is the same as believing it at a level where you can act on it.

3. The market doesn’t generate happy or painful information

From the markets perspective, it’s all simply information. It may seem as if the market is causing you to feel the way you do at any given moment, but that’s not the case. It’s your own mental framework that determines how you perceive the information, how you feel, and, as a result, whether or not you are in the most conducive state of mind to spontaneously enter the flow and take advantage of whatever the market is offering. (more…)

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