Archives of “supply and demand” tag

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Chile sees slowing Chinese demand for copper, projects price falling in 2022

  
  Analysis
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Commission Chilena del Cobre (Cochilco) acts as an advisor to the Chilean government through the Ministry of mining, focused on copper and its by-products.

(That’s an ‘in a nutshell’ description.)
Cochilco average copper price forecast
  • for 2021 US$4.20/lb (was US$4.30/lb previously, this projection made 3 months ago)
  • for 2022 unchanged at US$3.95/lb
Cites:
slower growth in the Chinese economy
and therefore copper import falls
China’s policy to sell copper reserves
US Federal reserve to taper stimulus
On the other hand:
  • expectations of economic recovery
  • low inventories
  • limited supply
  • labour disputes
Cochilco predicts a supply deficit for 2021 and a surplus for 2022
  • global copper demand will rise this year and next

OPEC lowers global oil demand forecast

  
Analysis, Crude
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The latest forecasts in OPEC’s monthly report

The latest forecasts in OPEC's monthly report
OPEC now sees 2020 world oil demand down by 9.06 mbpd compared to a drop of 8.95 mbpd in the previous monthly report.
They say the second-half outlook points to the need for continued efforts to support a rebalancing in the market through OPEC+ adjustments.
With that, they cut their forecast for OPEC crude by 400K bpd this year and 500K bpd in 2021. Part of that is due to higher non-OPEC supply.
Crude is unmoved by the news and up 59-cents to $42.20/barrel on the day.
The main worry for oil is that OPEC starts to ramp up production again. Non-OPEC producers are filling in gaps from the huge cuts and that’s not going to fly forever.

US strikes $2.1 billion coronavirus vaccine deal with Sanofi, GlaxoSmithKline

  
  Analysis
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Sanofi, GSK selected for Operation Warp Speed

The deal will see the firms provide the US government with 100 million doses of the coronavirus vaccine, with the US to provide up to $2.1 billion for development, clinical trials, manufacturing and the delivery of the initial batch of doses.

The US will also have a further option for a supply of additional 500 million doses of the vaccine in the longer-term. GSK adds that if study data are postive, the companies can request US regulatory approval some time in 1H 2021.
To put a bit of a timeline on things, phase 1/2 of the study is expected to start in September with Phase 3 set to be conducted by the end of the year.
That’s another win for both firms after having struck a deal with the UK government earlier in the week here.

The way to learn

  
  Education
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Learning to trade is not very different from learning any other discipline. It takes a lot of efforts and finding the right teachers. At some level of experience, the best teacher for you will be you, but before such level is reached having someone to show you the direction of least resistance is priceless.

For example, in his early years, one of the most notorious composers ever –  Mozart, imitated and mimicked the work of others. From their lessons, later in his life, he gradually builds his own unique style. This is a common path to success in music. Common path to success in trading.

In music first you learn the notes. Then you try to replay other guys’ compositions until one day you start to compose in your own unique style. In trading, first you learn the basics of supply and demand, some common market anomalies and basic market psychology. Then you read about other, already successful, people’s methods and try to mimic them until one day you become experienced enough to create your own style of trading that satisfy you financial and personal goals best. These are three different levels of expertese in each field and they should be mastered in the mentioned sequence.

Trade What You See?

  
  Education
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“Trade what you see” is a common mantra among short-term traders who formulate their trade ideas from charts. But do we process information from charts in accurate and non-biased ways?
An interesting set of studies reported in the 2003 Journal of Behavioral Finance suggest that perceptual biases in what we see can skew our trading and investment decisions.
Specifically, when investors see a chart that has a salient high point, they are more likely to want to buy that stock. When the chart depicts a salient low point, they are more apt to sell. In the words of the authors, “expectations about future prices assimilated to extreme past prices.”
The authors found that, when a chart contained a highly noticeable high point, traders listed more favorable features of the stock; when the chart depicted a salient low, more negative aspects of the stock were emphasized. Their analyses suggest that charts affect investors by providing them with enhanced access to either positive or negative information about the stock. In other words, our processing of the chart creates a selective bias in retrieval, leading us to view shares in artificially positive or negative ways.
It isn’t too far from the authors’ finding to a broader psychological hypothesis that *any* highly salient feature of a trading situation may skew information retrieval, perception, and action. For instance, the salient information may be a recent large gain or loss; a dramatic market move; or a piece of news. Trading what we see might be dangerous for the same reason that it is dangerous to trade what we hear or what we feel. 
When one facet of a situation becomes highly salient to us, we overweight it in our perception and information processing. Our ability to view the entire situation in perspective is compromised. What is most obvious in a chart–or in our minds–may not be an accurate reflection of underlying supply and demand in a marketplace.

Intellectual Flexibility

  
  Education
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There is a difference between what you think it should happen and what ultimately happens, especially in the short-term perspective where supply and demand are defined not by fundamentals, but by fear and greed.

However strongly you believe in something and however coherent the case is, you need to be:

(1) willing to accept that you might be wrong, and

(2) able to take the position off even though you might not be wrong in the medium-term sense.

Suggestions to Speculators

  
  Education
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Be a Cynic When Reading the Tape

We must be cynics when reading the tape. I do not mean that we should be pessimists, because we must have open minds always, without preconceived opinions. An inveterate bull, or bear, cannot hope to trade successfully. The long-pull investor may never be anything but a bull, and, if he hangs on long enough, will probably come out all right. But a trader should be a cynic. Doubt all before you believe anything. Realize that you are playing the coldest, bitterest game in the world.

Almost anything is fair in stock trading. The whole idea is to outsmart the other fellow. It is a game of checkers with the big fellows playing against the public. Many a false move is engineered to catch our kings. The operators have the advantage in that the public is generally wrong.

They are at a disadvantage in that they must put up the capital; they risk fortunes on their judgment of conditions. We, on the other hand, who buy and sell in small lots, must learn to tag along with the insiders while they are accumulating and running up their stocks; but we must get out quickly when they do. We cannot hope to be successful unless we are willing to study and practice—and take losses!

But you will find so much in Part Three of this book about taking losses, about limiting losses and allowing profits to run, that I shall not take up your thought with the matter now.

So, say I, let us be hard-boiled cynics, believing nothing but what the action of the market tells us. If we can determine the supply and demand which exists for stocks, we need not know anything else.

If you had 10,000 shares of some stock to sell, you would adopt tactics, maneuver false moves, throw out information, and act in a manner to indicate that you wanted to buy, rather than sell; would you not? Put yourself in the position of the other fellow. Think what you would do if you were in his position. If you are contemplating a purchase, stop to think whether, if you act contrary to your inclination, you would not be doing the wiser thing, remembering that the public is usually wrong.

The way to learn

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Learning to trade is not very different from learning any other discipline. It takes a lot of efforts and finding the right teachers. At some level of experience, the best teacher for you will be you, but before such level is reached having someone to show you the direction of least resistance is priceless.

For example, in his early years, one of the most notorious composers ever –  Mozart, imitated and mimicked the work of others. From their lessons, later in his life, he gradually builds his own unique style. This is a common path to success in music. Common path to success in trading.

In music first you learn the notes. Then you try to replay other guys’ compositions until one day you start to compose in your own unique style. In trading, first you learn the basics of supply and demand, some common market anomalies and basic market psychology. Then you read about other, already successful, people’s methods and try to mimic them until one day you become experienced enough to create your own style of trading that satisfy you financial and personal goals best. These are three different levels of expertese in each field and they should be mastered in the mentioned sequence.

Trading Commandments

  
  Education
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Respect the price action but never defer to it. 
Our eyes are valuable tools when trading but if we deferred to the flickering ticks, stocks would be “better” up and “worse” down and that’s a losing proposition. 
Discipline trumps conviction. 
No matter how strongly you feel on a given position, you must defer to the principles of discipline when trading. Always attempt to define your risk and never believe that you’re smarter than the market. 
Opportunities are made up easier than losses. 
It’s not necessary to play every day; it’s only necessary to have a high winning percentage on the trades you choose to make. Sometimes the ability not to trade is as important as trading ability. 
Emotion is the enemy when trading. 
Emotional decisions have a way of coming back to haunt you. If you’re personally attached to a position, your decision making process will be flawed. Take a deep breath before risking your hard earned coin. 
Zig when others Zag. 
Sell hope, buy despair and take the other side of emotional disconnects (in the context of controlled risk). If you can’t find the sheep in the herd, chances are that you’re it. 
Adapt your style to the market. 
Different investment approaches are warranted at different junctures and applying the right methodology is half the battle. Identify your time horizon and employ a risk profile that allows the market to work for you. 
Maximize your reward relative to your risk. 
If you’re patient and pick your spots, edges will emerge that provide an advantageous risk/reward profile. Proactive patience is a virtue. 
Perception is reality in the marketplace. 
Identifying the prevalent psychology is a necessary process when trading. It’s not “what is,” it’s what’s perceived to be that dictates supply and demand. 
When unsure, trade “in between.” 
Your risk profile should always be an extension of your thought process. If you’re unsure, trade smaller until you identify your comfort zone. 
Don’t let your bad trades turn into investments. 
Rationalization has no place in trading. If you put a position on for a catalyst and it passes, take the risk off—win, lose or draw. 
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