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Mark Douglas : Trading in the Zone

  
  Education
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Without doubt the foremost reading, it seems, in trading circles. Douglas’ book, in my view, deserves its place at the top of a traders reading list. Whether you are trading currencies, commodities, stocks or futures this book will have something for everyone. The book tackles the psychology involved in being a successful trader. The book attempts to give the reader the tools to develop the Confidence and discipline to become and consistent winner.

I think the book is a superb read and although I cannot say right now how succesful it has been, it is one of the few books that I pick up nearly every day and read another chapter again and remind myself of some of Douglas’  inspiring ideas and thoughts.

The book ends with a great 20 trades learning excercise that is a must.

The key learnings I get from reading this book :

1)The market is random; you cannot predict it. Unless you know every individual who has a position in the market and you know their strategy for each trade it is impossible to know what will happen next.Give up trying to predict, and focus on the now moment and managing yourself , your money and your strategy.

2)The Power of Association. Douglas uses throughout the book a story about a boy and his fear of  dogs. He uses this analogy to describe how previous experiences that have given pain, or expected pain, to us will mean that our mind will do everything possible to protect itself from future pain when it is exposed to similar circumstances at some point again in the future. i.e. If you recognise a market pattern where previously you lost a trade you will be compelled to exit the trade at that point or not take that trade on; because you will not want to experience pain. Douglas again talks about the here and now and describes how we can overcome these internal obstacles.

101%….Don’t miss to Read this Book !!!!

40 steps in the Traders Journey

  
  Education
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They are as follows:

  1. We accumulate information, we learn- buying books, asking questions, maybe going to seminars and researching what really works in trading.
  2. We begin to trade with our ‘new’  found knowledge.
  3. We make profits only to give it back very quickly and then realize we may need more knowledge or information.
  4. We accumulate more information.
  5. We switch the stocks we are currently following and trading.
  6. We go back into the market and trade with our better system. this time it will work.
  7. We lose even more money and begin to lose of confidence that we can even be traders. The reality of losing money sets in.
  8. We start to listen to other traders and what works for them.
  9. We go back into the market and continue to lose more money.
  10. We completely switch our style and method.
  11. We search for more information.
  12. We go back into the market and start to see a little progress.
  13. We get ‘over-confident’ in a single trade and put on a big position believing it is a sure thing and the market quickly takes our money.
  14. We start to understand that trading successfully is going to take more time and more knowledge than we ever anticipated. MOST PEOPLE WILL GIVE UP AT THIS POINT, AS THEY REALIZE WORK IS INVOLVED.
  15. We get serious and start concentrating on learning a ‘real’ methodology.
  16. We trade our methodology with some success, but realize that something is missing.
  17. We begin to understand the need for having rules to apply our methodology.
  18. We take a sabbatical from trading to develop and research our trading rules.
  19. We start trading again, this time with rules and find some success, but over all we still hesitate when we execute.
  20. We add, subtract and modify rules as we see a need to be more proficient with our rules. (more…)

Nicolas Darvas Quotes

  
  Education
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Discipline:
“I knew now that I had to keep rigidly to the system I had carved out for myself.”
Risk/Reward:
“I was successful in taking larger profits than losses in proportion to the amounts invested.”
Exiting profitable trades:
“I decided to let my stop-loss decide.”(Speaking on when to exit an up trending stock)
Bear Markets
“I also learned to stay out of bear markets unless my individual stocks remain in their boxes or advance.” (more…)

3 New Trading Rules

  
  Education
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-THE MORE STUBBORN YOU ARE, THE MORE YOU WILL LOSE.  THE STOCK MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT.

-DON’T CHASE STOCKS JUST TO DO A TRADE.  AVOID BOREDOM TRADES.  IF NO TRADE IS THERE, PASS, AND SOMETIMES DON’T TRADE ANY STOCKS AT ALL.

-TRY TO GET IN BEFORE THE HEADLINES INSTEAD OF BUYING THE HEADLINES.   Market homework absolutely required to be a success.

Trading Rules: Strategies For Success

  
  Education
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tradingrulesforsuccess
1. Divide your trading capital into ten equal risk segments
2. Use a two-step order process
3. Don’t overtrade
4. Never let a profit turn into a loss
5. Trade with the trend
6. If you don’t know what’s going on, don’t do anything
7. Tips don’t make you any money
8. Use the right order to get into the markets
9. Don’t be whimsical about closing out your trades
10. Withdraw a portion of your profits
11. Don’t buy a stock only to obtain a dividend
12. Don’t average your losses
13. Take big profits and small losses
14. Go for the long pull as an outside speculator
15. Sell shorts as often as you go long
16. Don’t buy something because it is low priced
17. Pyramid correctly, if at all
18. Decrease your trading after a series of successes
19. Don’t formulate new opinions during market hours
20. Don’t follow the crowd – they are usually wrong
21. Don’t watch or trade too many markets at once
22. Buy the rumor, sell the fact
23. Take windfall profits when you get them
24. Keep charts current
25. Preserve your capital
26. Nothing new ever occurs in the markets
27. Money cannot be made every day from the markets
28. Back your opinions with cash when they are confirmed by market action
29. Markets are never wrong, opinions often are
30. A good trade is profitable right from the start
31. As long as a market is acting right, don’t rush to take profits
32. Never permit speculative ventures to turn into investments
33. Don’t try to predetermine your profits
34. Never buy a stock because it has a big decline from its previous high, nor sell a stock because it is high priced
35. Become a buyer as soon as a stock makes new highs after a normal reaction
36. The human side of every person is the greatest enemy to successful trading
37. Ban wishful thinking in the markets
38. Big movements take time to develop
39. Don’t be too curious about the reasons behind the moves
40. Look for reasonable profits
41. If you can’t make money trading the leading issues, you aren’t going to make it trading the overall markets
42. Leaders of today may not be the leaders of tomorrow
43. Trade the active stocks and futures
44. Avoid discretionary accounts and partnership trading accounts
45. Bear markets have no supports and bull markets have no resistance
46. The smarter you are, the longer it takes
47. It is harder to get out of a trade than to get into one
48. Don’t talk about what you’re doing in the markets
49. When time is up, markets must reverse
50. Control what you can, manage what you cannot

Great Expectations

  
  Education
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The best things in life are unexpected – because there were no expectations – ELI KHAMAROV 

Great_expectations

 Legendary trader Roy Longstreet was once asked by Intermarket Magazine, “Why have you succeeded in trading to such a degree and why do most traders fail?”  Roy answered “Many major problems people have in trading are caused by their expectations – of where the market is headed, how much money will they make from this trade, etc. One thing I learned that has helped me: it is wrong for a person to enter any market with any preconceived expectations.” 

He went on to say, “I know that there’s always the possibility that what I don’t want to happen, will happen. The market will not act in accord with my expectations. You have to ask yourself the question, how must you function to survive? The answer is to be able to accept a loss. Not having expectations makes it a little easier to accept a loss. You must realize that losing is part of soul growth, so to speak. It’s necessary. It’s hard to accept, but necessary.” 

This problem of attaching ourselves to an outcome is not exclusive to trading, but is a problem in investing in general. Expectations of higher and higher returns have become commonplace in an environment of lower opportunity to do so. Few people consider the fact that when they invest today, the riskless marketplace pays close to zero.  For example, the one month Treasury Bill pays $40 for a $100,000 investment, and inflation is running around -1.3%, based on the Consumer Price Index.  (more…)

Hesitation

  
  Education
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You are watching a stock that has all the signals you look for in an opportunity. The proper point to enter comes, but you wait. You second guess the opportunity and don’t buy the stock. Or, you bid for the stock at a price that is not likely to get filled if the opportunity does pan out the way you anticipate it will. As a result, you get left behind while the market pushes the stock higher. A short while after the initial entry signal, when the stock has made a decent gain, you decide to finally enter the trade. After all, the market has proven your analysis correct, so you must be smart, and right! Not long after you enter, the stock turns south and you end up with a losing trade. If only you had bought when you first thought about it.

The Solution

This is really just a confidence issue. You are either not confident in your ability to analyze stocks, or you are not confident in the methodology that you are using to pick trades. Therefore, you have to research your method so that you have the confidence that it works. Then, you have to start small, making trades that have a potential loss that you are comfortable with. As you gain confidence in your method and your ability, increase the trade size. With your new found confidence, stand in a crowded room and scream, “I am great!” Well, maybe don’t carry it that far.

Controlling your Emotions

  
  Education
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Emotions-asr1The fact is, the majority of traders lose because they cannot control their emotions – and their emotions cause them to make irrational trades and lose.

Trading psychology is one of the keys to investment success, but its impact is not understood by many investors, who simply think they need a good trading method, but this is only part of the equation for winning at currency trading.

The influence Of Hope and Fear

In currency trading psychology, two emotions that are constantly present are:Hope and fear. One of the traders who recognized this was the legendary trader W D Gann.

Hope and fear are destructive emotions and all traders are influenced by them, they are part of all traders’ psychology.

Hope and fear can make traders act irrationally, they know what they should do, but they simply can’t do it.

Executing a trading method with discipline is the only way to overcome destructive emotions.

Human Nature Is Constant – Exploit It for Trading Success It doesn’t matter what market you trade:

Commodities, stocks, currencies, or what type of trader you are, a day or position trader, the fact is, trading psychology influences the majority of traders.

If you can control your emotions and trade with a disciplined plan you can gain a trading edge. (more…)

The Zen of Trading

  
  Education
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This is the “Zen of Trading;” It is more than an overview — it’s an investment philosophy that can help you develop an investing framework of your own.

1. Have a Comprehensive Plan: Whether you are an investor or active trader, you must have a plan. Too many investors have no strategy at all — they merely react to each twitch of the market on the fly. If you fail to plan, goes the saying, then you plan to fail.
Consider how Roger Clemens approaches a game. He studies his opponent, constructs his game plan and goes to work.

Investors should write up a business plan, as if they were asking a Venture Capitalist for start-up money; just because you are the angel investor doesn’t mean you should skip the planning stages.

2. Expect to Be Wrong: We’ve discussed this previously, but it is such a key aspect of successful investing that it bears repeating. You will be wrong, you will be wrong often and, occasionally, you will be spectacularly wrong.
Michael Jordan has a fabulous perspective on the subject: “I’ve missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. Twenty six times, I’ve been trusted to take the game-winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.”

Jordan was the greatest ball player of all time, and not only because of his superb physical skills: He understood the nature and importance of failure, and placed it appropriately within a larger framework of the game.

The best investors have no ego tied up in a trade. Those who refuse to recognize the simple truism of “being wrong often” end up giving away unacceptable amounts of capital. Stubborn pride and lack of risk management allow egotists to stay in stocks down 30%, 40% or 50% — or worse.

 

3. Predetermine Stops Before Opening Any Position: Sign a “prenuptial agreement” with every stock you participate in: When it hits some point you have determined before you purchased it, that’s it, you’re out, end of story. Once you have come to understand that you will be frequently wrong, it becomes much easier to use stop-losses and sell targets.
This is true regardless of your methodology: It may be below support or beneath a moving average, or perhaps you prefer a specific percentage amount. Some people use the prior month’s low. But whatever your stop-loss method is, stick to it religiously. Why? The prenup means you are making the exit decision before you are in a trade — while you are still neutral and objective.

4. Follow Discipline Religiously: The greatest rules in the world are worthless if you do not have the personal discipline to see them through. I can recall every single time I broke a trading rule of my own, and it invariably cost me money.
RealMoney’s Chartman, Gary B. Smith, slavishly follows his discipline, and he notes that every time some hedge fund — chock full of Nobel Laureates and Ivy League whiz kids — blows up, the mea culpa is the same: If only we hadn’t overrode the system.

In Jack Schwager’s seminal book Market Wizards, the single most important theme repeated by each of the wizards was the importance of discipline. (more…)

Jesse Livermore : Trading Quotes

  
  Education
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Speculating

If somebody had told me my method would not work I nevertheless would have tried it out to make sure for myself, for when I am wrong only one thing convinces me of it, and that is, to lose money. And I am only right when I make money. That is speculating.

Risk

If all I have is ten dollars and I risk it, I am much braver than when I risk a million if I have another million salted away.

Personality

Every stock is like a human being : it has a personality – a distinctive personality – aggressive, reserved, hyper, high-strung, volatile, boring, direct, logical, predictable, unpredictable. I often studied stocks like I would study people; after a while their reactions to certain circumstances become more predictable.

Loss

A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong – not taking the loss – that is what does damage to the pocketbook and to the soul.

Entry

When I’m bearish and I sell a stock, each sale must be at a lower level than the previous sale. When I am buying, the reverse is true. I must buy on a rising scale. I don’t buy long stocks on a scale down, I buy on a scale up.

General Stock Market

There is only one side to the stock market;….not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side. It took me longer to get that general principle fixed firmly in my mind than it did most of the more technical phases of the game of stock market speculation

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