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5 Expensive Words

  
  Education
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Whether it’s been on the winning side of trades where I’ve tried to squeeze the last Rs 2 out of a stock, or it’s a losing position that has been trying to tell me I’m wrong (those numbers are RED for a reason!), I am guilty! 

Oddly enough, as cheap as it is to enter trades with commission structures so affordable, have you ever noticed just how expensive it can be to stay in a trade?

We all know the rules….
• Obey thy stop!
• Never Believe in your stock!
• Don’t let a trade become an investment!

…..yet it is so easy to break them. It’s a solitary job, and the only person to prevent you from compounding your mistakes is the one you see in the mirror.

So, be your own ally. Have a trading plan in place before you login to your account. Do your homework. Set hard stops as soon as your orders are filled, and let those safety nets keep your losses small (we all know how easy it is to blow a mental stop).

Be smart! Trading is about real money, not just flickering numbers on a screen. Be prepared and protect your capital at all costs. That guy in the mirror will hold you accountable the next time you see him!

No Risk-No Gain

  
  Education
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Trading is ALL about managing risk and probability.  The risk part is easy, you can quantify your risk by setting a stop on all your trades.  Yes, a stock can gap through your stop overnight, so we can’t know are risk 100% for certain, but setting aside major overnight announcements and earnings, we can get a pretty good idea.  The probability part is a little more difficult.  I don’t have empirical evidence to support the patterns I trade on both the long and shorts side, other’s have done a decent amount of research, and I have read some, but at the end of the day I have always believed that so called voodoo of technical analysis is a different religion for everyone.  Technical analysis, being little more than the study of the psychology of the market, is interpreted by everyone differently, and therefore should not be seen quantitatively to a large extent, but as more of an art.  It’s just like a psychologist, you can go to 4 different guys and get 4 different answer to your issues, they will approach you in different ways, ask you different questions, it’s a feel thing.

Anyway, I want to make the point in this post that you’ve got to understand and accept the risk you are putting on when you make a trade.  I will review a trade of mine where I made a terrible mistake and foresake this principal, and it has cost me quite a good deal of profits over the last few weeks, especially give that my thesis was correct.  It’s not enough to have good ideas, you must execute them properly.

Timing

  
  Education
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timimg

Timing your entries and exits is crucial to your success as a trader. The charts and price action tell you when the time is right. You just need to pay attention and recognize what they are saying.When you can simplify your information sources down to only a few then your task will become easier. After all , how many indicators do you really need when the chart shows it is going up and the markets show they are going up? How much confirmation do you need? And confirmation of what? The future is unwritten. The more you wait, the farther way the prime entry/exit spot is moving away from you. The more risk you take on. More risk can play on your emotions. Indicators are always behind the times. I view them as pretty useless. The price on the chart and the candles are my REAL TIME indicators. Sounds simple and it is.So if you have simplified things in the manner I describe, the next item to truly believe in is probabilities. I (and everybody else) don’t know what is going to happen in the future. However, I know that profit taking will happen after long trends, pops, drops etc. Trading the probability of a reversal after a extended uptrend when the candles are getting shorter, volume is dropping off and the overall markets showing the same is only taking the view that gravity usually takes effect and that the stock will drop. This is timing the market. My mind is not encumbered by hopes, dream and predictions of what will happen. I think of only the probability. There is a huge difference between the two psychologically after you take some losers in a row. I don’t take the losers personally as a reflection of my poor judgment. I just think that it’s the law of probabilities playing themselves out and so I can go into my next trade opportunity unafraid and without hesitation.

George Soros – "It's not whether you're right or wrong…"

  
  Education
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The full quote – “It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.”

Soros’s style of trading is very unforgiving and he is always ready to admit when he is wrong and cut his losses. Admitting one’s mistake is one of the key things to successful trading – he or she will be psychologically prepared to take action to reduce their losses without much delay.

How many of us always hold on to unrealized losses, and hope or even believe that the stock will regain its price? I guess many of us are guilty of that. Some stocks drop in price for a reason and there are even more reasons for them to drop further until you realize how bad your unrealized losses are!

As Soros take huge positions and high leverage in his trades, he has to be decisive to cut loss so as to lose as little as possible when he is wrong. On the other hand, when he is right, he make sure his profits can more than overcome his losses several folds. He understands he cannot be right all the time – the principle is to minimize your loss when you are wrong and maximize your profit when you are right.

Following my Parameters

  
  Education
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1) Relative Strength or Weakness- there’s no reason for me to pick from the mushy middle, as the biggest movers come from the best and worst 5% of the market.

2) Abnormal Volume- it can be abnormally high or abnormally low, but I’m looking for stocks that are doing something different that they’ve done in recent days or weeks.

3) Abnormal Range- again, high or low tells me something…average tells me nothing.

4) Identifiable Support(Longs) or Resistance(Shorts)- I have no need to be the first, that’s for the really brave and really smart(maybe).  If the idea is that good, I’ll have days/weeks/months to milk it…in case you haven’t heard, the second mouse gets the cheese.

4) News Absorption- I like to participate AFTER news events…it gives me a good idea of the temperament of a stock’s owners. It may have broken out from a base.  It may have been crushed but then built a base.  It may have reacted poorly to a “great” report. In any case, I want to see how a stock reacted the last time there was real news, and position myself on the side that has taken control since then.

6) Doubt- this is a tricky one, but our ideas should not be SO obvious that our relatives and neighbors love the idea.  Buy worry, short hope.  Buy after panic, short after euphoria.  I’m not saying to ignore an idea because your Twitter stream agrees with you…haven’t we filtered our list to only those we respect?  But take a second to check your spot on this curve, and where you sit on this idea.

Keep a Cash Reserve & Be Patient

  
  Education
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There are times when playing the stock mar­ket that your money should be inactive – waiting on the sidelines in cash – waiting to come into play.

In the stockmarket – time is not money – time is time ­and money is money.
Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience.

Patience is the key to success not speed.
Time is a cunning speculator’s best friend if he uses it right.

Remember the clever speculator is always patient and has a reserve of cash.

Jesse Livermore

A Bad Teacher

  
  Education
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The World’s Worst Teacher

The market often rewards bad behavior. You exit a stock because your stop is hit. You are okay with this because you followed your plan. The market then immediately reverses. You begin to think, “If only I stayed with the position.” The next time the market goes against you, you decide you are not going to get tricked again. This time though, the market does not reverse and what started out as a small manageable loss is now huge.

The market will give you loss after loss forcing you to abandon a methodology right before it takes off without you. On the flip side, the market will lull you into a false sense of confidence. You trade larger and larger, taking on excessive risk. You print money until your risks become so excessive that one or two bad trades wipe you out.

Learn from the market, but realize that sometimes it can be a lousy instructor.

R.W. Schabacker, the financial editor of Forbes magazine, penned the following advice (warning) in 1934

  
  Education
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No trader can ever expect to be correct in every one of his market transactions. No individual, however well he may be grounded, no matter how much experience he has had in practical market operation, can expect to be infallible. There will always be mistakes, some unwise judgments, some erroneous moves, some losses. The extent to which such losses materialize, to which they are allowed to become serious, will almost invariably determine whether the individual is to be successful in his long-range investing activities or whether such accumulated losses are finally to wreck him on the shoals of mental despair and financial tragedy.

THE TRUE TEST

It is easy enough to manage those commitments which progress smoothly and successfully to one’s anticipated goal. The true test of market success comes when the future movement is not in line with anticipated developments, when the trader is just plain wrong in his calculations, and when his investment begins to show a loss instead of a profit. If such situations are not properly handled, if one or two losing positions are allowed to get out of control, then they can wipe out a score of successful profits and leave the individual with a huge loss on balance. It is just as important-nay, even more important-to know when to dessert a bad bargain, take one’s loss and count it a day, as it is to know when to close out a successful transaction which has brought profit.

LIMITS ARE A MUST

The staggering catastrophes which ruin investors, mentally, morally, and financially, are not contingent upon the difference between a 5 percent loss limit and a 20 percent loss limit. They stem from not having established any limit at all on the possible loss. Any experienced market operator can tell you that his greatest losses have been taken by those, probably rare, instances when he substituted stubbornness for loss limitation, when he bought more of a stock which was going down, instead of selling some of it to lighten his risk, when he allowed pride of personal opinion to replace conservative faith in the cold judgment of the market place. (more…)

Cutting losses

  
  Education
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cuttingloss

There is one big difference between traders, who make money and traders who don’t. It is called risk management. Even if you blindly pick your stocks, in the long-term you will make money as long as you cut your losses short. Add to risk management a proper equity selection model and then you are in top 5% in the world. The 5% that actually make money, consistently. This is the biggest secret of successful traders – cutting losses short. It saves capital and it saves your piece of mind.

If you browse on the internet, you will find thousands of articles that preach that losses should be cut short. It is well known fact and yet you’ll be surprised how few people actually utilize it, even those who write about it. Words are free. You can say whatever you want. Many people don’t practice what they preach and this is why the biggest edge someone could have is called discipline.

There are two types of traders: the ones that cut losses short and the ones that lose everything and go out of business. If you can’t define your risk in advance and most importantly if you can’t accept it, you should not be trading at all. Reading about cutting losses short will never be enough. It is human to believe that you are different and that you know better and that it will never happen to you. You have to experience it to realize it. It is part of the learning curve. I knew about this rule long before I committed serious money to trading and yet I didn’t practice it until I had my portion of outsized losses. Today, the thought of how and where I’ll exit a trade, is the most important.

I know that there are many people who preach that they don’t use stop losses and yet they are successful. Well, if they are successful doing that, then they are not really traders. They are investors and they limit their risk by hedging, which is a whole new chapter.

Louis Ehrenkrantz’ 7 Golden Rules for Investing

  
  Education
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First rule: develop a large appetite for
reading; it will hone your instincts for finding successful companies.

Second
rule: don’t overdiversify; ten stocks, in at least three sectors, are
enough for the average investor.

Third rule: stick with your winners and sell
your losers; do not automatically sell when a stock hits a target price, but
continue to hold it as long as it performs well and has good prospects for the
future.

Fourth rule: look for top-quality, out-of-favor companies; look for
companies that produce an array of high-quality products and/or services.

Fifth
rule: don’t worry about earnings if a company makes a popular product; strong
earnings growth will follow.

Sixth rule: don’t tinker with your portfolio; check
your portfolio’s performance only once or twice a year.

Seventh rule: don’t be
afraid to hold cash; it’s okay to be prepared to purchase stocks with
beaten-down prices after a correction.

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