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S&P, Nasdaq have best year since 2013

  
Analysis, Global Indices, US Market
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Nasdaq up over 35% on year

The US stock market is closed for the year, and oh what a year it was.
The S&P index and the NASDAQ index both had their best years since 2013. The NASDAQ index led the way for the year with a gain of 35.23%. The S&P index rose by 28.87%. The Dow industrial average was limited with a 22.33% gain. Boeing weighed on that index in 2019.
For the day, the major indices are closing near highs:
  • S&P index rose 9.41 points or 0.29% to 3230.70
  • NASDAQ index rose 26.611 points or 0.30% to 8972.60
  • Dow rose 76.1 points or 0.27% to 28538.24
Globally for the year, the Nasdaq index was the largest gainer (+35.23%) followed by the S&P index (+28.88%) and Italy’s FTSE MIB (up 28.28%).  The Shanghai composite index had a impressive 22.1% return.  France’s Cac and Germany’s DAX rose 26.37% and 25.48% respectively.
The worst performing index was the Portuguese PSI20 at 10.20% and Spain’s Ibex at 11.82%.  The UK FTSE, with all the upheaval and uncertainty from Brexit and the political upheaval, had a limited (relatively) gain of 12.10%.
The YTD returns were impressive in 2019

S&P and Nasdaq close at record levels.

  
Analysis, US Market
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New all time highs in the S&P and Nasdaq too

The S&P and NASDAQ indices are closing at record levels. They also moved to all time record highs intraday.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index, +26.91 points or 0.86% to 3168.55. The new all time intraday high price reached 3176.28
  • NASDAQ index up 63.265 points or 0.73% to 8717.314. The new intraday all-time high price reached 8745.82
  • Dow up 220.62 points or 0.79% to 28131.92

Some winners on the day include:

  • AMD, +7.98%
  • Deutsche Bank, +4.26%
  • FedEx , +3.7%
  • Micron, +3.47%
  • Nvidia, +3.13%
  • Bank of America, +3.09%
  • Cisco, +3.07%
  • Charles Schwab, +2.98%
  • J.P. Morgan, +2.85%
  • PNC financial, +2.54%
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb, +2.48%
Some losers include:
  • Box, -2.82%
  • Facebook, -2.73%. There was an article in the Wall Street Journal saying that the FTC is looking for an injunction on how Facebook apps interact
  • Boeing, -3.66%
  • LYFT, -1.73%
  • Chipotle, -1.4%
  • Philip Morris, -1.13%
  • Twitter, -0.85%
  • Papa John’s, -0.62%
  • Lockheed Martin, -0.5%
  • Gilead, -0.21%

Global stock market rally has further to run in 2020 – Reuters poll

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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But much depends on the US-China trade war still

Poll

The bias has turned more favourable in the most recent poll with a slim majority of respondents (53/102) viewing that risks to the outlook are now skewed more to the upside.

In comparison, just three months ago, a clear majority of respondents (69/97) viewed that risks to the outlook were skewed more to the downside instead.
A lot of this of course owes to the more optimistic US-China trade rhetoric, as both countries look to move closer towards a trade truce by the end of this year.
Among those who answered an additional question in the poll, 50 respondents said the bull run in the stock market will end within a year with 40 respondents saying that it would within the next two years.
That shows that sentiment is leaning more towards the bull run still going strong although I reckon its strength may not be as what we are seeing this year.
I mean with stretched valuations, flagging global growth and more political uncertainty i.e. US elections all at play next year, the S&P 500 may find it tough to post another 25% year like this one and so will its peers.

Dow and S&P close at all time records. Nasdaq does not.

  
Analysis, US Market
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Dow leads the way. S&P marginally higher.  Nasdaq marginally lower

The major US indices are ending the session mixed.
  • The Dow led the way with a gain of 92.10 points or 0.33% at 27783.59
  • The S&P index ended marginally higher by 2.20 points or 0.07% at 3094.04
  • The NASDAQ index fell -3.989 points or -0.05% at 8482.10.
The record-o-meter is showing both the Dow and S&P closing at record high levels. The NASDAQ index – despite reaching new all time intraday highs – did not sustain the gains,and therefore did not close at a new all-time record high.

The S&P and Dow off highs but still close at record highs

  
Analysis, US Market
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All major indices close higher

The major stock indices closed off their high levels for the day as US/China trade deal details go back and forth.  However, they S&P and Dow still closed at record levels. The NASDAQ was higher but still off its record close level.
The final numbers are showing
  • S&P index, 8.42 points or 0.27% at 3085.20. The high reached 3097.77. The low extended to 3080.23
  • NASDAQ index +23.88 points or 0.28% at 8434.51. The high reached 8483.156. The low extended to 8415.87
  • Dow is up 182.24 points or 0.66% at 27674.80. The high for the day reached 27774.67 The low reached 27590.16
After the close, Disney EPS came in higher than expectations at $1.07 versus $0.95 estimate. The revenues came in at $19.10 billion versus $19.04 billion estimate.  Is the stock is trading at $136.00 after closing at $133.12.

No records today. Major indices close lower

  
Analysis, US Market
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Nasdaq leads the month charge forward

The major US stock indices are ending the day with declines but it could have been worse.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P fell -9.21 points oro -0.30% at 3037.56. Yesterday was a record close. So the decline today is makes it easy. No record today.  The high price reached 3046.90 . The low was down at 3023.19.
  • The Nasdaq fell -11.617 points or -0.14% at 8292.35. The high reached 8321.80. The low extended to 8248.80
  • The Dow is closing down -140.46 points or -0.52% at 27046.23. The high reached 27188.37. The low extended down to 26918.29
The % changes of the major stock indices today
Today is also month end (Happy Halloween). The major indices are ending the month higher.
  • Dow, up 0.48%
  • S&P up 2.04%
  • Nasdaq up 3.66%.

For the year, the major indices are still showing strong gains after the down year in 2018.

  • Dow, +15.94%
  • S&P, +21.17%
  • Nasdaq, +24.97%.

How Isaac Newton went flat broke chasing a stock bubble

  
Analysis, Education
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For practitioners of Schadenfreude, seeing high-profile investors losing their shirts is always amusing.

But for the true connoisseur, the finest expression of the art comes when a high-profile investor identifies a bubble, perhaps even makes money out of it, exits in time – and then gets sucked back in only to lose everything in the resultant bust.

An early example is the case of Sir Isaac Newton and the South Sea Company, which was established in the early 18th Century and granted a monopoly on trade in the South Seas in exchange for assuming England’s war debt.

Investors warmed to the appeal of this monopoly and the company’s shares began their rise.

Britain’s most celebrated scientist was not immune to the monetary charms of the South Sea Company, and in early 1720 he profited handsomely from his stake. Having cashed in his chips, he then watched with some perturbation as stock in the company continued to rise.

In the words of Lord Overstone, no warning on earth can save people determined to grow suddenly rich.

Newton went on to repurchase a good deal more South Sea Company shares at more than three times the price of his original stake, and then proceeded to lose £20,000 (which, in 1720, amounted to almost all his life savings).

This prompted him to add, allegedly, that “I can calculate the movement of stars, but not the madness of men.”

South Sea Company (more…)

US major indices ending near session lows

  
Analysis, US Market
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Not a good day for the major stock indices

The major US stock indices were spooked by weaker than expected ISM manufacturing data . Shortly after the data came out, the major indices turned from being up to being down.

The momentum continued through the day.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index, -36.56 points or -1.23% in 2940.18. That is just off the session low at 2938.70. The pair fell below its 50 day moving average today which had been holding support for most of September. That MA comes in at 2948 area.  Stay below going forward keeps the bears in control.  The 100 day MA is down at 2925.50 currently.  A move below that level increases the bearish bias for the pair
  • NASDAQ index, -90.654 points or -1.3% at 7908.68. The low for the day reach 7906.293. For the Nasdaq index, it tumbled below its 100 day moving average at 7963.81 today.  The next major target would be its 200 day moving average. However that is still a bit away at 7704.411.
  • Dow fell -343.79 points of -1.28% at 26573.04.. The low for the index reached 26562.22.
Selling with broad-based today with all the major sectors moving lower.
Some of the major losers today included:
  • Charles Schwab, -9.73%. They lowered commissions $0 on trades
  • DuPont, -4.73%
  • Schlumberger, -4.36%
  • 3M, -3.67%
  • General Motors, -3.66%
  • Slack, -3.46%
  • Cisco, -3.36%
  • Caterpillar, -3.14%
  • Morgan Stanley, -3.05%
  • Ford motors, -2.84%
  • Wells Fargo, -2.76%
  • Fed ex, -2.72%
  • McDonald’s, -2.64%
  • Bank of America, -2.50%
  • Exxon Mobil, -2.37%
  • Twitter, -2.33%
  • Goldman Sachs, -2.20%
Some winners on the day included
  • Phillip Morris, +2.52%
  • Tesla, +1.59%
  • Visa, +1.34%
  • Box, Inc, +1.15%
  • Wynn resorts, +1.11%
  • Netflix, +0.73%
  • Papa John’s +0.42%
  • Coca-Cola, +0.37%
  • Apple, +0.25%
  • Pepsi, +0.20%

US Indices close with mixed results. Earlier gains taken away.

  
Analysis, US Market
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S&P unchanged. Nasdaq up marginally. Dow down.

The major US stock indices are closing the day with mixed results.  Each however had earlier gains taken away into the close.
Looking at the three major indices, one ended unchanged, one was up marginally and one was down.  The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index, unchanged at 3006.79. The high reach 3021.99.. The low extended to 3003.16
  • NASDAQ closed up 5.487 points or 0.07% at 8182.87. The high reached 8237.43. The low extended 28174.32
  • The Dow industrial average closed down -52.29 points or -0.19% at 27094.79. The high reached 27272.17. The low extended to 27064.21.
The chart below shows the percentage change high, the percentage change low, and the closing percentage change for the major North American and European stock indices today. European shares closed near their high levels for the day. The US major indices closed near their session lows.
S&P unchanged. Nasdaq up marginally. Dow down.

What seemed to be a negative catalyst for stocks was a report that a White House official commented that tariffs on China could go as high as 50 to 100%. That spooked the market and prices started to ratchet lower.

An ugly day for US equities. Major indices down for the week.

  
Analysis, US Market
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Dow falls over 600 points.  Nasdaq down -3.0%

It was an ugly day for the US equities. The Dow fell over 600 points. The Nasdaq is closing down -3%.  UGLY.
The escalation of the trade ward is to blame. Pres. Trump has threatened retaliation for the new China tariffs.  He also continued the criticism of the Fed’s Powell.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P fell -75.84 points or -2.59% at 2847.11
  • The Nasdaq fell -239.62 points or -3.00% at 7751.77
  • The Dow fell -623.34 points or -2.37% at 25628.90
Looking at the % ranges for the major indices below, the major indices in US and Europe all closed at or near the session lows today.
Dow falls over 600 points.  Nasdaq down -3.0%

Looking at the point changes, the Dow was down -745 points at the lows.

The point changes of the major indices
For the week, the major indices are ending the week in the red as well:
  • The S&P fell -1.43%
  • The Nasdaq fell -1.83%
  • The Dow fell -0.99%.
Big losers today:
  • AMD, -7.4%
  • Broadcom, -5.39%
  • NVIDIA, -5.16%
  • Tesla, -4.84%
  • Qualcomm, -4.71%
  • Apple, -4.62%
  • Alibaba, -4.29%
  • Micron, -4.06%
  • Intel, -3.89%
  • American Express, -3.65%
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