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12 Market Wisdoms from Gerald Loeb

  
  Education
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It is funny how the best traders of all times basically repeat the same things with different words. 

Gerald Loeb is the author of ‘The Battle for Investment Survival’ and is one of the most quotable men on Wall Street.  Here are 12 of the smartest things he has ever said about the stock market:

1. The single most important factor in shaping security markets is public psychology.

2. To make money in the stock market you either have to be ahead of the crowd or very sure they are going in the same direction for some time to come.

3. Accepting losses is the most important single investment device to insure safety of capital.

4. The difference between the investor who year in and year out procures for himself a final net profit, and the one who is usually in the red, is not entirely a question of superior selection of stocks or superior timing. Rather, it is also a case of knowing how to capitalize successes and curtail failures.

5. One useful fact to remember is that the most important indications are made in the early stages of a broad market move. Nine times out of ten the leaders of an advance are the stocks that make new highs ahead of the averages.

6. There is a saying, “A picture is worth a thousand words.” One might paraphrase this by saying a profit is worth more than endless alibis or explanations. . . prices and trends are really the best and simplest “indicators” you can find. (more…)

CHANGE IS ESSENTIAL

  
  Education
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The stock market, just like life, can change on a dime.  In the market, just as in life, we must learn to adapt to change.  What separates the great trader from the rest of the crowd is his or her ability to change based on current market conditions.  In other words, NO EGO ALLOWED.  Mark Douglas, in his first book entitled The Disciplined Trader writes,
“There must be a difference between these two types of traders-the small majority of winners and the vast majority of losers who want to know what the winners know. The difference is that the traders who can make money consistently on a weekly, monthly, and yearly basis approach trading from the perspective of a mental discipline.  When asked for their secrets of success, they categorically state that they didn’t achieve any measure of consistency in accumulating wealth from trading until they learned self-discipline, emotional control, and the ability to change their minds to flow with the markets.”
We trade the current market conditions as they unfold with a plan to trade one way or the other.  To do otherwise would be to fight an undefeated foe.
 

10 Favorite Quotes from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

  
  Education
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  • There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.
  • The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among professionals.
  • I never lose my temper over the stock market. I never argue the tape. Getting sore at the market doesn’t get you anywhere.
  • They say you can never go poor taking profits. No, you don’t. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market. Where I should have made twenty thousand I made two thousand. That was what my conservatism did for me.
  • Remember that stocks are never too high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • A man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street…nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight.
  • After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was the sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!
  • Losing money is the least of my troubles. A loss never bothers me after I take it…But being wrong—not taking the loss—that is what does the damage to the pocketbook and to the soul.
  • Prices, like everything else, move along the line of least resistance. They will do whatever comes easiest.
  • The speculator’s chief enemies are always boring from within. It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear. In speculation when the market goes against you hope that every day will be the last day—and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope—the same ally that is so potent a success-bringer to empire builders and pioneers, big and little. And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit, and you get out—too soon. Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts…Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope.

No Patience on Entry

  
  Education
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Anticipating a signal that never comes is common for traders monitoring the market closely and eager to get some money working. For example, a good buying opportunity arises when a stock breaks from an ascending triangle. Jumping in ahead of the breakout is not an ideal situation because the probability of success buying an ascending triangle is not as good as buying a breakout from one. What causes this mistake? I think a fear of missing out on the maximum amount of profit or the fear of too much risk in buying a stock are the two most common mistakes. Essentially, the two guiding forces of the stock market are at work here; fear and greed. By buying early, we can realize a greater profit when the stock does breakout since we will have a lower average cost. Or, by buying early we can reduce risk since a breakout followed by a pull back through our stop will result in a smaller loss as we have a lower average cost. What tends to happen, however, is that the stock does not break out when expected and instead pulls back. This either leads to an unnecessary loss or an opportunity cost of the capital being tied up while other opportunities arise.

The Solution

The simple and obvious solution is to wait for the entry signal, but there are also some things you can do to help yourself stay disciplined. Rather than watch potentially good stocks tick by tick, use an alarm feature to alert you to when they actually make the break. Watching stocks constantly is somewhat hypnotic, and I think the charts can talk you in to making a trade. However, letting the computer watch the stock may help you avoid the stock’s evil trance. Another good solution is to focus on different thoughts when considering a stock. Don’t think about potential profits, don’t think about minimizing losses. Instead, focus in on the desire to execute high probability trades. It takes time to reprogram yourself, so persevere.

12 Things said by Jesse Livermore

  
  Education
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1. “An investor looks for safety… The speculator looks for a quick profit.” Livermore is saying that what differentiated him and other speculators from investors was: (1) a willingness to make bets with short duration and (2) not seeking safety.  Anyone reading about Livermore must remember that he was not a person who often/always followed his own advice. He eventually shot himself leaving a suicide note which included the sentence: “I am a failure.”

2. “A professional gambler is not looking for long shots, but for sure money…Since suckers always lose money when they gamble in stocks – they never really speculate…”  Livermore believed he was not a gambler since he only speculated when the odds were substantially in his favor (“sure money”).   Livermore’s statement reminds me of a quotation from Peter Lynch: “An investment is simply a [bet] in which you’ve managed to tilt the odds in your favor.” Livermore’s statement also reminds me of the poker player Puggy Pearson who famously talked about need to know “the 60/40 end of a proposition.”  When the odds are substantially in your favor you are not a gambler; when the odds are not substantially in your favor, you are a sucker.

3. “I trade in accordance to my means and always leave myself an ample margin of safety. …After I paid off my debts in full I put a pretty fair amount into annuities. I made up my mind I wasn’t going to be strapped and uncomfortable and minus a stake ever again.”  Livermore is not referring here to seeking a Benjamin Graham style “margin of safety” on each bet but rather to this: once you establish a big financial stake as a speculator, setting aside enough money so you don’t need to “return to go” financially is wise.  Livermore wanted a margin of safety in terms of safe assets so that he would always have a grubstake to start over in his chosen profession of speculation. On this point and others, he failed to follow his own advice.

4. “Keep the number of stocks you own to a controllable number. It’s hard to herd cats, and it’s hard to track a lot of securities.” There is only so much information a single person can track in terms of stocks whether you are in investor or a speculator. By focusing on a smaller number of stocks you are more likely to (1) know what you are doing (which lowers risk) and (2) find an informational advantage you can arbitrage.

5. “Only make a big move, a real big plunge, when a majority of factors are in your favor.” Only bet when the odds are substantially in your favor. And when that happens, bet in a big way.  The rest of the time, don’t do anything. (more…)

The James Bond Method To Stock Trading

  
  Education
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So you want to be high flyer? Drive fast cars, attract the hot women, and travel the world? What sounds like the James Bond way of living, isn’t actually too far off that of a successfully wild stock trader?

While this approach might not be the most risk-adverse style of trading , we can all learn a thing or two from James Bond when it comes to making big bucks in the stock market.

Don’t worry about the consequences

While he may get himself into some crazy situations, James Bond never lets fear get in the way of getting the job done. Bond will walk straight into dark hallways and rooms filled of bad guys, confident that he has the upper hand.

Just like Bond, you too can block out potential consequences of stock trading. Don’t let the fear of losing money or a failed trade scare you away. Head into any situation, confident in your trading strategy.

Never get stressed out

For as great as Bond is, no other action hero gets caught into messy situations as much as Bond does. From the initial capture to just seconds before he finds his way out, Bond never loses his cool.

He stays calm under pressure and focuses on what to do next, rather than what might happen.

Just like Bond, you too can learn to keep cool under difficult situations. Understand that you don’t necessarily need to sell at the first sign of red or throw more money at the stock. Simply stay calm, asses the situation, and find your way out.

Don’t stick around too long

Just as fast as the actual characters who play Bond shift, Bond himself never stays in one place too long. One second he could be in Russia and the next minute he is in Las Vegas. Even the time he spends with a woman is never too long to get him into any trouble.

Like Bond, you too should never stay around a stock too long. For quick action, jump from stocks to stocks finding the ones with the most momentum and skipping out on the stale ones.

Indulge

While Bond maybe running to stop a nuclear bomb from going off, there is always enough time for a drink or a romantic night with a lady friend.

While stock trading is a serious matter, it doesn’t have to all be about facts and figures. Make sure to set time aside and enjoy the fruits of your labor. It keeps the game interesting. (more…)

What is a ‘Zero-Sum Game’?

  
  Education
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Zero-sum games are the total opposite of win-win situations – such as an agreement that creates value between two counter-parties – or lose-lose situations, like war and mutually destructive relationships for instance. In real life, however, things are not always so clear-cut, and winners and losers are often difficult to quantify. New traders get confused and do not understand that in trading, profits come from the people on the other side of your trade that are making the wrong decision. The reason that trading is difficult is because you have to out smart someone to get their money, how you do this is what gives you your edge if you are profitable. In all financial markets buyers and sellers are always equal and the time frame in which they are trading determines if their decision was the right or wrong one at the time of their trade. Your entry is someone else’s exit and your losses are in some one else’s account as profits.

A zero-sum game is a situation where one person’s gain is always equivalent to another person’s loss, so the total wealth for the players and participants in the game is always a net change of  zero as a whole.  The financial contract markets of futures and options are a zero-sum game with several million players. Zero-sum games are found in game theory, but are less common than non-zero sum games. Poker and gambling are popular examples of what a zero-sum game is since the sum of the amounts won by some players equals the combined losses of the others. The money at a poker table at the start of the game does not grow it is just redistributed to the winners from the losers by the end of the game. All of the casino’s profits come from the gambler’s losses and all the gamblers profits are taken from the casino. Games like chess and tennis also fit this model becasue there is one winner and one loser they are always equal. In the financial markets, option contracts and future contracts are examples of zero-sum games, excluding transaction costs, for every long contract their is someone short the same contract. Some one has to sell a contract to create open interest and someone has to buy it, there has to be a winner and a loser at all times, one long and one short. Brokers and market makers disrupt the perfect balance of winners and losers by taking commissions or profiting from the bid/ask spreads. But, for every person who profits on a contract’s value going in their direction, there is a counter-party who loses who is on the other side. (more…)

The PROPER Use Of Hope and Fear

  
  Education
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If you’ve been involved in the markets for any length of time you will no doubt have heard of the twin pillars of market psychology, Hope and Fear (or sometimes Greed and Fear).

In fact, if you’ve ever been involved in an endeavour where you have something on the line – a business, a wager, a job, or even a date – you will have experienced Hope and Fear in some form and the devastation it can play on your psychology.

Experiencing Hope

For most traders, Hope looks like this:

They’ve just bought a stock or commodity, and they hope that it goes up.  Of course, this is the name of the game, we all hope it goes up if we are buying!  But then the stock starts to fall, and instead of selling out, the trader holds on with the hope that it will rise again.  The more the stock falls, the more they hope and pray that it will rise.

But they don’t realise – Hope does not equal Action.  And only our Actions make money in the stock market.

Experiencing Fear (more…)

5 Trading Frustrations and Solutions

  
  Education
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Top Trader Frustrations

  1. I cannot trade my plan!
    • You need to develop the skill to execute your trading plan under duress.
    • Use visualization exercise to see yourself successfully executing your trading plan during the day. The greater level of detail a trader uses in their visualization exercise the greater its effectiveness.
  2. I cut my winning trades too early!
    • Have profit targets
    • Take partial profits
    • Measure each day the missed profits that you could have obtained if you didn’t miss a setup, or if you didn’t cut your winning trades too early.
  3. I am not consistent with my trading
    • Establish a playbook with setups that work for you, and setups that don’t work for you.
    • Define the risk that you should take in setups based on whether they are A+, B, C setups (based on risk/reward and % win rate).
    • Track the amount of risk that you are taking on similar trades, so that the results can be properly analyzed. Risk 30% of your intraday stop loss on a A+ setup, 20% on a B setup, 10% on a C setup, 5% on a Feeler trade.
    • Do a trade review
      • Did I trade the best stocks today?
      • Did I recognize the market structure?
      • Did I push myself outside the comfort zone?
      • Things I did well
      • Things I could improve
  4. I cannot find a profitable trading system
    • Trading is a probability game, setups don’t work all the time, so don’t keep trying and throwing away trading setups without thoroughly testing them.
    • Get exposed to lots of different setups and trade the setups that make the most sense to you and works best for you.
  5. I lack the confidence to take trades
    • Have a detailed trading plan, place orders in advance in possible.
    • Put on feeler trades with 5-10% of the risk that you normally put on. Once you start to become more comfortable you can then put on your regular trades again.
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