Archives of “speculators” tag

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The Right Side

  
  Education
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A quote from one the best traders of our time, Jesse Livermore: “It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of all his mistakes. They say there are two sides to everything. But there is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side. It took me longer to get that general principle fixed firmly in my mind than it did most of the more technical phases of the game of stock speculation.”

Being a bull or a bear alone is meaningless out of the crucial context of the current market conditions. All that really matters for the great game of speculation is being on the “right side”, knowing when the markets are in a bull or a bear trend and deploying your speculative capital accordingly.

Once again Livermore ties speculation back into the speculator’s own internal emotions. He points out that it makes no sense to be bullish or bearish as a rule, but to carefully watch the market conditions in order to be on “the right side” at any given moment. Most speculators are burdened with an innate emotional bias to be bullish that is dangerous and must be eradicated if they wish to succeed in speculation.

A speculator must not foolishly try to bend the markets to his will, but instead prudently bend his will to the markets! If a bull trend is evident, be long. If a bear trend dominates, be short. An elite speculator doesn’t care at all which way the markets are moving, he just wants to be “right” and recognize the trend early enough to prudently deploy his own capital and be blessed to harvest profitable trades.

Forget the endless bull and bear arguments and don’t let any other speculators try to pigeonhole you into one of the two warring camps. Instead of being a perma-bull or perma-bear, instead strive to listen to the rhythm of the markets and simply be “right” about what is coming to pass next and trade accordingly.

Jesse Livermore / "How to trade stocks"

  
  Education
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–“All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical (technical) formations and patterns recur on a constant basis.”

–“The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.”

–Don’t take action with a trade until the market, itself, confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don’t be an impatient trader.

–“It is foolhardy to make a second trade, if your first trade shows you a loss. Never average losses. Let this thought be written indelibly upon your mind.”

–“Remember this: When you are doing nothing, those speculators who feel they must trade day in and day out, are laying the foundation for your next venture. You will reap benefits from their mistakes.”

–“When a margin call reaches you, close your account. Never meet a margin call. You are on the wrong side of a market. Why send good money after bad? Keep that good money for another day.”

–“Successful traders always follow the line of least resistance. Follow the trend. The trend is your friend.”

–A prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrong–opinions often are.

–Few people succeed in the market because they have no patience. They have a strong desire to get rich quickly.

–“I absolutely believe that price movement patterns are being repeated. They are recurring patterns that appear over and over, with slight variations. This is because markets are driven by humans–and human nature never changes.”

–When you make a trade, “you should have a clear target where to sell if the market moves against you. And you must obey your rules! Never sustain a loss of more than 10% of your capital. Losses are twice as expensive to make up. I always established a stop before making a trade.”

–“I am fully aware that of the millions of people who speculate in the markets, few people spend full time involved in the art of speculation. Yet, as far as I’m concerned it is a full-time job–perhaps even more than a job. Perhaps it is a vocation, where many are called but few are singled out for success.”

–“The big money is made by the sittin’ and the waitin’–not the thinking. Wait until all the factors are in your favor before making the trade.”

Speculation drives human progress

  
  Education
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Speculation, in all its forms, is what drives human progress. This is the core message behind Michael Bigger’s recent post, “The Desire to Speculate”.
An excerpt from Michael’s essay: 
“It is said that the desire to speculate is very strong in the American people. That is why our country has made greater progress than any other country in the world, because progress is the result of speculation. We are not referring merely to stock speculations, but to the word in its broadest sense. Every new undertaking is a speculation.

An inventor speculates on what he is going to invent. Often such speculations result in losses, because many inventors, or would-be-inventors, never accomplish very much. They spend their money, time, and efforts, and probably live years in poverty, and then if the invention is not profitable, they are heavy losers.

It is the same thing with every new business. It is purely a speculation…”  (more…)

Risk & Chance

  
  Education
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Here are some interesting quotes from ‘Risk & Chance’ (Dowie and Lefrere) that have a relevance to trading and speculation more generally:

Henslin (1967) notes …dice players behave as if they are controlling the outcome of the toss.  One of the ways they exert this is to toss the dice softly if they want a low number, or hard for a high number.  Another is to concentrate and exert effort when tossing.  These behaviours are quite rational if one believes that the game is a game of skill. 

As a trader I wish I could figure out what portion of my trading results can be attributed to luck, and what portion to skill. The problem is that trading seems to be a game of both skill and luck, so we spend half our time figuring out just how hard we should be throwing the dice. Splitting skill from luck is a problem for all speculators, but high frequency traders can find out much sooner than low frequency macro traders, who only take a few positions each year. In the latter case, it may be close to impossible to look back to a macro trader’s career and make this determination with any reasonable level of certainty.   (more…)

Quotes from The Little Book of Trading

  
  Education
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The Little book of trading is a must read for trend followers. Michael Covel brings down to all of us what is needed in order to succeed in trend following:

Some of the quotes need to be internalized by investors of trend following strategies..

David Druz

Trend traders are trying to capture risk premium from the hedgers. […]
Hedgers hope to minimize their exposure to unwanted risk. Speculators (i.e. trend followers assume risk for hedgers. […]
Hedgers are net losers in futures markets over the long run, and Druz’s trend trading approach is based on capturing this risk premium.

The more robust a system, the more volatile it tends to be!
There are whole families of trend trading ideas that seem to work forever on any market. The down side is they are very volatile because they are not curve-fitted.

Larry Hite

Hite has two basic rules about trading and life:
1) If you don’t bet, you can’t win.
2) If you lose all your chips, you can’t bet

Justin Vandergrift

While entry and exit is an overwhelming focus for new traders, it is only a small part of the recipe for winning in the trend follower’s cookbook. Money management is far more imperative to your success than worrying about a perfect entry.

Vandergrift, like many of the trend following traders, found through intense research that the only systems that really worked over time were long term trend following in nature. However, his real Aha! moment came when he put money managementinto his trading system equation. […] If you have a portfolio of markets, […] you want t risk an equal amount on every trade.

Michael Clarke

You want to look for trend following models that remain robust over long time periods and you want to include models that have flat to negative performance for periods of up to two years. The principles that allow a good model to work successfully may fall out of favour and stop working for a period of time, but if the model has validity, the long-term principles will reassert themselves over time. Don’t jump the gun in throwing away your models.

In order for a model to be accepted, you want it to trade all markets using the same rules and parameters. Your results should yield good performance across 90-plus percent of all markets tested. Also, no model should be accepted unless it shows stability of performance during tests involved with shifting parameters and altering rules. This is the definition of robust.

David Harding

Don’t get caught up constantly trying to lower your risks. Think of yourself as running a risk targeting business where you go find risk. No risk, no reward!

I think the efficient market hypothesis is quite useful too. One prediction it makes is that it is difficult to beat the markets. It’s just saying that the markets know better than you do. So the assumption that the markets know better than you do is quite a sensible and useful assumption. It certainly would lead you to approach [beating the markets] with humility and modesty.

Determination is the same as having wings. If at first you don’t succeed, try, try, and try again. Madonna always says, ‘I’m like a cockroach.’

Wisdom of Market Wizards

  
  Education
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“Perhaps the most important rule is to hold on to your winners and cut your losers. Both are equally important. If you don’t stay with your winners, you are not going to be able to pay for the losers.” – Michael Marcus

“The more a price pattern is observed by speculators, the more prone you are to have false signals. The more a market is the product of nonspeculative activity, the greater the significance of technical breakouts.” –Bruce Kovner

My take – Most commons are pennants and flags. And most obvious failed outbreaks are candles ended with the close below the intended trendline.

“The most important rule is to play great defense, not great offense. Everyday I assume every position I have is wrong. I know where my stop risk points are going to be. I do that so I can define my maximum drawdown. Hopefully, I spend the rest of the day enjoying positions that are going in my direction. If they are going against me, then I have a game plan for getting out.”
“… I believe the very best money is to be made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all the money by catching the trends in the middle. Well, for twelve years, I have often been missing the meat in the middle, but I have caught a lot of bottoms and tops. If you are a trend follower trying to catch the profits in the middle of a move, you have to use very wide stops. I’m not comfortable doing that. Also, markets trend only about 15% of the time; the rest of the time they move sideways.”
“Don’t focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.”
–Paul Tudor Jones (Big Big Big Fund Manager)

“The most important is discipline – I am sure everyone tells you that. Second, you have to have patience; if you have a good trade on, you have to be able to stay with it. Third, you need courafe to go into the market, and courage comes from adequate capitalization. Fifth, you need a strong desire to win.”
“You should have the attitude that if a trade loses, you can handle it without any problem and come back to do the next trade. You can’t let a losing trade get to you emotionally.” – 
Gary Bielfeldt

Quotes from The Little Book of Trading

  
  Education
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The Little book of trading is a must read for trend followers. Michael Covel brings down to all of us what is needed in order to succeed in trend following:

Some of the quotes need to be internalized by investors of trend following strategies..

David Druz

Trend traders are trying to capture risk premium from the hedgers. […]
Hedgers hope to minimize their exposure to unwanted risk. Speculators (i.e. trend followers assume risk for hedgers. […]
Hedgers are net losers in futures markets over the long run, and Druz’s trend trading approach is based on capturing this risk premium.

The more robust a system, the more volatile it tends to be!
There are whole families of trend trading ideas that seem to work forever on any market. The down side is they are very volatile because they are not curve-fitted.

Larry Hite (more…)

Trading Wisdom – Jesse Livermore

  
  Education
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“I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, “Well, you know this is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements – that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.”

In all of “Reminiscences” this crucial idea that the Really Big Money is always earned by prudently riding the large trends over time and not in day trading every minute fluctuation is one of the central themes of the book. Livermore hammers this again and again, attacking it from countless angles and spicing up all of his amazing lessons with his own enthralling personal experiences.

This old and successful speculator that Livermore mentions, Mr. Partridge, would always politely tell the younger speculators who asked him trading questions that it was a bull market. The young speculators were always eager to trade, but Partridge was old and battle-scarred enough to know that no mere mortal could even hope to catch every individual fluctuation so the wisest strategy was just to ride the major trends. His simple reply, which would annoy the youngsters since they couldn’t yet perceive the deep wisdom in it, was to subtly advise them to just ride the primary trend and not worry about rapid-fire trading.

If a particular market happens to be in a primary bull trend, then just be long and don’t worry about trying to interpret and trade upon the essentially random day-to-day market noise. If a particular market is in a primary bear trend, then either sit out in cash or stay short and wait for the trend to fully mature and run its course. Don’t try to frantically outguess the primary trend everyday, just accept it and trade with it and you will win in the end.

Soros Says "Crisis Far From Over, We Have Just Entered Act 2"

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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The bearish case has just gotten another notable supporter in the face of George Soros, who during his remarks at a conference in Vienna, said that the “we have only just entered Act II” of the global financial crisis.

Bloomberg reports:

Billionaire investor George Soros said “we have just entered Act II” of the crisis as Europe’s fiscal woes worsen.

“The collapse of the financial system as we know it is real, and the crisis is far from over,” Soros said today at a conference in Vienna. “Indeed, we have just entered Act II of the drama.”

Concern that Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis may spread sent the euro to a four-year low against the dollar on June 7 and has wiped out more than $4 trillion from global stock markets this year. Europe’s debt-ridden nations have to raise almost 2 trillion euros ($2.4 trillion) within the next three years to refinance maturing bonds and fund deficits, according to Bank of America Corp.

“When the financial markets started losing confidence in the credibility of sovereign debt, Greece and the euro have taken center stage, but the effects are liable to be felt worldwide,” Soros said.

One wonders if Soros, who made a name for himself originally in the currency markets, is involved in the current record FX volatility. Of course, with animosity toward “speculators” at unprecedented levels, it probably would not be very prudent of anyone to disclose they are now taking on Central Banks directly.

Common Characteristics between Successful Gamblers and Successful Speculators

  
Education, Video
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Just Listen :

On a warm summer’s evenin’ on a train bound for nowhere,
I met up with the gambler; we were both too tired to sleep.
So we took turns a starin’ out the window at the darkness
‘Til boredom overtook us, and he began to speak.
He said, “Son, I’ve made my life out of readin’ people’s faces,
And knowin’ what their cards were by the way they held their eyes.
So if you don’t mind my sayin’, I can see you’re out of aces.
For a taste of your whiskey I’ll give you some advice.” (more…)

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