Archives of “speculation” tag

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The Psychology Of Speculation – The Disconcerting Effect Of Sudden Losses And Gains

  
  Education
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Time for another classic trading book excerpt.  The subject is similar to the one in yesterday’s post. It is about limiting losses and ultimately becoming a better trader if you are willing to embark on that never ending journey to better understand yourself. James L. Fraser from Fraser Publishing clearly understood that. The introduction he wrote clearly shows his deep understanding of human psychology, trading and speculation. Human behavior never changes. That’s why I am a huge fan of old classics. Buy those books. Read them. Apply the wisdom imparted.

Henry Howard Harper: ‘The Psychology of Speculation – The Human Element in Stock Market Transactions’

Introduction
First privately printed by the author in 1926 and only found in secondhand stores at rare intervals this classic deserves a more wide spread audience. Harper’s human behavior material gives us insights into the handicapping prejudices that ruin our stock market theories and sound resolutions. Especially in our computer oriented age does the average investor seem incapable of calm reasoning , with the result that he often does precisely the opposite of what he had intended doing.

Moreover, Harper’s easy writing style clearly shows you how the correct ideas of theory are turned into the wrong formulas of practice, and how tickeritis, though mentally intoxicating, leads on to poverty. In a contrary way, we seldom see the favorite caprice of the stock market which is to violate precedent, and do the thing least expected of it. You had better believe it for there are no certainties in this investment world, and where you have no certainties, you should begin by understanding yourself. (more…)

3 Mistakes -Traders are Doing (101% It's All Mindset )

  
  Education
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If you agree with me that not a lot changes in the markets you won’t mind that I site an old study and will see the benefit of this little reminder of mine.

In 1974 Blair Stewart completes a study of 8,922 brokerage customer accounts.

The following mistakes are found:

1) Speculators showed a clear tendency to cut profits short, while letting their losses run.

2) Speculators were more likely to be long than short, even though prices generally declined during the 9 years of the study.

3) Longs bought on weakness, and shorts sold on strength, indicating they were price-level rather than price-movement traders.

If you are currently struggling in your trading you might like to consider these three well repeated mistakes and develop a plan that you can follow so as not to fall foul of them.

Fear

  
  Education
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  fear-daytrading
 

One of my favorite bits of trading advice was given 85 years ago by Jesse Livermore in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator: 

“The speculator’s chief enemies are always boring from within.

“It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear. In speculation when the market goes against you, you hope that every day will be the last day and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope… to the same ally that is so potent a success-bringer to empire builders and pioneers, big and little. And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit, and you get out too soon. Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to.

The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts. He has to reverse what you might call his natural impulses. Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit. It is absolutely wrong to gamble in stocks the way the average man does.” (more…)

Speculators, Skeptics & Suckers

  
  Education
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  • Speculators jump into stocks in the late stages of a Bear market and into the early stages of the Bull market; they are the gamblers; and they are willing to accept higher relative risk to capture the largest price movements that occur later, when the Skeptics and Suckers are buying in larger numbers.
  • Skeptics wait for the Speculators to make the first move and to see real evidence of economic recovery before buying into a Bull market. Skeptics don’t jump in; they move in increments; and they usually miss the biggest price movements, both up and down. Put simply, Skeptics make their money when neither fear nor greed are at peak levels.  There is also a sub-category of Skeptic, which are the Contrarians, who are skeptical to the degree that the most prudent position is the opposite of the herd.
  • Suckers will buy or sell at any point during a market cycle but tend to buy more at higher price levels and sell more at lower price levels; therefore, as a whole, Suckers are the last to join a Bull market and the last to abandon it.

These are generalizations and most investors will exhibit characteristics of all three types at various points of a market cycle.  For example, at the market cycle extremes–the highest and lowest points–many Speculators and Skeptics become Suckers.  Also, there are hybrid forms (e.g. Speculative Suckers, Skeptical Speculators, Perma-Suckers, and so on).

Jesse Livermore / "How to trade stocks"

  
  Education
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–“All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical (technical) formations and patterns recur on a constant basis.”

–“The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.”

–Don’t take action with a trade until the market, itself, confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don’t be an impatient trader.

–“It is foolhardy to make a second trade, if your first trade shows you a loss. Never average losses. Let this thought be written indelibly upon your mind.”

–“Remember this: When you are doing nothing, those speculators who feel they must trade day in and day out, are laying the foundation for your next venture. You will reap benefits from their mistakes.”

–“When a margin call reaches you, close your account. Never meet a margin call. You are on the wrong side of a market. Why send good money after bad? Keep that good money for another day.”

–“Successful traders always follow the line of least resistance. Follow the trend. The trend is your friend.”

–A prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrong–opinions often are.

–Few people succeed in the market because they have no patience. They have a strong desire to get rich quickly.

–“I absolutely believe that price movement patterns are being repeated. They are recurring patterns that appear over and over, with slight variations. This is because markets are driven by humans–and human nature never changes.”

–When you make a trade, “you should have a clear target where to sell if the market moves against you. And you must obey your rules! Never sustain a loss of more than 10% of your capital. Losses are twice as expensive to make up. I always established a stop before making a trade.”

–“I am fully aware that of the millions of people who speculate in the markets, few people spend full time involved in the art of speculation. Yet, as far as I’m concerned it is a full-time job–perhaps even more than a job. Perhaps it is a vocation, where many are called but few are singled out for success.”

–“The big money is made by the sittin’ and the waitin’–not the thinking. Wait until all the factors are in your favor before making the trade.”

Think Less & Keep It Simple

  
  Education
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Every once in awhile I read something from another trader who I respect that I really wish I wrote myself. Today’s post from Jeff Cooper is a must-read:

“One of the most difficult things to get investors and traders to understand is that no matter how much they investigate an investment, they will probably do better if they did less. This is certainly counter-intuitive, but the way that our brains function almost guarantees that this will happen. This kind of failure also happens to those investors frequently regarded as the smartest. In essence, the more information that investors have, the more opportunity that they have to choose the misinformation that suits their emotional purposes.

 

Speculation is observation, pure and experiential. Thinking isn’t necessary and often just gets in the way. Yet everywhere we turn, we read and hear opinion after opinion and explanation on top of explanation which claim to connect the dots between economic cause and market effect. Most of the marketplace is long on rationale and explanation and short on methods. (more…)

Observation, Experience, Memory and Mathematics

  
  Education
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“Observation, experience, memory and mathematics – these are what the successful trader must depend on. He must not only observe but remember at all times what he has observed. He cannot bet on the unreasonable or the unexpected, however strong his personal convictions may be about man’s unreasonableness or however certain he may feel that the unexpected happens very frequently. He must bet always on probabilities – that is, try to anticipate them. Years of practice at the game, of constant study, of always remembering, enable the trader to act on the instant when the unexpected happens as well as when the expected comes to pass.

“A man can have great mathematical ability and an unusual power of accurate observation and yet fail in speculation unless he also possesses the experience and the memory. And then, like the physician who keeps up with the advances of science, the wise trader never ceases to study general conditions, to keep track of developments everywhere that are likely to affect or influence the course of the various markets. After years of the game it becomes a habit to keep posted. He acts almost automatically. He acquires the invaluable professional attitude that enables him to beat the game – at times! This difference between the professional and the amateur or occasional trader cannot be overemphasized. I find, for instance, that memory and mathematics help me very much. Wall Street makes its money on a mathematical basis. I mean, it makes its money by dealing with facts and figures.” (more…)

Secrets of Jesse Livermore

  
  Education
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1. Money Management:
    * “I trade on my own information and follow my own methods.”
    * “The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses on Wall Street, even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for regular wages.”

2. Business of Investing:
    * “I believe that anyone who is intelligent, conscientious, and willing to put in the necessary time can be successful on Wall Street.  As long as they realize the market is a business like any other business, they have a good chance to prosper.”
3. The Investor Self:
    * “My satisfaction always came from beating the market, solving the puzzle.  The money was the reward, but it was not the main reason I loved the market.  The stock market is the greatest, most complex puzzle ever invented – and it pays the biggest jackpot…it was never the money that drove me.  It was the game, solving the puzzle, beating the market that had confused and confounded the greatest minds in history.  For me, that passion, the juice, the exhilaration was in beating the game, a game that was a living dynamic riddle…”
4. Market Analysis:
    * “What beat me was not having the brains enough to stick to my own game – that is, to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favored my play.”
    * “It cost me millions to learn that another dangerous enemy to a trader is his susceptibility to the urgings of a magnetic personality when plausibly expressed by a brilliant mind.”
5. Routines:
    * “It is what people actually did in the stock market that counted – not what they said they were going to do.”
    * “The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world.  But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer.  They will die poor.” (more…)

Speculation drives human progress

  
  Education
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Speculation, in all its forms, is what drives human progress. This is the core message behind Michael Bigger’s recent post, “The Desire to Speculate”.
An excerpt from Michael’s essay: 
“It is said that the desire to speculate is very strong in the American people. That is why our country has made greater progress than any other country in the world, because progress is the result of speculation. We are not referring merely to stock speculations, but to the word in its broadest sense. Every new undertaking is a speculation.

An inventor speculates on what he is going to invent. Often such speculations result in losses, because many inventors, or would-be-inventors, never accomplish very much. They spend their money, time, and efforts, and probably live years in poverty, and then if the invention is not profitable, they are heavy losers.

It is the same thing with every new business. It is purely a speculation…”  (more…)

Risk & Chance

  
  Education
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Here are some interesting quotes from ‘Risk & Chance’ (Dowie and Lefrere) that have a relevance to trading and speculation more generally:

Henslin (1967) notes …dice players behave as if they are controlling the outcome of the toss.  One of the ways they exert this is to toss the dice softly if they want a low number, or hard for a high number.  Another is to concentrate and exert effort when tossing.  These behaviours are quite rational if one believes that the game is a game of skill. 

As a trader I wish I could figure out what portion of my trading results can be attributed to luck, and what portion to skill. The problem is that trading seems to be a game of both skill and luck, so we spend half our time figuring out just how hard we should be throwing the dice. Splitting skill from luck is a problem for all speculators, but high frequency traders can find out much sooner than low frequency macro traders, who only take a few positions each year. In the latter case, it may be close to impossible to look back to a macro trader’s career and make this determination with any reasonable level of certainty.   (more…)

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