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CFTC commitments of traders: EURUSD shorts are trimmed but still against the price trend this week

  
Analysis, Forex
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Forex futures positioning data for the week ending March 3, 2020

  • EUR short 87K vs 114K short last week. Shorts decreased by 27K
  • GBP long 35K vs 30K long last week. Longs increased by 5K
  • JPY short 42K vs 56K short last week. Shorts decreased by 14k
  • CHF short 3K vs 1K long last week. Shorts increased by 4K
  • AUD short 52k vs 44K short last week. Shorts increased by 8K
  • NZD short 17K vs 15K short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
  • CAD long 11k vs 15K long last week. Longs increased by 4K

Highlights:

  • The EUR remains the largest speculative position and it is still short, but there was a relatively large liquidation of 27K.  The EURUSD bottomed on February 20. The price has been up 9 of the last 11 trading days.  The squeeze higher seems to have led to some liquidation of the short positions. Traders are still offsides given the recent sharp move back higher.
  • The JPY has been getting stronger as stocks and rates tumbled.  The USDJPY is trading at the lowest level since August 27 (higher JPY).  Speculative positions remain short JPY (long USD), and losing money.  Like the EUR, the position has been trimmed but traders remain short the JPY (long the USD) and against the price trend this week.
  • The AUD has moved higher off the low from last Friday. Speculative positions in the AUD saw an increase of 8K in the net short position. The short is losing against the rising value of the AUD this week.
  • The speculative position in the GBP (Long 35K) is benefiting this week as the GBPUSD has marched higher last Friday’s low.

Forex futures positioning data for the week ending March 3, 2020

Moody’s says global manufacturing outlook for 2020 is negative

  
Analysis, Economy
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Moody’s on the manufacturing outlook

  • Most manufacturign sectors will likely experience only modest profit growth or even slight declines in 2020
  • Agricultural, transportation and utilities end markets exhibit weak growth prospects
  • Aerospace and defense segment has strong growth prospects
  • Key drivers for global manufacturing include weak earnings growth expectations and deteriorating sentiment

If Moody’s track record is any indication, then now is the time to buy the stocks of manufacturers relating to agricultural, transportation and utilities industries.

UK election – Here is why GBP traders are freaking out about a possible hung parliament

  
Analysis, Politics
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The latest YouGov poll shows the projected majority for the Conserviative party shrinking

And also does not rule out a hung parliament (a hung parliament is within the margin of error).
Here is how the YouGov polling has evolved, run your trend spotting indicators over these ….
The latest YouGov poll shows the projected majority for the Conserviative party shrinking

Moody’s: Global economy will remain fragile in 2020

  
  Analysis
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Moody’s weighs in with some commentary about the world economy

  • Global economy will remain fragile next year as risks to credit conditions rise
  • Rising political and geopolitical risks are exacerbating slow growth
  • That reduces economies’ abilities to respond to shocks
  • Trade uncertainty will continue to disrupt supply chains and weigh on investment
  • Overall global growth will remain lackluster amid deceleration in US and China
  • Recession risks will remain elevated in Europe and in the US
Adding that they do not expect a recession next year but recession risks are building amid a backdrop of trade policy uncertainty in the global economy.
They also mention that global interest rates will remain low and that yield curves are to remain flat for several years going forward.
I think this is pretty much the base-case scenario for the global economy at this point i.e. slow and sluggish growth with rising risks of things turning into something worse.
Any potential rebound in global trade and manufacturing conditions will likely take a few years to come about so if we can weather that storm, then perhaps the recession can will be kicked down the road again for a few more years.

Moody’s on Japan – A1 rating affirmed, stable outlook maintained

  
Analysis, Economy
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Moody’s affirms Japan’s A1 ratings; maintains stable outlook

  •  says expects Japan’s fiscal and debt metrics to stabilize in the next few years
  •  says Japan’s sovereign rating and outlook continue to be driven over medium term by impact of social considerations on economy and public finances
  •  says traction on economic reform likely to partly offset pressure on potential growth from population decline

Big Tech wins US talent war as Trump visa policy hurts Indian IT

  
  Analysis
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While the immigration policies of U.S. President Donald Trump give the impression of slamming the door on foreign talent, a closer look at visa data shows that the big four American tech companies are accelerating their drive to attract and retain highly skilled professionals.

In contrast, the biggest losers are Indian information technology companies, such as Cognizant Technology Solutions, Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services, who had long been the biggest employers of foreign IT talent in the U.S.

At issue is the H-1B visa, the permit that allows foreign talent with specialized skills to reside and work in the U.S. for up to six years. People from India, especially with computer skills, account for the biggest percentage — 74% — of H-1B visa applicants, followed by those from China at 11%.

Workers who enter the U.S. under the H-1B have the opportunity to apply for permanent residency and start their own business. The prospect of the American dream has enabled the U.S. to attract some of the best minds in the world and has been the engine of innovation in the country.

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